November 29th Meeting - Trendsetters Guide (1997-2006)


Previous race trends can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races - except for the opening race
where the race conditions are different this year. Hopefully these
brief pointers
will assist racegoers at Carlisle today - the figure in brackets
after
the race details shows the favourite's strike rate for the race:

(1.20) 2M 4F Novice Chase (50%): Tony Dobbin has ridden 5/6 recent
winners of this race whilst L Lungo has trained four of these with N
Richards' training the other of Tony's winners. With Len Lungo not
having a runner this year the likely mount for Tony this year appears
to be Bedlam Boy (trained by Nicky Richards). All six of the latest
winners also won their last race. In terms of age groups to follow
6/9 races were won by 6yo with the other 3/9 won by 7yo horses.

(1.55) 2M 4F Novice Hurdle (12%) : It is unusual for favourites to
fare so poorly in a novice hurdle with 6/8 winners odds being 12/1 or
longer and three of the last four winners having odds of 20/1 or
longer. A possible reason for this is that the ground at this meeting
tends to be either soft or heavy and many of the runners will have
had few races (if any) on such ground previously. Apart from last
year's winner (making debut over NH rules) all other winners since
1997 had last raced between 11-26 days before. 5yo is the preferred
age group providing 5/8 winners.

(2.25) 3M Handicap Chase (44%): A slightly longer trip seen in 1998-
2002 albeit all included in these statistics. All but one of the last
nine winners finished 4th or better on last completed race with the
other finishing 6th LTO. Last year's winner had two runs in current
season before winning this race with all others either making their
seasonal bow or having just one previous race in the current season.
All past winners had been rested at least 12 days since their last
run and all but one were well backed at odds of 11/2 or shorter. 7yo
is the preferred age group with 5/9 winners. L Lungo is the leading
trainer in this race (as well as at the meeting) and interestingly
may have a runner (Brooklyn Breeze) who is also owned by the race
sponsors.

(3.00) 2M 1F Handicap Hurdle (37%): Whilst we saw a 20/1 surprise
winner in 2003 (Uptown Lad) all other winners were well supported at
odds of 5/1 or lower. All but one finished 3rd or better on the last
completed race with the other finishing 6th LTO. All winners aged
between 4-7yrs with 5yo faring best with 4/8 wins. L Lungo is again
the leading trainer in the race with 2 winners since 1997.

(3.30) 2m 4F H'cap Hurdle for Amateur Riders (25%); Only 2 winning
favourite's since 1997 and both of these had won their last race
also. All other winners had finished 5th or better on their last
race. Longest SP's seen were 10/1. Highest allotted weight carried in
past was 11st 10lbs with all but one jockey claiming a riding
allowance. In terms of the leading amateur jockey's with intended
rides today T Greenall has the best form this season (GB races only)
with 8/89 wins/rides although none yet for trainer I McMath. JA Kidd
has the next best record with 7/29 (including a win on only other
ride for trainer S Gollings). SF Magee has ridden 2/32 winners (both
for trainer JK Magee on Saddlers Cove) and O Williams 1/27 wins
(winner for trainer JM Jefferson).


The leading jockeys/trainers at this meeting for the last ten years
are as follows:

Trainers: Len Lungo 11 wins, Howard Johnson 5 wins.
Jockeys: Tony Dobbin 10 wins, Graham Lee 5 wins.

Information supplied by www.northernracingclub.com