Hmm, what's the fastest running rating you've ever seen? A 1-17 only
have a .55 chance of taking the extra base against Clemente. If the
run expectancy of .55(extra base) + .45(lost baserunner + lost out)
is greater than the run expectancy of no extra base, I'd send the
runner. The "lost baserunner + lost out" is a doozie, though. In most
cases I wouldn't, but there are probably situations where it makes
sense.

I think with a 1-17 runner on third, for example, I would try to score
on a flyball to Clemente for the second out. Your run expectancy in
that case couldn't be any lower than .55, which is about what it would
be at the start of the inning. On the other hand, with two outs and a
runner on third, you'd probably need a hit in the next at bat to score
the runner. Your RE's not dismal, but I'm pretty sure it's < .55

Wes

On Dec 20, 2007 3:45 PM, Eric Lutzker <ericlutzker@...> wrote:
> i recently got the '71 cards that they just last year redid for
> super-advanced and looking at the pirates i see that roberto clemente's
> arm is a -6. now i don't remember seeing anything better than a -5
> before (am i just remembering poorly). i guess if anyone deserves it it
> is clemente. so how about it? has strat ever assigned anyone a -7? and
> has anyone else ever gotten a -6. would anyone ever try to send a
> runner on this guy? thanks, e