YORK EBOR MEETING - 10 YEAR TRENDS 1997-2006

The following notes may help readers to draw up short lists for the
races in this year's major Northern flat meeting. The race order is
as scheduled for 2007 and after each race name/detail a figure in
brackets represents the favourites win percentage record in the race.
References to draw assumes Low/Middle/High (L;M;H) split into three
equal parts based on size of field with bias rating shown as a
percentage. The final draw statistic is the `lucky stall` which is
the stall(s) providing the most winners in the last ten years.

TUESDAY

1M 4F H/CAP (20%): A very trappy start to the meeting with last 5/6
latest winners having SP's of 16-1, 33-1, 50-1 33-1 & 12-1
respectively! There are very few trends in this race although a run
within the last 10-38 days was seen with most winners. Most had been
placed 4th or better on at least one of last two outings - indeed
last three winners were 4th LTO. Draw L20%;M50%;H30%. Lucky stalls
#11 (three wins) #6 and 10 (two wins).

2 MILE LONSDALE CUP (Group 2) (35%): Key trainers in this event are M
Johnston , J Dunlop and D Elsworth (2 wins). 6 of the last 10 winners
also last ran in the Goodwood Cup 19 days earlier. No winner had
finished worse than 6th in last race. Draw L40%;M40%;H20%. Lucky
stalls #2 (three wins) #3 and 7 (two wins).

1M 4F GREAT VOLTIGEUR STKS (Group 2) (30%): A race dominated by key
stables - S Bin Suroor has and M Stoute have 3 wins & AP O'Brien 2
wins. No winner finished worse than 4th LTO with 4 of last 5 winners
winning their last race. Draw L40%;M30%;H30%. Lucky stall #2and3
(three wins each) .

1M 2F JUDDAMONTE INTERNATIONAL STKS (Group 1) (35%): The Godolphin
(Suroor) and Stoute yards are the ones to watch with 2 wins each.
Older horses (aged 4/5yrs) have the best record with only a single
3yo winner. The favourites record here is solid with all winners
having SP's of 8/1 or shorter. Draw L10%;M60%;H30%. Lucky stall #5
(six wins) #2 and 9 (two wins).

7F ACOMB STKS (LISTED) for 2YO. (50%): Most winners had raced only
once/twice and all finished 3rd or better (seven actually won) LTO in
the last 11-39 days. M Johnston, M Stoute & A O'Brien yards have
supplied 2 winners each. Draw L20%;M50%;H30%. Lucky stalls #5 (three
wins) #6 (two wins).

6F NURSERY H/CAP (30%): Only run five times in present format. Common
trends to date are a last run 3-21 days earlier, and a 4th place or
better on at least one of last two runs. Draw L20%;M80%;H0%. Lucky
stall #6 (two wins).

5F H/CAP (n/a): New race in 2007.




WEDNESDAY

1M 2F H/CAP (30%): M Stoute is the leading trainer having won this
event twice. 8/10 winners carried 9st or less. Last nine winners all
had a 3rd place or better from either of last two outings with a last
run in last 12-61 days. Draw L40%;M20%;H40%. Lucky stall #1 (two
wins).

6F GIMCRACK STKS (Group 2) (20%): 9 of last 10 winners had raced no
more than three times with a last run of 5th or better being
essential. The A O'Brien yard has sent out 2 winners and is the top
stable since 1997 although no unraced runner has won the race in the
last 20 years. Draw L40%;M30%;H30%. Lucky stalls #2&9 (three wins) #7
(two wins).

1M 6F EBOR H/CAP (10%): L Cumani is leading trainer on 2 wins. It is
generally best to avoid runners who finished worse than 6th LTO
although last year`s 100/1 winner Mudawin was an exception to this
rule. No winner aged older than 6yo. Nine winners carried 8st 12lbs
or less. All last raced 11-39 days before. Draw L30%;M10%;H60%. Lucky
stall #20 (two wins).

