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a week to pull hair out (what little remaining)   Message List  
Reply | Forward Message #85402 of 87214 |
## Re: a week to pull hair out (what little remaining) MORE

No no. Some of this is very wrong. The sim does not match bad pitching with
good opponents. It is randomish with adjustment for prefer-to-face and not
allowing the same SP to go more than once against the same opponent.

Moreover, matching bad pitching to good hitting would accomplish absolutely
nothing toward matching stats. This is something Jeff and Dave have explained
countless times on this list.

A pitcher who allowed double the league's batting average will allow about
double the batting average of every hitter he faces; a .200 hitter will hit .400
and a .400 hitter will hit .800. Matching him to good hitting would in no way
help achieve the targets.

I am always so curious about where these assumptions come from. Did you think
you heard someplace that pitching assignments are manipulated to aid
stat-matching, or did you make that up on your own somehow? We should try to be
careful about stating assumptions as statements. There is always a lot of
confusion around how pitching is reconciled with hitting.

--- In scoresheet-talk@yahoogroups.com, "bluechip_10" <bluechip_10@...> wrote:
>
> Couple of points...
>
> The order you list your starters determines who gets any extra starts. So #1
will get the extra start if he has extra start available. If not #2 will get and
so on.
>
> The order you list your starters has no bearing on the order they will appear
in a given week. Your #1 may get the 4th game of the week for instance.
>
> For matchups, think about it like this. You face two teams and for simplicity
sake lets say one has a huge offensive week and the other has a poor hitting
week. Don't you think the sim will try and match up your starting pitchers who
got hit harder against the lineup that hit well? and vice versa, any of your
pitchers who threw great games will get to face the opposition with the weak
hitting. The sim can't make everything work out as well as it does in general
without some kind of manipulation. It's not random.
>
>
>
> --- In scoresheet-talk@yahoogroups.com, "Carl" <togatx@> wrote:
> >
> > From Carl (origianl poster)
> > I think my original post got lost in the various translations. Derek and
otehrs have made some very astute observations though.
> >
> > What I was trying to ask, in general, does it really make any material
difference in Scoresheet game to match pitchers up or are we better off to leave
that up to the way the SIMM matches pitchers up week to week.?
> >
> > On the surface, it makes sense that it would should make a difference.
However, the BA/OBA/Slugging adjustments made when leftys face LH batters seems
much greater than when Rightys face RH batters, so I tend to look for matchups
when the other team's best hitters are leftys and don't think the adjustments
are materially enough to do RH pitcher vs RH hitters matchups unless I am
playing a powerful team (even if they are loaded with predominantly RH hitters)
whom I want someone like Lincecum to start against.
> >
> > If I'm playing a weaker team, I will typically use my 4th and 5th best
starters. That, in itself, may be why I seem to lose more games against teams
that I think my team should roll over.
> >
> > So the question is?? If you DO NOT use any pitcher ..Prefer to Face
teams..how does the SIMM determine which specific pitcher would pitch vs Team A
and which pitcher would pitch vs Team B? Does it start each week with pitcher #
1 and then to go # 2 and then # 3 and so forth? If so, would anything be
effected (either positively or negatively) by changing the order of your
pitching rotation each week, say moving your # 1 (say Lincecum as an example)
one week, to # 3 another week, and then back to # 1 another?
> >
> > Since I suppose teams can look at other team's starting rotation orders,
they can try to match up specific pitcher vs specific pitcher matchups to their
advantage by not matching their best pitcher up as # 1 (maybe using their worst)
when Lincecum starts. Maybe their best pitcher is slotted as # 2 or # 3 so they
dont have to matchup vs Lincecum and just write that one game off by using their
worst pitcher in the # 1 slot.
> >
> > But if the SIMM doesn't follow any particular order of starters when playing
out games, then that would not have any bearing. If it does, then I think it
would. Wouldn't it? Anyone have any thoughts?
> >
> > And in a typical 6 game week, if three pitchers get two starts in Real
Baseball, if you DO NOT use pitching matchup preference, how does the Scoresheet
SIMM decide which of those 3 pitchers gets that 6th game in Scoresheet game?
> >
> > Carl
>





Sun Jul 12, 2009 8:28 pm

garthhewitt
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Forward
Message #85402 of 87214 |
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Final stats of 2 teams I faced this week 6.50 era..... 239 BA So my teams go 3-3 and go ..what the ....? and look back on games trying to figure out whats the...
Carl
togaman007
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Jul 1, 2009
12:13 am

what league is this, Carl? Would like to look at your results. Tom...
Tom Hanrahan
han60man
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Jul 1, 2009
4:37 pm

... NL 322 Maybe I am missing something in my settings but I dont understand how a guy like Paulino can give up 3 runs in one game in which he pithed one...
Carl
togaman007
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Jul 3, 2009
11:50 pm

well Carl, since Paulino hadn't pitched in a few weeks prior, & you prob. had him in back then or prior anyway?: I'd say it's a combined stat result. He's been...
soxknation
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Jul 4, 2009
3:22 pm

mislabelled (sp?), that's really season ERA (on date)... oh & as long as I'm dup. posting meant to start that by saying "well, Carl, my guess is... (etc)"....
soxknation
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Jul 4, 2009
3:30 pm

