Saturday Racing 10 Year Trends Mar 11th.



SANDOWN

2.10 Nov H'cap Hurdle: A modest race for favourites (23%) with
6yo having an exceptional record with 8/10 wins. Only one winner
carried more than 11st 2lbs and with 8/10 also winning last completed
race this suggests Billyandi may be worth ew support. Ignoring the
stats
Tokala may be interesting - having backed it last week it was given
a
tender ride by McCoy who rides again this week over the longer trip.

2.45 H'cap Chase: Looks a trappy heat with form figures of many
runners
having more letters than numbers! Poor favourites race at 20% with
lower
weighted horses aged 8-10yrs having best record. Supreme Catch is a
possible
contender on these criteria.

3.20 Imperial Cup: M Pipe has a great record in this event however
his last
3 winenrs all won LTO. Its also worth noting that 5yo have the best
record
in this event with 7/10 wins. 8/10 winners also carried 11st 1lb or
less thus
Tarlac just gets my vote.

3.55 NH Bumper: All races won by 4/5yo with N Henderson/M Fitzgerald
picking up
4 out of last 7 races. Karello Bay is therefore the preferred of the
stables
runners based on Sthe jockey bookings.

WOLVERHAMPTON

2.25 6f H'CAP: No favourite has won this in all 7 races run since
1999. N Littmoden
has won race three times and stall 4 has provided 4/7 winners. Lower
weighted horses
(9st or less) also have best record. This all seems to suggest that
One More Round
could be primed to break a long losing streak (since 2002) but not
one to
mortgage the house on!!

3.00 2M H'CAP; A win on last two outings is a common feature in most
past winners
and with 4yo also having the best strike rate Desperation looks a
possible winner.

3.35 LINCOLN TRIAL: weak event for favourites with either a low/high
draw
seemingly preefrred. Winners tend to have top recent AW form or are
having a
first run of season ahead of the true Lincoln target. K Ryan has
three in the
race and it looks like these may be the ones to focus on. As all
past winners
aged 4-6yrs this doesnt help narrow down the satbles runenrs that
much but if
pressed Id go for Divine Gift ahead of My Paris

4.10 1M+ Maiden; Strong favourites race with top southern yards
usually proving
the winner. All 5 winners were 5th or better LTO thus Just Logic
looks a solid
choice in this.


SATURDAY NAPS SELECTIONS

PHIL EVANS - Karello Bay 3.55 Sandown
CAROL EVANS - Victram 3.20 Sandown


http://www.evans996.freeserve.co.uk/SaturdayNapChallenge.htm