Saturday Racing Trends Jan 14th.

Warwick's card is the most established today and hopefully has the
most reliable past trends.

In the 2.00 race, since upgraded to Gr2 status, this has gone to the
favourite on all three occasions with all winners
finishing 1st/2nd on both of latest runs. BE BE KING is currently
trading as 2/1 fav (Betfair 3.15) and has the
right form figures to qualify as the selection.

At 2.30 the race over the extended trip of 3m1f has been run for
only 4 years. All past winners were 6th or better LTO
and had won in at least one of last 4 outings. All aged between
5&8yo with last run no more
than 35days earlier. No favourite has won. This leaves VALLEY RIDE
(currently 9/2 2nd fav, Betfair 6.4) as my
selection.

At 3.00 the feature chase has a poor favourites record as well as
favouring horses carrying less than 11st hence
the Morning Line pundits concern about Joaaci's short price. In
addition all but one finished
4th or better on last compleetd run. Of the contenders I have gone
with ARCTIC JACK (currently 9/1 although 3.7 for a
place on Betfair)
who just failed to get up last time on desparate ground at Haydock.

In the 3.30 race the trip changed to 3m only 2 years ago and on both
occasions the favourite
was beaten by a horse that won its last completed race. REBEL RHYTHM
(currently 11/4, 3.9 Betfair) is over 20lbs
below form of Iris's Gift on hurdles form but the Gold Cup contender
has not seemed a natural
over the larger obstacles and even fell when being schooled at
Haydock recently. Even before
this morning CH4 pundits had suggested it was worth taking on the
jolly that was my intention!

At Carlisle they stage the Lanzarote meeting moved from Kempton thus
these trends are based on
Kempton results whilst todays fields have much more of a northern
look about them!

In the Lanzarote at 2.45 most winners were 1st/2nd LTO with usually
2/3 races in current season.
Locally trained TORKINKING (curently around 13-2 and 8.2 on Betfair)
has improved remarkably over last 12m and this might
just be his big pay day having good form on soft ground.

In the finale at 3.45 race trends suggest 9yo's should fare best. No
recent winners have carried
11st 7lbs or more and whilst LORD MAIZEY (currently 13/2 although
3.35 place on Betfair) seems to fit the bill it is worth noting
that most winners of this event had been rested at least 23 days.

Wetherby's meeting has only two years trends to assess.

In the 1.35 race Gospel Song has won this on heavy ground for last
two years and whilst now 14yrs
old it does seem to be the race he is aimed at each year. Odds of
13/2 currently available with
3.3 a palce on Betfair.

Finally on the sand at Lingfield.

In the main handicap race at 2.55 I note 6yo have a good record.
HOWLE HILL is only contender
in that age group and is back from the jumps so should be fit.
Currently has odds of 5-1
which looks a bit skinny!However as only 6.2 on Betfair clearly this
is being supported.

SATURDAY NAPS SELECTIONS

CAROL EVANS - ROUND THE HORN 400 WARK (TOTE ODDS)
PHIL EVANS - BE BE KING 200 WARK (sp)

Phil Evans

http://www.evans996.freeserve.co.uk/SaturdayNapChallenge.htm