James,
Relax. Everyone has bad days. The 9th was a nice box hit for an
exacta & most of your analysis made sense. From a vlue standpoint
your handicapping was spot on but the Fairgrounds is playing very
chalky this season & that is the death pf the value player. However,
do not change your approach to fit the track. This past summer @
Saratoga was exceptionally chalky but I did not change my approach &
while I have had better seasons for sure this year was not all that
bad though & were it not for a DQ that cost me a $40,000 pick 4 &
Pat Day riding like an idiot on Travers Day w/ a 43 & 1 half mile
going 7F I would have picked up another pick 4 for about $15,000
that I would have had multiple times. These things happen & while
that does not make you feel much better @ the time the best thing is
to just keep plugging away or you might as well give this game up.
One thing I did notice that stuck out as memorable in your picks was
you mentioned that a horse was not bred to go a route but that his
trainer did well w/ that type. In that case I almost always defer to
the breeding side because a trainer cannot usually get a horse to
outrun it's pedigree when you are referring to distance limitations.
For that matter, trainers can often not get dirt horses w/ no grass
pedigree to handle that surface even when the trainer is a master
grass trainer. There are however, more exceptions to this rule than
the distance one. Hope this helps some & it is not meant as a shot @
your handicapping but merely an observation.
Dave Gonzalez
owner
Surethingselections.com
--- In surethingselections@yahoogroups.com, "greatlakes_48101"
<greatlakes_48101@y...> wrote:
> Well it was a off day for me thats forsure,didn't even have one hit
> that was pretty sad I must admit.I guess my best race was the 9th
> having the 3 horse at 12-1 in my pick,I'll have to try to redeem
> myself with tomorrows races.
> James.H