November 6th Meeting Race Trends (1996-2005)

Previous race trends can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races - hopefully these brief pointers
will assist racegoers at Carlisle today. There are no past trends
for today's 1.45 race. The figure in brackets after the race details
is the favourite`s strike rate for the race:

12.40 2M Beginners Chase (30%): 6yo have an excellent record in this
event winning 6/10 races. Most were also well backed with longest SP
of winner being 5/1.

1.10 2M 1F Novice Hurdle (55%): L Lungo is the leading trainer for
this race with two past wins. All but one past winner finished 3rd
or better on last outing. 5yo is preferred age group with 5/10 wins.
Only one past winner had SP greater than 7/2.

2.20 2M 4F Nov H'cap Hurdle (30%): Horses with good recent form
again preferred with only one past winner finishing worse than 6th
on last outing. Whilst race usually a bit more open than earlier
races it has still only seen one winner with odds greater than 8/1.

2.55 3M 2F H'cap Chase (40%): A Parker is leading trainer on 2 wins
(both Hugo De Grez). Horses in good recent form again preferred with
a last completed run of 5th or better seen in all past winners.
Winners odds in past have all been 6/1 or shorter.

3.30 2M 4F H'cap Chase (20%): Whilst favourites fare poorly in this
event there has only been one winner with odds greater than 5/1. Few
other trends although those weighted below 11st do seem slightly
preferred.

4.05 2M 1F H'cap Hurdle for Conditional Jockeys (12%): Only run in
this format four times - older horses fare well with last three
winners aged 8,11 % 12 respectively. Apart from a 20-1 surprise in
2002 the other three winners (all 6th or better on last outing were
well supported at 7/2 or shorter. Horses carrying less than 11st
seem slightly preferred.



The leading jockeys/trainers at this meeting for the last 10 years
are as follows:

Jockeys Wins
G Lee 5
A Dobbin 5
A McCoy 3
P Carberry 3
D Elsworth 2
B Harding 2
P Ryan 2
J Supple 2
S Durak 2
D N Russell 2

Trainers Wins
L Lungo 6
S Smith 5
A Parker 5
F Murphy 4
J J O'Neill 4
J Jefferson 4
A Duffield 2
J Turner 2





Review of last meeting - Oct 29th

The leading jockey at the meeting was highlighted as Tony Dobbin and
he again did his supporters proud adding another three winners to
his tally. From the top five trainers list a further 4 winners were
identified. In terms of the individual race comments: Gunner Jack
trained by N Richards won at 7/4 (advised to follow top stable
runner with odds of < 11/2). Time Marches On trained by K Reveley
and carried 11st 11lbs won at 7/2 (advised to follow Reveley yard
runners, horses carrying above 11st and with SP of < 6/1 - met all
criteria). Twelve Paces trained by D Pipe won at 13/8 (advised to
follow winners of last race and those that ran within last 48 days -
met this criteria). Its Bertie trained by Sue Smith won at 8/1
(advised to follow 6yo runners with odds < 10/1 and a 6th place or
better on last completed run - met all criteria). Parkinson trained
by J J O'Neil won at 8/11(advised to follow horses carrying between
10st 6lbs and 10st 8lbs - no runners carried these weights with
winner carrying nearest weight at 10st 9lbs).

Information supplied by www.northernracingclub.com .