On 5/8/07, Randy <Randy@...> wrote:
> --- In milwaukeebrewersbaseball@yahoogroups.com, crichar3
> <crichar3@...> wrote:
>
>
> >
> > I think it is possible if they win the Central. I still don't see
> > them winning much more than 85 games (and that could be enough to take
> > the division). I wouldn't say they are a strong candidate for the
> > playoff if they can't win the Central.
> >
>
>
> Chris,
>
> I have to disagree with you on your prediction. Afterall, thre are
> 130 games left in the regular season, your prediction of 85 and 77
> just doesn't make sense with what they have already accomplished. The
> club would actually have to have loosing record (.484 to be exact) for
> the remainder of the season. I don't think that this team will do
> that. Sure they are really hot at the moment and I honestly do think
> they will cool off a bit, but I think they will continue to play good
> ball and be at or within a game or two of playing .500 for the rest of
> the year and still finishing with 90 or more wins and easily walking
> away with the central title.


Of course, I hope you are right. But I will note that we are talking
about a five game differential here--my feeling about 85 wins v. your
feeling of 90, so it is not like we disagree all that much.

I skew lower because I do not believe they will be healthy all season;
because I would be surprised if things continue to break in their
favor going forward the way they have to this point; and because, in
the ebb and flow of a season players are certain to slump and be
ineffective. Few position players have slumped badly (Hall at times,
Rickie a bit and Counsel), but by and large everyone has been
available and performing at or near expectations.





The key is all in the starting
> rotation. As long as those pitchers stay healthy I think we will have
> a genuine shot at seeing some post season games being played at the
> Keg this year.



I sincerely doubt they all will stay healthy, and that is going to
sting when it happens. Moreover, no one on the staff--save for Dave
Bush--has struggled much if at all. I also expect simple
ineffectiveness will be a factor down the line, significantly enough
that they might only manage .500 from here on out (which would give
them 87 wins for the year, which might be good enough to win the
division).

Sure, they look good now. But injury and reversion to the mean are
factors that have yet to come into play. The schedule is also going
to get more challenging soon.

Chris


http://crichar3.blogspot.com/