1M 4F YORKSHIRE OAKS (Group 1) (50%): M Stoute is again the leading
trainer (4 wins) followed by H Cecil (2 wins). The younger fillies
(3yo) have the best record with 6 wins. All winners finished in first
three LTO racing in last 17-62 days. Apart from the shock Italian
raider in 2001 (Super Tansa) all winners had SP's of 7/1 or shorter.
Draw L20%;M30%;H50%. Lucky stall #7 (three wins) # 5&9 (two wins).

5F ROSES STKS for 2YO (Listed) (20%): T Easterby is leading trainer
in this event with 2 wins.. All winners had run at least twice with
several having run 5+ times. Apart from one 16-1 winner the remainder
were well backed at 7/1 or shorter. Draw L20%;M30%;H50%. Lucky stalls
#2,4,6 (two wins).

6 FURL MAIDEN (10%): Four winners were unraced and others ran only
once mostly finishing 6th or better. Little to go on other than the
betting market where odds of 9/1 or shorter were seen about all but
one winner (Glaramara springing a 33-1 surprise in 2003). Draw
L20%;M30%;H50%. Lucky stalls # 3, 4,&8 (two wins).

5F H/CAP (30%): Another fairly trappy handicap to close the second
day. A last run of 6th or better is a common trend in all winners A
lower weigh (9st or less) also seems preferred. 2003 again saw a
surprise 33-1 outsider although apart from that the remainder were
well backed at 14-1 or shorter. Draw L40%;M30%;H30%.Lucky stalls #
5&15 (two wins).

THURSDAY

6F ST LEGER YEARLING STKS FOR 2YO (30%); Run at York for the first
time in 2006 having previously been run at Doncaster. B Meehan is the
leading trainer with three of the last four winners to his name
although H Candy`s runners also merit respect with two winners. All
winners finished 5th or better LTO 9in last 12-44 days) and had
finished 1st/2nd in either of last two starts. Draw statistics
ignored for this race as they relate to Doncaster apart from 2006.



6F LOWTHER STAKES for 2YO (Group 2) (50%): M Channon is the leading
yard with 3 wins although M Stoute`s runners should also be respected
with two winners since 2000. A 1st/2nd place on either of last two
starts is an essential form figure. - 8 won LTO - indeed all winners
were 1st/2nd in at least two of last three races (some had raced less
than three times). Draw L20%;M30%;H50%. Lucky stall #4 (three wins)
#6 (two wins).

1M H/CAP (20%): N Tinkler and M Stoute have trained 2 winners each.
Lower weighted horses carrying 8st 12lbs or less have won 7/10 races.
Younger horses aged 3 or 4 yrs have best record with 7/10 wins with
oldest winner aged 6yrs. Draw L60%;M30%;H10%. Lucky stalls #1,4&11
(two wins).

5F NUNTHORPE STAKES (Group 1) (50%): A O'Brien & D Nicholls are
leading trainers with 2 wins each. Younger horses (aged 3or 4) have a
good record with 7/10 wins with oldest winner aged 9yrs. Draw
L70%;M10%;.H20%. Lucky stalls #2&4 (two wins).

7F CITY OF YORK STKS (Listed) (40%): 3&4yo have best record with 7/10
wins although we saw a 9yo winner last year. W Haggas is leading
trainer with two winners. Draw L30%;M50%;H20%. Lucky stalls #6 (three
wins) #4&7 (two wins).

1M 4F GALTRES STKS (Listed) (35%): between 1990 & 1999 this race went
to the L Cumani yard no less than 8 times although this trend now
seems to have been arrested. However he remains joint leading trainer
with J Oxx with 2 wins in last 10 years.3yo have an excellent record
with 8/10 wins with 4yo taking the other two races. A run of 6th or
better LTO is also an essential form guide. Apart from a shock
25/1winner in 2001 (Inchiri) all others had SP's of 7/1 or shorter.
Draw L50%;M50%;H0%. Lucky stalls # 1,2,4&6.

1M 6F H/CAP FOR 3YO (10%): Many horses will be trying the trip for
the first time which no doubt adds to the poor fate of the
favourites. J Dunlop is the leading trainer with 2 wins. A 1st/2nd
place in at least one of the last three outings is an essential form
guide. Draw L40%;M40%;H20%. Lucky stalls #1&5 (two wins).