October 12th Meeting - Trendsetters Guide (1997-2006)


Previous race trends can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races - hopefully these brief pointers
will assist Racegoers at Carlisle today. The figure in brackets after
the race details is the favourite's strike rate for the race:

(2.00) 2M 1F Novice Hurdle (56%): An excellent race for well backed
horses
With all seven past winners starting at odds of 7/2 or shorter. JJ
O'Neill is the trainer to follow with 3 wins in the race since 2000 -
all were also ridden by AP McCoy. One past winner was making its NH
debut whilst all others had finished 3rd or better on one of last two
starts.

(2.30) 2M 4F Beginners Chase (33%) : Only run in current format since
2004 thus very limited trends to date. All winners were aged 5/6yrs
and longest SP seen was 7/1,

(3.00) 2M 4F Novice Handicap Hurdle (45%): 5yo horses have a good
record in the race having won 5 of last 10 renewals. Horses carrying
11st+ seem favoured also with 7/10 wins. In terms of recent form a
6th place or better on last two runs was seen in all winners. The
last two winners had odds of 12/1 although all other winners SP's
were 8/1 or shorter.

(3.35) 2M Handicap Chase (33%): All winners aged between 6-10yrs. A
4th place or better on last two outings was seen in all past winners.
Longest SP seen since 1997 was 8/1.

(4.10) 2M 1F Handicap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys (15%): All
winners aged between 4-7yrs. A 5th place or better on either of last
two outings was seen in all past winners. Whilst favourite's record
is weak in this heat the winners do tend to be reasonably well backed
at odds of 12/1 or shorter. Trainer P Monteith has trained three
winners of the race since 1998 and all were well supported at odds of
9/2 or shorter.

(4.45) 3M Handicap Chase (66%): Race only run over this trip since
2004 thus again limited trends seen. All three winners finished 6th
or better on last run and were well backed at odds of 11/4 or shorter.

(5.15) 2M 1F NH Flat Race (20%): Only one 6yo winner seen in 2001
thus generally best to look at 4/5yo horses. The race has been won by
8 horses that were making their debuts with the other two having won
their first race under NH rules. Larger NH stables not surprisingly
have the best record in this event.

The leading jockeys/trainers at this meeting for the last ten years
are as follows:

Trainers: JJ O'Neill 7 wins, N Richards & R Guest 5 wins.
Jockeys: A Dobbin 8 wins, AP McCoy 5 wins.

* Whilst not yet on the leader-board look out for trainer David
Pipe's runners as he had a treble on last year's card!

Information supplied by www.northernracingclub.com