November 12th Meeting - Trendsetters Guide (1997-2006)


Previous race trends can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races - hopefully these brief pointers
will assist Racegoers at Carlisle today. The figure in brackets after
the race details is the favourite's strike rate for the race:

(12.50) 2 Mile Beginners Chase (40%): Only run over current distance
since 2001. 6yo have best record with 3/5 wins with all winners aged
between 4-7yrs.
(1.20) 3M 1F Novice Hurdle (55%) : All but one winner since1997
finished 3rd or better in last race with 5/9 winning their last race.
As form horses generally run well in this event it is not surprising
that all but one winner had odds of 3/1 or shorter.5yo is the
preferred age group with 5/9 wins in this event.
(1.55) 2M 4F Graduation Chase (n/a): New race in 2006. Worth
mentioning that even though Exotic Dancer was a well beaten 2nd in
the race last year it went on to be one of the most consistent
chasers last season thus this event could again throw up something
for `Ten To Follow' fans.
(2.25) 2M 4F Nov H'cap Hurdle (22%): Past winners were generally
well supported with only one winner's odds greater than 9/1. All
winners aged between 5-8yrs. Conditional jockeys with either a 5lb or
7lb weight allowance have a reasonable record with 4/9 wins since
1997.
(3.00) 3M 2F H'cap Chase (40%): Last three winners were all 3rd on
last outing whilst all winners since 1997 finished 5th or better on
their last completed race. Whilst older horses (up to 12yrs) have won
this event the recent trends lean towards younger horses with last 6
winners aged between 5-8yrs. Longest odds of winner 6/1.
(3.30) 2M 4F H'cap Chase (11%): A poor race for favourites although
apart from one 25/1 winner rest were well backed at odds of 5/1 or
shorter. A 6th place or better was seen in all but one past winner in
their last completed race. All winners aged between 6-10 years old.
(4.00) 2M 1F H'cap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys (10%): Run in
current format since 2001. Older horses fare well in this event with
last three aged between 11-12yrs. Also look for a 6th place or better
on last completed race. Apart from one 20/1 winner rest were well
backed at 6/1 or shorter. Look for more experienced jockeys with max
weight allowance of 5lbs.

The leading jockeys/trainers at this meeting for the last ten years
are as follows:

Trainers: L Lungo 6 wins, A Parker 4 wins..
Jockeys: A Dobbin 7 wins, G Lee 4 wins..

Information supplied by www.northernracingclub.com