10 YEAR TRENDS - AUGUST

This months meetings covered are Chester - Aug 1st, Haydock Aug 7th
and Ripon Aug 14th . This information is not
designed as a tipping service but by reviewing past results of races
it can throw up a variety of trends to help punters
draw up their short lists - then your own skill and form judgement is
still required! After each race specification the
figure in brackets is the favourites win rate. Details are taken as
at the respective 2003 meetings.

CHESTER - SUNDAY 1ST AUGUST

6 Furlong Nursery H/cap (50%) - 98 & 99 details have been omitted as
run over 5 furlongs these years. Leading trainers
are A Berry with 3 wins and PD Evans with 2 wins. Winners seem to
come from top or bottom of the handicap rather
than the middle. Stall 1 has provided 2 winners in 8 years but
winners have come from as high as stall 9 so don't be put
off by a higher draw in this event. Most winners last raced 5-19 days
earlier with three of last 4 winning last time out
(LTO) also. Only two winners had odds greater than 5/1.

7 Furlong Maiden for 2 year olds (85%) - Favourites record is
excellent here and all but one winner finished either
2nd/3rd LTO. All winners came from leading Southern stables with B
Hills leading trainer with 3 wins then P Cole and J
Dunlop with 2 wins each. A lower draw may help but its not essential
in this race if the horse has the best form!. All
winners last raced within 45 days.

7.5 Furlong H/cap (33%) - Whilst a very similar distance to last
event the draw here is quite critical - reason being that
its a handicap thus the draw has a much greater impact. In 7 of the 9
equivalent races the winner has come from either
stall 1 or 2 with the other two winners having middle draws. PD Evans
is leading trainer on 3 wins with A Bailey on 2
wins. A last run within 4-34 days is also a common factor.

2M 2F H/cap (50%) - J Dunlop has an excellent record in this race
with 3 wins followed by P Cole on 2 wins. Over 2
circuits of the track in generally smaller fields the draw is of no
real advantage. For long distance horses a very recent
race may be a disadvantage with most past winners having last raced
15-46 days earlier. All but one winner was aged 4
or 5 years old.

Queensferry Stks over 6 Furlongs (0%) - Only run over this trip since
1998. Seems to attract many horses year after year
with Vita Spericolata finishing 1st/2nd in each of the last three
years. Winners are not necessarily on top form in recent
races and several have come from a high draw. Oldest winner to date
was a 7yo and all having last raced within 9-36
days. Given poor favourites record best to seek out some e/way value
even if only 8 or 9 runners.

1M 4F H/cap (44%) - Notwithstanding the longer trip here the draw for
this handicap once again seems a critical factor.
Stalls 1&2 have again provided the winner in 7 of the last 9 runnings
of this event although this may not be as
convincing as it appears as unlike the 7.5Furlong race the fields
here tend to be smaller. B Hills is leading trainer on 2
wins. Longest odds of past winners has been 8/1 so best to
concentrate on the fancied horses with 3&4 YO. age group
having best record.

HAYDOCK - SATURDAY 7TH AUGUST

Coral Sprint H/cap (15%) - The draw can have an impact in the race
so check position of stalls on the day - far side
gives low numbers the edge and stand side helps higher numbers. If in
centre will depend if they stay there or move over
to one side of the track or indeed split into two groups - in summary
all very confusing and as no earlier races on day
check out results of other sprints on the Thursday/Friday fixtures.
On fast ground on last two runnings high numbers
seemed to have the edge. All past winners raced between 6-43 days
earlier with 5& 6yo being the best age group.

Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (50%) - A group 3 race but often attracts
only modest field albeit inevitably won by a top
Southern stable with M Tregonning having best record with 2 wins. It
is an all aged race and 3yo's have a 60% win
record in recent years. 70% of winners finished either 1st/3rd LTO.

1M 2F H/cap (N/A) - New race commenced 2003 thus insufficient data
available.

6 Furlong Novice Stakes (80%) - Only run 5 times but all winners were
1st/2nd LTO and had SP's of 9/4 or shorter. All
also last ran 11-36 days earlier.

1Mile H/cap (20%) - 3&4yo have won 80% of the races between them with
most also finishing 6th or better on last
outing. Although favourites record is weak all winners were priced
12/1 or shorter thus outsiders have modest record
also. Stalls 1&2 have supplied 4 of the last 10 winners but horses
drawn wide can and do win, particularly if they like to
be held up in their races.

1M 4F Maiden for 3yo (50%) - Only run four times with Newmarket yards
supplying all but one winner, having finished
4th or better LTO. The one exception provided a shock winner in the
unraced Scheming trained by Mark Brisbourne
whose horses have a great level stake profit at Haydock.

RIPON - SATURDAY 14TH AUGUST

6F Hornblower Stakes for 2yo (15%) - T Easterby is leading trainer in
this event with 3 wins. Although small fields
often seen in this race the two highest drawn hoses appear to have a
slight advantage.

5 Furlong Maiden (35%) - A finishing position of 5th or better LTO is
a common feature of winners of this race with
only one unraced winner seen in last 10 years. A higher draw seems an
advantage with only winners from a low draw
being the form pick of the race.

6F Great St Wilfred Handicap (10%) - A difficult race for favourites
with most winners having either a very high or very
low draw. Stalls 2-4 have provided 3 winners and the highest 6 stalls
have provided 6 winners thus a high draw appears
to be preferred and middle draws seeming the worst position. Only
Mark Johnston has won more than once (2 wins).
Most winners in good form having finished 4th or better LTO. 4yo 's
are preferred age group with 5 wins in 10 years.

1M 2F H/cap (37%) - 3yo are best age group with 6 wins in last 8
years. Horses in top half of handicap (9st+) have an
excellent record. All past winners also seemed to be in decent form
having finished 6th or better LTO.

6 Furlong Mdn Auction for 2yo (50%) - As with the big handicap race
similar draw trends are seen with the lowest 5
stalls and highest 5 stalls seeming favoured. Apart from a sole
unraced winner the remainder had shown some form (6th
or better) on either of last two outings. John Dunlop is the only
trainer with more than one win in the race (2 wins) but
its 1995 since the last one. A last run within 10-21 days is also a
common feature.

1M 4F H/cap for 3yo's (16%) - Only 6 runnings of this event and even
with smallish fields favourites have a poor
record. Southern stables have provided all six winners to date and
all were in reasonable form finishing 6th or better
LTO.