Saturday Jumps Selections – November 26th

Two great cards at Newbury & Newcastle today with a competitive card
at Towcester also.

My short priced selections today will include:

Rosetown 2.30 Tow – A race that favours 7yo statistically (55%
strike rate) and favourites have a reasonable strike rate at 44%.
Good trainer although don't know a lot about the claimer on board
today which is my only real concern here as rest of field doesn't
look too hot.

Wild Cane Ridge 1.20 Newc – Race has great favourites record at 77%
and trainer Len Lungo loves farming this sort of race in the North.

Arcalis 3.30 Newc - I shall be making this my NAP selection in
today's Saturday Naps Challenge competition. I was privileged to see
this horse win impressively at Cheltenham in March and unlike some
festival winners has been well rested sine. Last 5 winners of the
Fighting Fifth also won LTO although Admiral had a hard race 7 days
ago and I think this will come too soon – juveniles have not won
this event in the past either. Favourites fare well here with a 77%
strike rate and at present Intersky Falcon heads the market –
possibly because of the `Shearer factor locally?). However this
finished only 4th in the event last year and was behind Royal
Shakespeare thus no obvious reason to expect a win this time around.
With `Tommo' tipping Arcalis for the Champion Hurdle in 2006 it will
be no surprise to see this go off as favourite later today.

My value e/way bets today will include:

Almaydan 1.35 Newb – In this race 7yo fare particularly well.
Dempsey looks a strong danger also although I'm just swayed by the
couple of good runs that Almaydan has had this season.

Red Devil Robert 2.40 Newb – Trends show that a 1st/2nd place LTO is
essential form to win this event with only 1 winner aged 9 or older
in last 10 years. Well backed horses ten to fare well although only
35% of favourites actually win this event. Highest weight carried by
winners last 10 yrs is 11st 8lbs. Using this criteria the short list
will also include Iris Bleu (main danger as beat selection LTO), St
Matthew (in great form but this race probably too soon), and All In
The Stars (inexperienced jockey).

Supreme Prince 3.15 Newb – Again age group is my reason for picking
selection with 8yo faring best in this heat with 50% strike rate.
This also brings Bold Bishop and Jakari into contention but with
favourites record poor at 10% I've swerved the McCoy mount and sided
with last years winner Supreme Prince although a 9lbs rise on last
years weight does look a stiff penalty to overcome so the horse will
need to be on top form to prevail again this year.

Posh Stick 2.25 Newc – 8yo age group is again the key trend in this
race in the past with 50% strike rate. Of the others in the same age
group Oso Magic appears the main threat but as favourites have
modest 30% strike rate here the selection's better odds and
consistent form sway the day.

Lets hope for a great days racing and that they all come home safely!

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