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#605 From: "Gary McIntosh" <mcintosh@...>
Date: Mon Oct 1, 2007 12:18 pm
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do th 		garymcut
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It’s tough for me…..probably 1) Holliday; 2) Rollins; 3) Wright but it would be a really tough decision to make

 

Gary D McIntosh CPA

Brown, Graham & Co PC

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Member of the Board of Directors of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants

 

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email:  mcintosh@...

 

Any U.S. tax advice contained in the body of this e-mail was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by the recipient for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed under the Internal Revenue Code or applicable state or local tax law provisions.

 


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#604 From: "Scoop" <unclescoopy@...>
Date: Mon Oct 1, 2007 5:29 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		billclintonus
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If Peavy wins the playoff game tomorrow, he'd be my choice for MVP as well as Cy Young.
 
He pretty much single-handedly took the Pads where they are. He's 10-1 in his last 11 decisions, with the playoffs on the line every time he takes the mound. (Even at that, they could do no better than tie for the wild card.)
 
He was blown out in the one loss, but in the ten wins and the two no-decisions during that period, he never allowed more than two earned runs.
 
A win tomorrow would clinch my ballot. He might still deserve it if he loses the game, but nobody ever votes for ya if ya lose one for the Gipper.
 
If Peavy doesn't manage to win tomorrow's game, I'd have to do give it some serious thought ... Rollins, Howard, Pujols, Hanley R, Chipper, Wright, Holliday, Soriano ...
 
Poor Magglio. He has the same problem as his team. In the wrong league. I suppose the Tigers would have won any of the three NL divisions, and Magglio would have been the runaway MVP and the best hitter in the NL, given the decline of Bonds and a slight off-year from King Pujols.
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 10:05 PM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

I'm into the "whose team is in the playoffs" factor when it's too close to call.  A-Rod is the hands down winner in the AL, but there's a jumble in the NL.  I'd give it to Holliday if the Rockies make it.  Check out that amazing September by him to drive this team to their miraculous run. 




On 9/30/07, billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net <billcgilbert@sbcglobal.net > wrote:

Greg-
 
    I think we have an irreconcilable difference of opinion.  But that is one thing that makes baseball interesting.  Jim Baker's post was instructive, showing that Holliday ranks high even when using sophisticated metrics that include park effects.
 
    I have been leaning toward David Wright as the National League MVP but, if I had a vote, I'd give it to Jimmy Rollins with Wright second and Holliday third.  Who would be your choice?
 
Bill Gilbert
 
      
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Scoop <unclescoopy@ msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 3:31:07 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Frankly, Bill, your argument makes no sense to me at all. In essence what you are saying is this: any decent hitter in either league would earn MVP consideration from you if they were traded to the Rockies, since they would "accomplish" so much by accumulating slo-pitch softball stats in half of their games. The point is that a hitter's accomplishments should be measured by what they contribute to winning, not to amassing raw stats.  The reason for considering park effects is that b ig stats at Coors do not really contribute a spectacular amount to winning, because the context is so very different from any other park. One needs many more runs to win games there. If you were to hit .376 with 25 homers in your home games in San Diego, you would contribute enough to winning that you'd certainly get my MVP vote. But a man who creates 75 runs in his home games at Coors (where 838 runs have been scored this year) contributes no more to winning than a man who creates 55 runs in San Diego (601 runs). To put it another way, if you assume a flawless correlation between runs and OPS (not completely accurate, but useful for the moment), a guy who has an OPS of 1.000 playing half of his games at Coors contributes no more to winning than a guy with an OPS of .833 who plays half of his games in San Diego.
 
Adrian Gonzales, with an OPS of 846, contributes about as much to winning as Holliday, with an OPS over 1000.
 
And they play for teams with about equal records. In fact, they play for nearly identical teams. Here are the road records for the two teams:
 
Padres Scored  401 Allowed 364
Rockies Scored  382 Allowed 362
 
(Yes, that's right, the Rockies' pitchers have allowed fewer runs on the road than the vaunted Padres' staff. Pitching for the Rockies is a thankless task, indeed.)
 
The assumption that Adsrian contributes as much as Matt is certainly not dispelled when one drills down inside the road stats. Indeed, you might conclude that the teams have equally potent offenses, and Gonzales actually contributes somewhat more offensively to his team than Holiday. Adrian's road OPS is .893 with 17-56, compared to .860 11-55 for Matt. The difference between the two men is that Gonzales's home numbers make his annual contribution look somewhat anemic, while Holliday's home numbers make him seem like ... er ... Dante Bichette.
 
