HAYDOCK TRENDS - JULY 3RD MEETING

These comments are based upon last 10 years results at the same
meeting - figure in
brackets is the favourites winning percentage.

1.50 Lancashire Oaks (40%): In the past a race farmed by Henry Cecil
- a sign of the
times that he doesn't have a runner this year. No winner has raced
more than twice in
current season and in races of 8 declared runners stalls 6,7 & 8 have
provided the past
winners. PONGEE is the selection having already beaten Chantress by
4l over C&D
earlier this year with Summitville my main danger.

2.25 1M Handicap (30%): The draw will have a big effect here with low
numbers suiting
front runners whilst a high draw suits hold up horses. 5yo have
decent record in the race
with those weighted between 9st 4lbs and 9st 9lbs having an
impressive record. All
winners last raced 7-33 days earlier. Whilst DIDNT TELL MY WIFE'S
form this tear has
been mixed it was fancied last time when beaten and is a hold up
horse on a high draw
thus just gets the vote as an e/w selection.

2.55 Old Newton Cup (0%): A race that often falls to an improving
sort lower in the
weights and with a win in last two outings. Whist bookies Corals
fancy a low draw the
past stats show a high draw can be equally effective. As in the last
race a higher draw will
suit the hold up horses better. 4yo have best record with 5/10 wins.
A very competitive
renewal but with TRANCE in such good form it should prove good e/w
value at 10-1+

3.35 6F Conditions Race (50%): Horses with SP's of 7-1 or less tend
to win this race. A
last race between 9-48 days is also a good guide and this rules out 5
of the 9 contenders.
Apart from stall 1 the winners have tended to come from a higher
draw. No outstanding
contender but DAZZLING BAY trained by last years successful trainer,
just gets the vote.

4.05 6F handicap (35%): No winners have carried less than 8st so Id
rule out the bottom
weights. Apart from that the main clues seem to be odds of 12-1 or
less and a higher
draw, albeit this year's race has nearly double the size of field
seen of late. CELTIC
THUNDER at 7-1 is probably good e/w value and will be disappointing
if out of the
frame - although with 16 declared will be only a matter of time
before a withdrawal is
announced!

4.40 5F Handicap (26%): Another tricky handicap to finish the card.
All recent winners
were 10-1 or shorter and last raced within 5-14 days. Horses carrying
9st 1lb have the best
record. Its a grey day in Lancashire and Im hoping that LAUREL DAWN
can may it a
grey day on the track after coming back to form in recent races.
Should be e/w value at
10-1 or there abouts.

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