May 25th Meeting 10 Year Trends (1999-2008)

Previous race trends can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races - hopefully these brief pointers
will assist racegoers at Carlisle today. The figure in brackets after the race
details shows the favourite's record in the race since 1999. Only four races
today have been run in their current format for a minimum of 3 years as follows:


(2.20) 5 Furl Maiden for 2yo (50%): It generally pays to follow the market
leaders in the betting in this event with all winners having odds of 4/1 or
shorter. A 5th or better place on last run (or an unraced horse) is preferred.
Leading trainer in the race is Mark Johnston with 3 wins since 2005. A
middle-high draw is generally favoured in this race.


(2.50) 6 Furlong Handicap (0%): Unlike the last race the favourites record in
this race is very poor. All winners since 1999 were aged 4-6 years old. Most
finished no better than 6th on last outing with only one winner being off the
track for more than 19 days. Yorkshire based trainers have an excellent record
in the race with Dandy Nicholls training 2 winners since 2000. The draw
advantage is mixed in this heat although a stall in either of the highest or
lowest 4 numbers would appear best - allowing the horse to get the advantage of
the running rail on either side of the track.


(4.05) 1Mile 2Furlong Handicap (33%): The distance of this race was changed
slightly in 2008 (extra furlong added). A very interesting trend in the race is
that five of the six winners since 1999 were drawn in the highest three stalls
with the highest stall winning the last three races. All winners had good recent
form with none finishing worse than 6th in their last race.

(5.10) 5 Furlong Handicap (0%): Another poor race for favourite backers. Indeed
five of the seven winners had odds of between 10-1 and 25-1. Higher weighted
horses do tend to fare best with horses carrying 9st 1lbs + winning six of the
seven races. The draw comments in this event are similar to the 6 Furlong
Handicap in that horses drawn in the middle third of the track did not produce a
single winner either.


Information supplied by www.northernracingclub.com