Not much wind in the holiday weekend forecast. Moisture is forecast to start
creeping back into the state today [Fri]. So, chance of rain will be increasing
up to 20% and above. This is one of those weekends when you don't go for the
wind, you just go to get wet, burn some beef, keep your hands cool, and just
maybe get on a plane if a t-storm get close enough. Besides, this weekend isn't
about you, it's about America - Happy Birthday!!

Go get wet,

-B

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Forecast Discussion below:

.DISCUSSION...AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. ACCORDINGLY...THE MOIST MONSOONAL PLUME CURRENTLY OVER
ARIZONA WILL THEN MOVE EAST AS WELL AND BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THIS EXPECTED TREND IS HANDLED WELL IN THE INHERITED FORECAST AND
MODEL OUTLOOKS. THUS...MY CHANGES PRIMARILY IMPACTED SHORT TERM
PRECIPITATION EXPECTATIONS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING ISSUES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS
TRYING TO DRY OUT THE STATE A BIT UNDER A ZONAL FLOW AND THE ECMWF
HOLDING ON TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...WILL TREND CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THOSE DAYS
IN THE FORECAST.