Melanie,
So far I still think Declan's Moon looks like the horse. That being
said his bandwagon is getting crowded & the time to bet him may have
already passed. The 9-1 he was in the first Derby futures pool will
probably be higher than he will be in the race unless he tosses a
dud in the Santa Anita Derby. Also if he is bet hard he is not worth
the risk because 1) he has never raced outside of SoCal 2) his
training schedule is a bit light. So you may have to wait until
Derby Day to decide what to do with this one.
I also thought the runner-up in the Santa Catalina, Going Wild,
looked pretty good. He should build on that race and may offer some
value. Spanish Chestnut looked ok but right now he does not look
like top flight material. He will need to show me more in his next
start which is always possible for a three year old @ this time of
year.
At Oaklawn I thought Afleet Alex ran a nice race but I am still not
convinced this horse's breeding will allow him to get the distance.
His dosage numbers are fine, but those are only a tool like any
other and in my experience the Afleet lineage in a horse will limit
him to about a 9 furlongs. Razor looked ok as well but I think the
only way he'll get 10 furlongs is if they push him out of a plane on
top of the finish line. Incidentally I feel the same way about Proud
Accolade who I really want to see run a big race next out & enhance
his status more because I want to bet against him very badly in the
Derby.
In Florida, High Fly looked very good & should move forward off that
effort. He may, however peak a bit too soon if he takes a big jump
forward. The runner-up in the Fountain Of Youth, Bandini, also loked
very nice & should get better w/ seasoning as well as distance.
Lost In The Fog also looked good & his dosage numbers say he will be
able to go the distance. However visually & from my experience he
looks more like a sprinter. I would love to see them send him to NY
for the Gotham & thenif he passes that go in any one of the many 9
furlong final preps but I do not think this is the plan this camp is
going to follow. So we may have to judge him on only one route race
which can be very tricky. The price would likely be my deciding
factor here as well.
Rockport Harbor still has my interest peaked but if Stewart Elliot
is going to be his pilot it's a negative. Having watched this guy
all winter I have given more credit to Smarty Jones because I do not
think Mr. Elliot is a talented rider in any sense of the word. I
could go on forever here but enough said for now. That being said
Rockport Harbor has talent heart & speed along with a pedigree that
says he can get the trip, but only barely.
I think of the ones on the trail I have yet to mention, Sun King may
be around as might Wilko though I am not thrilled w/ either one
really. Several others that are on the trail that I think have
little chance right now are Distictive Trick, Storm Surge, Scrappy T
& Crimson Stag all of whom have sprint pedigrees. The rest other
than that are in too much of a gray area for me to say more right
now.

As far as Saint Liam, I do not know what happened except that
perhaps he did not like the strip. He is a better horse than that &
should rebound in his next race if nothing went physically wrong w/
him in this race. From what I read no one else including his
connections seems to know why he did't fire either. The other thing
is Rock Hard Ten ran a nice race but I look forward to playing
against him, especially if he ships East. He so far looks like a
California horse & his effort on Saturday while nice, did not look
to be nor did the figure suggest it to be of great caliber. Hope all
this helps.
Dave Gonzalez
owner
surethingselections.com

--- In surethingselections@yahoogroups.com, "Melanie"
<melaniefarsante@y...> wrote:
>
>
> Dave,
> who are your top Derby picks so far? What did you think of the
Derby
> preps this year so far? What happened in the Big Cap to Saint Liam
I
> know you thought highly of him last season? Thanks sweetie.
> Hugs & kisses.
> Mel