Yes I get he has been brutal but THIS Particular week Paulino ONLY only pitched in real baseball as a starter in one 7 inning performance in which he gave up 3...
Carl
togaman007
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Jul 4, 2009
9:37 pm

Given the recent run of complaints like these, I think the Bartons might find a less testy market if they just dumped the sim and turned each week's outcomes...
bostonibis
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Jul 5, 2009
4:53 pm

Well, they get complaints that the outcomes and too random and complaints that the outcomes are not random enough. The more I read these complaints the more I...
garthhewitt
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Jul 6, 2009
6:27 pm

I agree. I also think people tend to forget that performance in the sim isn't just based on what your guy did in real life... it's also based on what the guys...
Derek Hiemforth
derekfnord
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Jul 6, 2009
6:37 pm

Who a pitcher faced in real life and the park they pitched in is totally irrelevant. The simulator treats a game in PETCO Park against the Nationals exactly...
kwarrenca
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Jul 8, 2009
6:05 pm

So you're telling me that if Tim Lincecum pitches a shutout against the Nationals, then he's equally likely to pitch a shutout against the toughest lineup in...
Derek Hiemforth
derekfnord
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Jul 8, 2009
7:45 pm

Well, the Nationals' offense isn't actually that bad, so your examle isn't the best. But the sim does NOT compensate for quality of competition or for the...
Ian Thistle
jock_mcflagrant
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Jul 8, 2009
7:55 pm

... And that's the only adjustment I was ever talking about. :-) - Derek...
Derek Hiemforth
derekfnord
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Jul 8, 2009
8:28 pm

Not quite, but close. The strength of the real life lineup faced by a pitcher is irrelevent for scoresheet purposes. That having been said, Timmy goes 9...
Paul Finkelstein
paulhfinkels...
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Jul 8, 2009
7:58 pm

... But it's not irrelevant for real-life purposes. How well a pitcher fares in Scoresheet is going to be based on: 1. His pitching results that week (raw...
Derek Hiemforth
derekfnord
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Jul 8, 2009
8:32 pm

you wrote: "So Joe Pitcher pitched 8 innings IRL and only gave up one run while striking out 9 and walking 1. That's great. But if he was facing the Nationals...
kwarrenca
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Jul 9, 2009
4:00 pm

I think I was muddling the issue by mentioning who he faced in real life. It isn't really relevant (and I knew it didn't affect the sim)... I guess I was just...
Derek Hiemforth
derekfnord
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Jul 9, 2009
5:52 pm

From Carl (origianl poster) I think my original post got lost in the various translations. Derek and otehrs have made some very astute observations though. ...
Carl
togaman007
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Jul 12, 2009
12:51 pm

Couple of points... The order you list your starters determines who gets any extra starts. So #1 will get the extra start if he has extra start available. If...
bluechip_10
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Jul 12, 2009
7:06 pm

No no. Some of this is very wrong. The sim does not match bad pitching with good opponents. It is randomish with adjustment for prefer-to-face and not...
garthhewitt
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Jul 12, 2009
8:28 pm

Ok, then why, unless the prefer to face option is used, would the order of appearance for starters in a given week not follow the order they are listed? Of...
bluechip_10
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Jul 12, 2009
11:42 pm

Thank you for addressing this .. this is one of the unknowns I have always wondered about in Scoresheet. I get that one pitcher can't start agaisnt the same...
Carl
togaman007
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Jul 13, 2009
1:49 am

The answer to most of these questions were just covered last week in the notes the Bartons included with your results. For example, " ... 'carry-over' starts...
Stephen Shelby
snowschmidt
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Jul 13, 2009
2:01 am

Ive had that situation come up several times but didnt make any changes. LMK if that # 5 guys get two starts this week. Even then, since this week has seven...
Carl
togaman007
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Jul 13, 2009
4:28 am

Which pitcher starts which game is randomly generated, within the constraint that a pitcher can't start twice against the same team in one week, and the...
kwarrenca
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Jul 13, 2009
3:17 am

I thought it meant he WILL face that team, not is MORE Likely to face" Is that not correct? If I understand it correctly, one poster mentioned something about...
Carl
togaman007
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Jul 13, 2009
4:28 am

Carl, you confused a couple of issues. Steve was saying he's sure about his #1 guy getting two starts. Ken was saying the SP is more likely to be assigned to...
garthhewitt
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Jul 13, 2009
6:38 am

I'm not sure where, in one of the instructions, the weekly notes or here, Jeff or Dave explained that they didn't want #1 pitchers facing the other number ones...
garthhewitt
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Jul 13, 2009
3:33 am

Carryover stats should NOT have affected Paulino's crappy appearance for you; it appears to be a case, as best I can tell, of the fact that some randomness...
Tom Hanrahan
han60man
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Jul 6, 2009
9:35 pm

Shhhhh. People only want to point at the sim when they think they're getting screwed over. Conversely, when players are overacheiving in scoresheet, it's due...
bluechip_10
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Jul 6, 2009
10:00 pm
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