YORK EBOR MEETING - 10 YEAR TRENDS

The following notes may help readers to draw up short lists for the
races in this year's major Northern flat meeting. The race order is
as
run in 2003 and after each race name/detail a figure in brackets
represents the favourites win percentage record in the race.

TUESDAY

1M 4F H/CAP (10%): A very trappy start to the meeting with last three
winners having SP's of 16/1, 33-1 & 50-1 respectively! There are
very few trends in this race although a low-middle draw seems an
advantage as does a run within the last 11-38 days. All had been
placed
1st/2nd/3rd on at least one of last three runs.

2 MILE LONSDALE STKS (45%): Several key trainers in this event with M
Johnston (3 wins) and J Dunlop/D Elsworth (2 wins). Six of
the last 10 winners also last ran in the Goodwood Cup 19 days
earlier. Only one winner had finished worse than 6th in last race.

1M 2F JUDDAMONTE INTERNATIONAL STKS (55%): The Suroor and Stoute
yards are the ones to watch with 3 wins/2 wins
respectiveley. Older horses have the best record with only a single
3yo winner. The favourites record here is solid with all winners
having
SP's of 6/1 or shorter.

1M 4F GREAT VOLTIGEUR STKS (30%): Another race dominated by key
stables - M Stoute has 3 wins and the Suroor & O'Brien
yards 2 wins each. No winner finished worse than 4th LTO and all had
SP's of 6/1 or shorter.

7F ACOMB STKS (40%): Most winners had raced only once/twice and all
finished 3rd or better LTO in the last 11-39 days. The Stoute,
Johnston & O'Brien yards all have supplied 2 winners each.

6F NURSERY H/CAP (50%): Only run twice in prsent format.thus
insufficient data to determine any trends.

6F H/CAP (5%): As with the opener this handicap will be a very
difficult race to call with no less than seven winners having SP's of
14-1
plus. In most races a mid-high draw has been an advantage although
in last two years a low-mid draw has provided the winner. All
winners between 1994-98 were aged 5 or less whilst the last five
winners were all aged 6 or older. The last 8 winners all carried
between
8st 10lbs & 9st 4lbs.

WEDNESDAY

1M 2F H/CAP (5O%): A low-middle draw seems an advantage although
those drawn very wide can win with a late run down the outside
provided they dont get boxed in. Younger horses (3&4yo) have the
best record with 8/10 wins. M Stoute is the leading trainer having
won this event for the last 2 seasons. 8/10 winners carried between
8st 11lbs & 9st 5lbs.

1M 4F YORKSHIRE OAKS (50%): M Stoute is again the leading trainer
with 4 wins followed by H Cecil (2 wins). The younger fillies
(3yo) have the best record with 6 wins and all but one had won LTO
also. Apart from the shock Italian raider in 2001 aall winners had
SP's
of 15/2 or shorter.

1M 6F EBOR H/CAP (20%): There was a time when a low-middle draw was
deemed essential in this event although for the last 4 seasons
the winner has come from stall 16 or higher which usually means a run
from off the pace is required. Avoid runners who finished worse
than 6th LTO. No winner aged older than 5yo with 3yo having best
record. Nine winners carried 8st 8lbs or less.

6F GIMCRACK STKS (30%): All winners had raced no more than three
times with a last run of 4th or better being essential. The Hills,
Loder & O'Brien yards are ones to watch having sent out 2 winners a
piece.

5F ROSES STKS (30%): A Northern trainer is unusually the top trainer
in this even - T Easterby having sent out two winners. All winners
had run at least twice with several having run 5+ times. A mid-high
draw may give a slight advantage.

6 FURL MAIDEN (10%): Six winners were unraced and three were unplaced
on on;y outing thus little to go on other than the betting
market where odds of 5/1 or shorter were seen about all but one
winner (Glaramara springing a 33-1 surprise last season). P Cole is
leading trainner with 2 wins.

5F FALMOUTH H/CAP (20%): Another trappy handicap to close the second
day. Alast run of 6th or better is a common trend in 9/10
past winners as is a last outing within 9-25 days. A lower weigh
(9st or less) also seems preferred. 2003 again saw a surpise 33-1
outsider
although apart from that the remainder were well backed at 12-1 or
shorter.

THURSDAY


1M 4F GALTRES STKS (35%): between 1990 & 1999 this race went to the L
Cumani yard no less than 8 times although this trend now
seems to have been arrested. 3yo have an excellent record with 8/10
wins. A run of 5th or better LTO is also an essential form guide.
Apart from a shock winner in 2001 all others had SP's of 7/1 or
shorter.

6F LOWTHER STAKES (45%): Yet again M Stoute is the leading yard with
3 wins. A 1st/2nd place LTO is an essential form figure. -
indeed all winners were 1st/2nd in each of last three races (some had
raced less than three times).

5F NUNTHORPE STAKES(50%): Last 5 favourites have obliged in this
Grp 1 event. A O'Brien is the trainer to 'note' having won with
Stravinsky & Mozart.......... Younger horses (3yo) have best record
with 5/10 wins although it is 1991 since they won in back to back
years thus this implies 2004 should go to an older horse again.

1M H/CAP (30%): A low draw looks a positive advantage in this event
although a few middle drawn horses have also won but a high draw
seems a big disadvantage. S Williams & N Tinkler have both provided
dual winners of the race apart from which that man again, M Stote,
is the trainer to note with 2 winners as well. Lower weighted horses
carrying 9st or less have won 8/10 races.

1M 6F H/CAP (0%): The race is restricted to 3yo and many will be
trying the trip for the first time which no doubt adds to the poor
fate of
the favourites - last winner in 1992. M Stute with 2 wins is again
the leading trainer. A st/2nd place in last three outings is an
essential
form guide.

7F CITY OF YORK STKS (20%): 3yo have best record with 6/10 wins but
in recent years the older horses have fared the better. 2003
provided another shock winner although that aside the majority had
all won on one of last three outings .

7F NURSERY H/CAP (0%): Only run three times in current format. All
three winners carried between 9st 2lbs & 9st 4lbs and had a
1st/2nd place on either of last two outings. A low-middle draw was
also a common trend. as was an SP of 7-1 or shorter.