Of course I don't think Coors Field stats should be disregarded. I would not argue to base all judgment on road stats and ignore one's ability to capitalize on a home field. It's just that Coors numbers have to be measured in light of how many runs are needed to win at Coors. Holliday's talents are not worthless. Although Todd Helton actually has slightly better road numbers this year (868 OPS to 860), Holliday is now WAY better at capitalizing on the unique properties of Coors, and that does have real value to the team, just as Fred Lynn's amazing abilities at Fenway had real value to the Red Sox. Holliday has been more valuable to the team than Helton, despite Helton's advantage in road numbers.
 
And I don't mean to denigrate Holliday. Matt has batted .301 on the road with 11 homers, and that's a good hitter. You might even say a very good hitter. But not a guy who has done enough to be an MVP candidate.
 
------------ --------- ------
 
As for Galarraga, there was no real surprise there. Like every major player who has left Coors, his road stats in his final year with Colorado provided an excellent predictor of his performance with his next team.
 
* Andres Gallaraga  hit .295 on the road with 20 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors, he hit .305 with 44 homers
* Vinny Castilla hit .269 on the road with 13 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first full season out of Coors, he hit. 260 with 25 homers.
* Dante Bichette hit .287 on the road with 14 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors he hit .294 with 23 homers.
* Larry Walker played only 144 more games after he left Coors, batting .286 with 26 homers. That's a tough one to create a comp for because he was traded mid-season and injured the previous year, but his lifetime performance on the road per 162 games was .278 with 27 homers. That sounds like the exact same guy who showed up in St Louis.
 
------------ --------- --------
 
By the way, I don't mean to cast any indirect aspersions on Jake Peavy with what I wrote above. While most of the Padres staff appears to be more than merely competent only because of their home park, Peavy is just plain good. He's 10-1 2.16 on the road. Some of the other stats are crazy: David Wells has a 7.99 era on the road. Chris Young has 1.69 at home, 4.52 on the road. Trevor Hoffman: 1.80 at home, 3.68 on the road.)
 

----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 12:16 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

    It makes no sense to me to include park effects when considering players for awards.  Players should be evaluated based on what they actually accomplished for their teams, rather than what they might have done on a "level playing field".  If I understand Greg's argument, he is suggesting that Coors Field stats should be completely disregarded.  This makes about as much sense as Al Gore's contention that mere mortals can affect the weather.
 
    Park effects do have value in evaluating players but not for awards.  If another team wanted to trade for Holliday, they should certainly take his home-road stats into consideration.  I remember that many baseball analysts felt that the Atlanta Braves made a big mistake in 1998 when they signed Andres Galarraga after he had 5 big years in Colorado since it was felt he was largely a product of Coors Field.  All he did was to go 305-44-124 with a .595 slugging percentage in his first year in Atlanta.
 
    If I had an MVP vote, it would probably not be for Holliday but he would certainly be in the conversation.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@ msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups .com
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2007 11:36:29 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!

You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!

Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)

The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: 487 and .485. OBP: 364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.





Reply | Forward | Messages in this Topic (26)
#603 From: "Paul Sporer" <sporer@...>
Date: Mon Oct 1, 2007 3:06 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		sporer@...
Send Email Send Email
 
I wouldn't be completely averse to Rollins winning it. 

On 9/30/07, Jim Baker <jimbaker1066@... > wrote:

I don't know who my vote would be for, but I think Rollins won the award today with that head-first slide into third for his 20th triple of the season. Voters love that kind of thing.



billcgilbert@... wrote:
Greg-
 
    I think we have an irreconcilable difference of opinion.  But that is one thing that makes baseball interesting.  Jim Baker's post was instructive, showing that Holliday ranks high even when using sophisticated metrics that include park effects.
 
    I have been leaning toward David Wright as the National League MVP but, if I had a vote, I'd give it to Jimmy Rollins with Wright second and Holliday third.  Who would be your choice?
 
Bill Gilbert
 
      
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Scoop <unclescoopy@msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 3:31:07 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Frankly, Bill, your argument makes no sense to me at all. In essence what you are saying is this: any decent hitter in either league would earn MVP consideration from you if they were traded to the Rockies, since they would "accomplish" so much by accumulating slo-pitch softball stats in half of their games. The point is that a hitter's accomplishments should be measured by what they contribute to winning, not to amassing raw stats.  The reason for considering park effects is that b ig stats at Coors do not really contribute a spectacular amount to winning, because the context is so very different from any other park. One needs many more runs to win games there. If you were to hit .376 with 25 homers in your home games in San Diego, you would contribute enough to winning that you'd certainly get my MVP vote. But a man who creates 75 runs in his home games at Coors (where 838 runs have been scored this year) contributes no more to winning than a man who creates 55 runs in San Diego (601 runs). To put it another way, if you assume a flawless correlation between runs and OPS (not completely accurate, but useful for the moment), a guy who has an OPS of 1.000 playing half of his games at Coors contributes no more to winning than a guy with an OPS of .833 who plays half of his games in San Diego.
 
