New York Times; March 28, 2004
A Top Rotation Includes Skill, Health and Luck
By Murray Chass

For years the best starting pitching rotation belonged to the Atlanta
Braves: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and whoever happened to
fill it out from year to year. No more. Maddux is in Chicago, Glavine
is in New York and Smoltz is in the bullpen.

Who has the best rotation now?

"Nobody's the best until they prove it," said Pedro Martínez, the
leader of a pretty good rotation in Boston. "We have a pretty good
staff here. You can never ignore Houston or the Cubs. The Yankees are
not bad either."

The others aside, the Astros and the Cubs have commanded the most
attention, both for the talent in their rotations and their depth.
That the teams play in the same division and will most likely compete
with each other for the division championship makes the comparison
more intriguing.

The Cubs' rotation has Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Maddux, Carlos
Zambrano and Matt Clement; the Astros have Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte,
Roger Clemens, Wade Miller and Tim Redding. Which rotation is better?

"If you ask 20 people, 10 might say them, 10 might say us," Gene
Lamont, Houston's third-base coach, said. "We've got a guy,
Robertson, who won 15 games for us last year and isn't in the
rotation."

Jeriome Robertson is an example of the scouting and development the
Astros have done in recent years. He was a 24th-round selection in
the 1995 draft. Miller (20th round) and Oswalt (23rd round) came in
the next year's draft. Redding was taken in the 20th round of the
1997 draft.

The Cubs' top two pitchers were more obvious prospects. Wood was the
fourth player selected in the 1995 draft, Prior the second player
chosen in the 2001 draft. They signed Zambrano as an amateur free
agent in 1997.

Each rotation has a future Hall of Famer who was signed for this
season as a free agent, Clemens and Maddux.

The Cubs seem to be the consensus pick as having the best rotation.
Two reasons were given by those who were asked and offered their
opinions: the Cubs' pitchers throw harder, and Pettitte and Clemens
face the adjustment of pitching in a new league. On the other hand,
the Cubs' pitchers will be throwing to a new catcher, Michael
Barrett, instead of Damian Miller.

Larry Rothschild, the Cubs' pitching coach, declined to proclaim his
starters the best.

"It's hard to tell," he said when asked which rotation was the
best. "Whoever stays the healthiest."

Doug Melvin looked at health, too, referring to the inflamed
Achilles' tendon that will have Prior on the disabled list when the
season begins.

"If Prior is healthy, the Cubs," said Melvin, the Milwaukee general
manager, whose team has to face both rotations far more than it cares
to. "If Prior is not, I think I'd go with the Astros."

Brad Ausmus, the Houston catcher, wasn't taking anything away from
his team's rotation, but he offered his candid assessment of the Cubs.

"Their entire staff, except for Maddux, throws 100," he
said. "They've gained an extra year of experience, including
postseason experience. They're going to be very good but, fortunately
for everyone else in the league, we play the games instead of just
looking at the rosters."

Ausmus added that the Cubs do more than throw hard.

"Throwing 100 doesn't hurt," he said, "but Kerry Wood has an
excellent curveball, and he's throwing a slider. Mark Prior has the
ability to locate the fastball, and he has a very good curveball.
Carlos Zambrano throws hard but has tremendous movement. He doesn't
have to use that many off-speed pitches because his fastball sinks so
much, he gets a lot of ground balls or swings and misses. The
velocity stands out, but these guys have other weapons."

Speaking of his own pitchers, Ausmus said: "I'm looking for Wade
Miller to come back and have a real strong season after having a
mediocre season. I don't think there's any question that Roy Oswalt
has some of the best stuff in baseball. Tim Redding should continue
his improvement. He made some great strides last year, physically and
emotionally."

The two rotations will face each other 19 times this year in roughly
a three-month period, from May 25 to Aug. 29. Perhaps the answer to
the question will emerge from those games.

"I believe you have to go on the field and prove it," Martínez
said. "You have to go to the ground and step on the white line and
say this is the best rotation. It has to be done each season. You
never know what's going to happen."

Tatis Has Nowhere to Go

When Fernando Tatis hit 34 home runs, drove in 107 runs and
batted .298 for St. Louis in 1999, he looked as if he would be a star
slugger for years to come. His was a nice story, how he found his
father in 1997 after a 17-year separation, and his lusty hitting
added to it.

But last week Tampa Bay released the 29-year-old Tatis. If you can't
play for the Devil Rays, whom can you play for?

"Injuries have hurt him," said Omar Minaya, the Montreal Expos'
general manager. When they worked for the Texas Rangers, Minaya was
instrumental in helping Tatis locate his father. "He came back early
from a real bad groin pull, hurt his knee, then his arm compensating
for that injury. He should have stayed out the whole year. The last
two years he tried to play hurt."

Now Tatis's baseball future is in serious doubt.

Mazzilli Has Paid His Dues

In his early years as a player, Lee Mazzilli may have been one of the
last players anyone would have seen as a manager. Now that he is the
manager of the Baltimore Orioles, he is sensitive to that view of
him. When it was mentioned to him that people were surprised at the
development, he said defensively: "Why were people surprised? I don't
know why anyone would feel that way."

Would he have looked at himself and seen a future manager?

"Yeah, I would," he said. Then he added, tacitly acknowledging his
image as a carefree young player: "When do you look at a guy? When
he's 20 years old? I don't think so."

He went on: "This was always a goal for me. I always wanted to
manage. If you want to do it, you have to pay your dues."

Mazzilli managed for three years in the minor leagues in the Yankees
system, then served as a major league coach with them for four years.
Dani Mazzilli helped him start on that road.

"My wife pushed me out the door at the time," he said. "She said,
`This is what you want to do.' When you're in New York, people think
you have to go right to the big leagues. No one just gives you
anything in this game. You have to earn it. I was fortunate to get a
major league job. I'm very proud of that."