OAKLAND, Calif. - If the American League East could be decided like
the Iowa caucus instead of on the field, there is little doubt who
would win.

The chattering class has been heard from, and far and wide, on
newsprint and in cyberspace, on TV and inside magazines, from veteran
hacks and new-age number-crunchers, cheerleading homers and jaded New
Yorkers, the Red Sox are huge favorites to repeat as division champions.

On ESPN.com, for example, 14 of 18 "experts" pick the Sox to win the
division, Peter Gammons predicts Manny Ramírez will win the MVP, and
Steve Phillips, the former Mets general manager, selected David Ortiz
as his MVP. "Baseball Tonight" regular Tim Kurkjian has the Sox
beating the Mets in the World Series, while Sean McAdam, who writes
for the website in addition to his duties covering the team for the
Providence Journal, likes the Sox over the Diamondbacks in October.

"Life has been awfully good for Boston fans," proclaims Foxsports.com,
"and it doesn't figure to change much in 2008 . . . For a baseball-mad
city, life doesn't get much better than this."

The three baseball columnists at YahooSports are unanimous in choosing
the Sox to win the division.

The Sox, who split two games with the Athletics in Tokyo last week,
resume regular-season play tonight in Oakland, after a three-game
exhibition set against the Dodgers over the weekend in Los Angeles.

But they are clearly the flavor of the month in the American League.

Six of the eight baseball staffers at the New York Daily News pick the
Sox. At the Chicago Tribune, it's five of seven, with national
baseball columnist Phil Rogers and longtime observer Fred Mitchell
saying they'll go all the way. In Detroit, where the Tigers jumped to
favorite's status with the acquisitions of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle
Willis, and Edgar Renteria, Free Press columnist Mitch Albom picks the
Sox over the Mets in the Series, while his esteemed colleague John
Lowe goes with the Sox over the Atlanta Braves.

New York Post columnist Joel Sherman ranks the Sox as the best team in
baseball. "Their starting point is that they have the best ace/closer
(Josh Beckett/Jonathan Papelbon) and 3-4 hitter (David Ortiz/Manny
Ramírez) combos, which is quite a way to start," Sherman writes. "Plus
they have the confidence/toughness that comes from winning it all."

At the rival New York Daily News, six of eight prognosticators pick
the Sox to win the division.

The respected statistical analysts, such as the folks at Baseball
Prospectus, rank the Red Sox No. 1. They have the Sox finishing 96-66,
showing a slight drop in runs scored from 2007 and a slight increase
in runs allowed. The Sox scored 867 runs in 2007 and allowed 657, a
staggering differential of plus-210; Baseball Prospectus forecasts 847
runs scored, 701 runs allowed.

"The decline in offense is predicated on bounces from J.D. Drew and
Julio Lugo not offsetting slips by David Ortiz - who was amazing last
year - Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell," writes Joe Sheehan of Baseball
Prospectus. "Even with all that, this is the best team in baseball."

The unsentimental crowd at Hardball Times, another bellwether of
statistical analysis, showed similar enthusiasm for the Sox, with 17
of 19 experts picking them to win the division.

There were a few cautionary notes out there. Bill Madden, longtime
national baseball columnist for the New York Daily News, is among
those who have fallen under the spell of the Toronto Blue Jays. On the
other side of the ocean, former Yankees outfielder Roy White, now an
analyst for Sankei Sports Daily in Japan, also picks the Blue Jays.

"The Red Sox may have a bit of a hangover," warns Jon Heyman at
SI.com. "Both Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett could have come to
camp in better shape (Who do they think they are, Curt Schilling?).
Yet it's still hard to pick against them."

Heyman, who has an acrimonious relationship with Schilling and is
virtually alone in making an issue of Beckett's and Matsuzaka's
conditioning, likes the Indians to win the American League pennant.

Tom Verducci, Sports Illustrated's award-winning writer, picks the Sox
to finish second in the division, behind the Yankees. But Verducci
pegs the Sox qualifying for the October tournament as the wild-card entry.

"Boston seems more prone to a fallback," Verducci writes, "if only
because recent world champions seem to be handed a tax bill the
following season - and if it hits Josh Beckett, look out."

For years, of course, the Sox have been dogged by forecasts of
collapsing in the end, a consequence of the "Curse of the Bambino"
mentality.

But being heavy favorites has its own drawbacks. Sox CEO Larry
Lucchino admits to being uncomfortable with the notion.

"The absolute hardest thing in sports is not to win," he wrote in an
e-mail yesterday, "it is to repeat. But, our goals have always
included multiple World Series championships. So, we march on."

Source: Gordon Edes, Globe Staff / boston.com