Adrian Gonzales, with an OPS of .846, contributes about as much to winning as Holliday, with an OPS over 1000.
 
And they play for teams with about equal records. In fact, they play for nearly identical teams. Here are the road records for the two teams:
 
Padres Scored  401 Allowed 364
Rockies Scored  382 Allowed 362
 
(Yes, that's right, the Rockies' pitchers have allowed fewer runs on the road than the vaunted Padres' staff. Pitching for the Rockies is a thankless task, indeed.)
 
The assumption that Adsrian contributes as much as Matt is certainly not dispelled when one drills down inside the road stats. Indeed, you might conclude that the teams have equally potent offenses, and Gonzales actually contributes somewhat more offensively to his team than Holiday. Adrian's road OPS is .893 with 17-56, compared to .860 11-55 for Matt. The difference between the two men is that Gonzales's home numbers make his annual contribution look somewhat anemic, while Holliday's home numbers make him seem like ... er ... Dante Bichette.
 
Of course I don't think Coors Field stats should be disregarded. I would not argue to base all judgment on road stats and ignore one's ability to capitalize on a home field. It's just that Coors numbers have to be measured in light of how many runs are needed to win at Coors. Holliday's talents are not worthless. Although Todd Helton actually has slightly better road numbers this year (868 OPS to 860), Holliday is now WAY better at capitalizing on the unique properties of Coors, and that does have real value to the team, just as Fred Lynn's amazing abilities at Fenway had real value to the Red Sox. Holliday has been more valuable to the team than Helton, despite Helton's advantage in road numbers.
 
And I don't mean to denigrate Holliday. Matt has batted .301 on the road with 11 homers, and that's a good hitter. You might even say a very good hitter. But not a guy who has done enough to be an MVP candidate.
 
------------ --------- ------
 
As for Galarraga, there was no real surprise there. Like every major player who has left Coors, his road stats in his final year with Colorado provided an excellent predictor of his performance with his next team.
 
* Andres Gallaraga  hit .295 on the road with 20 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors, he hit .305 with 44 homers
* Vinny Castilla hit .269 on the road with 13 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first full season out of Coors, he hit. 260 with 25 homers.
* Dante Bichette hit .287 on the road with 14 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors he hit .294 with 23 homers.
* Larry Walker played only 144 more games after he left Coors, batting .286 with 26 homers. That's a tough one to create a comp for because he was traded mid-season and injured the previous year, but his lifetime performance on the road per 162 games was .278 with 27 homers. That sounds like the exact same guy who showed up in St Louis.
 
------------ --------- --------
 
By the way, I don't mean to cast any indirect aspersions on Jake Peavy with what I wrote above. While most of the Padres staff appears to be more than merely competent only because of their home park, Peavy is just plain good. He's 10-1 2.16 on the road. Some of the other stats are crazy: David Wells has a 7.99 era on the road. Chris Young has 1.69 at home, 4.52 on the road. Trevor Hoffman: 1.80 at home, 3.68 on the road.)
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 12:16 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

    It makes no sense to me to include park effects when considering players for awards.  Players should be evaluated based on what they actually accomplished for their teams, rather than what they might have done on a "level playing field".  If I understand Greg's argument, he is suggesting that Coors Field stats should be completely disregarded.  This makes about as much sense as Al Gore's contention that mere mortals can affect the weather.
 
    Park effects do have value in evaluating players but not for awards.  If another team wanted to trade for Holliday, they should certainly take his home-road stats into consideration.  I remember that many baseball analysts felt that the Atlanta Braves made a big mistake in 1998 when they signed Andres Galarraga after he had 5 big years in Colorado since it was felt he was largely a product of Coors Field.  All he did was to go .305-44-124 with a .595 slugging percentage in his first year in Atlanta.
 
    If I had an MVP vote, it would probably not be for Holliday but he would certainly be in the conversation.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@ msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups .com
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2007 11:36:29 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!
You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!
Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)
The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: 364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.



