CHESTER MEETING - JULY 9TH - 10 YEAR TRENDS

After each race the figure in brackets represents the favourites
winning strike rate in the
same race over the last 10 years.

6.50 Claims UK 7.5F Maiden Stk (66%): Stall 2 and the highest draw
(dependant on field
size) have the best record in this race. All previous winners last
raced after a break of at
least 12 days. Importantly 3yo have a 100% strike rate. There were no
unraced winners
and no winner had raced more than 4 times in current season. Whilst
Red Top meets
many of these criteria HEARTS DESIRE may offer better value on the
night for what
looks like a two horse race.

7.20 K Corbett 5f H/cap (40%): Horses drawn 1-4 have won every
running of this race in
the last 10 years. All also raced 3-28 days earlier with 9/10
carrying 8st 11lbs or less. This
appears to narrow the possible winner down to the two M Polglase
runners and with R
Ffrench having a good season in the NW this year I'll side with stall
1 runner SIR
ERNEST who may even go off at e/w odds!

7.50 Nexus Stks over 5f for 2yo (90%): Favourites have a superb
record in this race
although the race is more competitive this year with a larger than
usual field. All winners
were 1st/2nd LTO and had raced within last 9-27 days. They had all
also had min of 2
races in career. The front two in the betting appear to have the race
at their mercy with
AMAZIN just preferred to Beckermet (who won over C&D last time).

8.20 New Vauxhall Nursery over 5f (60&): All past winners carried 8st
11lbs or more
and were drawn in stalls 1-6. A last run 14-27 days earlier is
preferred and all had raced at
least 3 times finishing either 1st/2nd on last two outings. An SP of
9/2 or shorter
generally seen. Could be one of the trappier races of the night where
Im hoping PIPER
LILY can see off Katie Boo at decent e/w odds.

8.50 - No selections as race distance changed 2003 hence no trends
available.

9.20 Aspects Beauty H/cap over 1m 2f for 3yo (0%): All past winners
had also won in
last 4 outings and carried at least 8st 5lbs. Best finishing position
LTO of past winners
was 3rd. Odds generally 5/1+ although smaller field this year so last
category less
significant. Certainly looking to avoid the favourite in this one
thus KINGS EMPIRE may
prove the best value of the three contenders fitting the above
criteria.

http://www.evans996.freeserve.co.uk/ChesterTrendsTips.htm

http://www.chester-races.co.uk/