Saturday Selections 7th Jan.

As a follower of racing trends today does not inspire with few of
the jumps races having long
enough records to make any meaningful assessment.

At Sandown in the opener at 1.00 Ive gone for OSTROGOTH which was
shown on the RP betting forcast
at 9/2 and was trading on Betfair last night at 5.4 although it
seems this has been well supported
this morning with Totesport's latest price being 11/4 2nd Fav. The
trends on this race suggest that
all winners won or were at least placed on last two runs but
importantly in the last 10 races no winner
had raced more than two times under NH rules - indeed it was 1985
when last winner had run more
than twice before winning this event. I shall also be making this my
Saturday Naps Competition selection
today

In the 2.05 race at Sandown there have only been two prior runnings
but based on the weights, recent
runs and days since last run criteria LATIMERS PLACE would seem to
have a reasonable claim
albeit stable comments suggest may prefer it softer than todays
going forcast - currently trading at 14's
on Totesport so a place only price of 5.0 or better on Betfair would
represent a reasonable price
for the first three home.

At Haydock with ground verging on Heavy I would definitely be
looking for a horse that is proven
on such ground In the 12.45 race only Heltornic qualifies as does
Turthen in the 1.15 race. Most laster
races have several qualifiers.

At Lingfield an interesting trend in the 1.40 race is that all three
previous events were won by
jockey E Ahern - todays mount Sky High Guy is quoted at 14-1 in the
paper and whilst no real form
to go on thus if decent place odds on Betfair it may be worth a
small interest. In the final race on
this card at 3.50 again only three previous races although all
winners were drawn in stalls 1-4 -
Egyptian Lord makes a 400 mile plus return journey from the NW and
is from a yeard in decent form
over the Winter so even though latest price of 11/4 is tight enough
Id expect a bold show from this
one.


Phil Evans

http://www.evans996.freeserve.co.uk/SaturdayNapChallenge.htm