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Reply | Forward | Messages in this Topic (26)
#602 From: "Paul Sporer" <sporer@...>
Date: Mon Oct 1, 2007 3:05 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		sporer@...
Send Email Send Email
 
I'm into the "whose team is in the playoffs" factor when it's too close to call.  A-Rod is the hands down winner in the AL, but there's a jumble in the NL.  I'd give it to Holliday if the Rockies make it.  Check out that amazing September by him to drive this team to their miraculous run. 




On 9/30/07, billcgilbert@... <billcgilbert@... > wrote:

Greg-
 
    I think we have an irreconcilable difference of opinion.  But that is one thing that makes baseball interesting.  Jim Baker's post was instructive, showing that Holliday ranks high even when using sophisticated metrics that include park effects.
 
    I have been leaning toward David Wright as the National League MVP but, if I had a vote, I'd give it to Jimmy Rollins with Wright second and Holliday third.  Who would be your choice?
 
Bill Gilbert
 
      
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Scoop <unclescoopy@ msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 3:31:07 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Frankly, Bill, your argument makes no sense to me at all. In essence what you are saying is this: any decent hitter in either league would earn MVP consideration from you if they were traded to the Rockies, since they would "accomplish" so much by accumulating slo-pitch softball stats in half of their games. The point is that a hitter's accomplishments should be measured by what they contribute to winning, not to amassing raw stats.  The reason for considering park effects is that b ig stats at Coors do not really contribute a spectacular amount to winning, because the context is so very different from any other park. One needs many more runs to win games there. If you were to hit .376 with 25 homers in your home games in San Diego, you would contribute enough to winning that you'd certainly get my MVP vote. But a man who creates 75 runs in his home games at Coors (where 838 runs have been scored this year) contributes no more to winning than a man who creates 55 runs in San Diego (601 runs). To put it another way, if you assume a flawless correlation between runs and OPS (not completely accurate, but useful for the moment), a guy who has an OPS of 1.000 playing half of his games at Coors contributes no more to winning than a guy with an OPS of .833 who plays half of his games in San Diego.
 
Adrian Gonzales, with an OPS of .846, contributes about as much to winning as Holliday, with an OPS over 1000.
 
And they play for teams with about equal records. In fact, they play for nearly identical teams. Here are the road records for the two teams:
 
Padres Scored  401 Allowed 364
Rockies Scored  382 Allowed 362
 
(Yes, that's right, the Rockies' pitchers have allowed fewer runs on the road than the vaunted Padres' staff. Pitching for the Rockies is a thankless task, indeed.)
 
The assumption that Adsrian contributes as much as Matt is certainly not dispelled when one drills down inside the road stats. Indeed, you might conclude that the teams have equally potent offenses, and Gonzales actually contributes somewhat more offensively to his team than Holiday. Adrian's road OPS is .893 with 17-56, compared to .860 11-55 for Matt. The difference between the two men is that Gonzales's home numbers make his annual contribution look somewhat anemic, while Holliday's home numbers make him seem like ... er ... Dante Bichette.
 
Of course I don't think Coors Field stats should be disregarded. I would not argue to base all judgment on road stats and ignore one's ability to capitalize on a home field. It's just that Coors numbers have to be measured in light of how many runs are needed to win at Coors. Holliday's talents are not worthless. Although Todd Helton actually has slightly better road numbers this year (868 OPS to 860), Holliday is now WAY better at capitalizing on the unique properties of Coors, and that does have real value to the team, just as Fred Lynn's amazing abilities at Fenway had real value to the Red Sox. Holliday has been more valuable to the team than Helton, despite Helton's advantage in road numbers.
 
And I don't mean to denigrate Holliday. Matt has batted .301 on the road with 11 homers, and that's a good hitter. You might even say a very good hitter. But not a guy who has done enough to be an MVP candidate.
 
------------ --------- ------
 
As for Galarraga, there was no real surprise there. Like every major player who has left Coors, his road stats in his final year with Colorado provided an excellent predictor of his performance with his next team.
 
* Andres Gallaraga  hit .295 on the road with 20 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors, he hit .305 with 44 homers
* Vinny Castilla hit .269 on the road with 13 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first full season out of Coors, he hit. 260 with 25 homers.
* Dante Bichette hit .287 on the road with 14 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors he hit .294 with 23 homers.
* Larry Walker played only 144 more games after he left Coors, batting .286 with 26 homers. That's a tough one to create a comp for because he was traded mid-season and injured the previous year, but his lifetime performance on the road per 162 games was .278 with 27 homers. That sounds like the exact same guy who showed up in St Louis.
 
