Well, folks pool 2 for the Kentucky Derby & Kentucky Oaks futures
has just opened and I seem some potential value in them as I look to
connect on another Funny Cide this year (I had him in pool 1 last
year for which I was rewarded with a $188 dollar payoff. In fact the
only two horses I bet last year ran 1-2 in the Derby making my
futures record to date 3-6 which I think is pretty damn good.)
First of all in the Derby the two horses I like a bit are Tapit &
Rock Hard Ten.
Tapit runs on Saturday in the Florida Derby so you may want to wait
to see that race before betting on him. A moderate finish is ok,
dead last, a win or a close up in-the-money finish are not. The
latter two will depress his value while the former might mean he
will not run. Bear in mind this is his first start this year so he
should need the race though his trainer is notorious for having
horses like this ready to go off a break.
Rock Hard Ten is a lot lighter raced then I like @ this stage of the
game but he has looked so good in his two starts to date that if he
is near his line of 50-1 it may look like a gift after the fact. He
has the breeding to go this far now all he needs is the seasoning &
a route race. Do not go crazy on this one but 50-1 is reasonable
odds to offset the risks.
In the Oaks, there are only 3 horses worthy of considering, they are
Ashado, Halfbridled & Madcapescapade. The latter maybe the only to
offer any significant value as well as having the potential to be an
absolute freak. However, if either of the former two are above 3-1
or 2-1 in the pools take the shot because on Oaks Day neither will
be that big. Good luck to all.
Dave Gonzalez
surethingselections.com