October 29th Meeting Race Trends (1996-2005)

Previous race trends can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races - hopefully these brief pointers
will assist racegoers at Carlisle today. The figure in brackets
after the race details is the favourite`s strike rate for the race:

2M 4F Novice Hurdle (37%) – Only run in this format last two seasons
although four races in total (two divisions each year). Only one of
four winners had run previously under NH rules with all coming from
top stables and being well supported at 11/2 or shorter.

3 Mile Novice Chase (50%) – Whilst distance changed in 2005 the past
trends in the equivalent novice chase show that favourite's fare
well in this event. A 1st/2nd place on either of last two outings
seen with last five winners.

2M 1F H'cap Hurdle (30%) – Historically the Mary Reveley yard has
fared well in this race (four wins between 1993-2003) so possibly
her son can continue this trend? Past winners generally well
supported with only one winner having SP greater than 6/1 and none
greater than 10/1. Those in top half of handicap (above 11st) have a
slightly better record.

3m 2F Cumberland Chase (40%) 6 past winners won LTO whilst all ten
winners were placed 3rd or better on at least one of last two runs.
Most winners had raced recently (within 48 days) whilst four winners
specifically raced 15 days earlier. 8&9 year olds are the favoured
age group of past winners. Again those in top half of handicap
(above 11st) have the best record with 8/10 winners from that group.

2 Mile Nov H'cap Chase – Only 6 past runnings of this race with 6yo
winning four times and 7yo the other two. Winners generally well
supported at 5/1 or shorter with no SP greater than 10/1 seen. All
past winners finished 6th or better on last completed race. Only one
winner carried less than 11st in the race.

3M 1F Nov H'cap Hurdle (Amateur Riders) (50%) - Race only run twice
previously so limited trends. Both winners carried between 10st 6lbs
and 10st 8lbs and finished either 3rd/4th on last completed outing.
Both aged between 10-12 years so older horses may be more suited to
the amateur jockeys?

Leading jockeys/trainers at this meeting for last 10 years are as
follows:

Jockeys Wins
A Dobbin 11
G Lee 4
A Dempsey 3
C Llewellyn 3
D Elsworth 3
A McCoy 2
C McCormack 2
R McGrath 2
P Carberry 2


Trainers Wins
J J O'Neill 9
L Lungo 5
J H Johnson 4
S Smith 4
N Richards 3
F Murphy 2
P Niven 2
N T Davies 2