Aug 7th Meeting Race Trends (1999-2005)

Previous race trends can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races - hopefully these brief pointers
will assist racegoers at Carlisle today. Due to the changes in the
race schedule in 2006 there are only past records for four races
today. The figure in brackets after the race details is the
favourite`s strike rate for the race and the `lucky draw` number is
the stall(s) providing the most winners for race in previous years,
where applicable:

6.10 - 1Mile H'cap for Lady Amateur Riders (8%): All four past
winners ran 5th or better on last outing and carried 11st or lower.
Only one winner had odds greater than 6/1.

7.10 - 5 Furl M'dn Auction for 2yo (33%): No previous winner had
finished better than 3rd on previous outings and none had raced more
than twice before. Longest SP seen was 10-1. Lucky draw #2.

7.40 - 1M 4F H'cap for 3yo (33%): All past winners last raced
between 8-29 days earlier and had good form (5th or better) on
either of last two starts. Most were well backed at odds of 9/2 or
shorter with longest SP seen at 10-1. M Johnston is leading trainer
with 2 wins. Lucky draw #1&3.

8.40 - 6 Furl H'cap for 3yo (16%): Historically an open race with
all past winners having some reasonable form (4th or better) in any
of last three races. Longest winning odds seen 12-1. Most winners
drawn in either the highest/lowest three stalls. Lucky draw #2.

The leading jockeys/trainers at this meeting for the last six years
are as follows:

Jockeys Wins Trainers Wins
R Winston 5 A Berry 2
F Norton 3 I Semple 2
D Allan 2 J Quinn 2
J Fanning 2 M Johnston 2
K Darley 2 R Fahey 2
P Hanagan 2 T Easterby 2







Last meeting review (Aug 3rd)

The lucky draws fared well with the five races highlighted providing
a 6/1 winner and two 2nd places at odds of 22/1 and 20/1
respectively.

Terry Molloy (6/1 winner in 1st race) met the criteria of avoiding
the favourite but looking for odds of 6/1 or shorter - as well as
having the lucky draw! In the 2nd race we didnt hit the target at
all! There were no trends available for the 3rd race. In the 4th
race a low draw (5 or lower) was recommended and with stall 1 a non-
runner this left four options and they obliged filling the first two
places at odds of 4/1(William John) and 22/1(Atwirl) respectively.
Celtic Spa (15/8 winner of 5th race) met criteria of good form on
last outing (1st LTO) and odds of 5/1 or shorter whilst Fortress
(4/1 winner of 6th race) also met the criteria of good form on last
outing (2nd LTO) and odds of 8/1 or shorter. In the 7th and final
race the trends suggested a 5yo with odds of 11/1 or shorter and
again Rare Coincidence met the criteria winning at odds of 10-1.





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