------------ --------- --------
 
By the way, I don't mean to cast any indirect aspersions on Jake Peavy with what I wrote above. While most of the Padres staff appears to be more than merely competent only because of their home park, Peavy is just plain good. He's 10-1 2.16 on the road. Some of the other stats are crazy: David Wells has a 7.99 era on the road. Chris Young has 1.69 at home, 4.52 on the road. Trevor Hoffman: 1.80 at home, 3.68 on the road.)
 

----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 12:16 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

    It makes no sense to me to include park effects when considering players for awards.  Players should be evaluated based on what they actually accomplished for their teams, rather than what they might have done on a "level playing field".  If I understand Greg's argument, he is suggesting that Coors Field stats should be completely disregarded.  This makes about as much sense as Al Gore's contention that mere mortals can affect the weather.
 
    Park effects do have value in evaluating players but not for awards.  If another team wanted to trade for Holliday, they should certainly take his home-road stats into consideration.  I remember that many baseball analysts felt that the Atlanta Braves made a big mistake in 1998 when they signed Andres Galarraga after he had 5 big years in Colorado since it was felt he was largely a product of Coors Field.  All he did was to go .305-44-124 with a .595 slugging percentage in his first year in Atlanta.
 
    If I had an MVP vote, it would probably not be for Holliday but he would certainly be in the conversation.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@ msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups .com
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2007 11:36:29 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!

You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!

Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)

The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: 364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.





Reply | Forward | Messages in this Topic (26)
#601 From: Jim Baker <jimbaker1066@...>
Date: Mon Oct 1, 2007 2:57 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		jimbaker1066
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I don't know who my vote would be for, but I think Rollins won the award today with that head-first slide into third for his 20th triple of the season. Voters love that kind of thing.

billcgilbert@... wrote:
Greg-
 
    I think we have an irreconcilable difference of opinion.  But that is one thing that makes baseball interesting.  Jim Baker's post was instructive, showing that Holliday ranks high even when using sophisticated metrics that include park effects.
 
    I have been leaning toward David Wright as the National League MVP but, if I had a vote, I'd give it to Jimmy Rollins with Wright second and Holliday third.  Who would be your choice?
 
Bill Gilbert
 
      
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Scoop <unclescoopy@msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 3:31:07 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Frankly, Bill, your argument makes no sense to me at all. In essence what you are saying is this: any decent hitter in either league would earn MVP consideration from you if they were traded to the Rockies, since they would "accomplish" so much by accumulating slo-pitch softball stats in half of their games. The point is that a hitter's accomplishments should be measured by what they contribute to winning, not to amassing raw stats.  The reason for considering park effects is that big stats at Coors do not really contribute a spectacular amount to winning, because the context is so very different from any other park. One needs many more runs to win games there. If you were to hit .376 with 25 homers in your home games in San Diego, you would contribute enough to winning that you'd certainly get my MVP vote. But a man who creates 75 runs in his home games at Coors (where 838 runs have been scored this year) contributes no more to winning than a man who creates 55 runs in San Diego (601 runs). To put it another way, if you assume a flawless correlation between runs and OPS (not completely accurate, but useful for the moment), a guy who has an OPS of 1.000 playing half of his games at Coors contributes no more to winning than a guy with an OPS of .833 who plays half of his games in San Diego.
 
Adrian Gonzales, with an OPS of .846, contributes about as much to winning as Holliday, with an OPS over 1000.
 
And they play for teams with about equal records. In fact, they play for nearly identical teams. Here are the road records for the two teams:
 
Padres Scored  401 Allowed 364
Rockies Scored  382 Allowed 362
 
(Yes, that's right, the Rockies' pitchers have allowed fewer runs on the road than the vaunted Padres' staff. Pitching for the Rockies is a thankless task, indeed.)
 
The assumption that Adsrian contributes as much as Matt is certainly not dispelled when one drills down inside the road stats. Indeed, you might conclude that the teams have equally potent offenses, and Gonzales actually contributes somewhat more offensively to his team than Holiday. Adrian's road OPS is .893 with 17-56, compared to .860 11-55 for Matt. The difference between the two men is that Gonzales's home numbers make his annual contribution look somewhat anemic, while Holliday's home numbers make him seem like ... er ... Dante Bichette.
 
Of course I don't think Coors Field stats should be disregarded. I would not argue to base all judgment on road stats and ignore one's ability to capitalize on a home field. It's just that Coors numbers have to be measured in light of how many runs are needed to win at Coors. Holliday's talents are not worthless. Although Todd Helton actually has slightly better road numbers this year (868 OPS to 860), Holliday is now WAY better at capitalizing on the unique properties of Coors, and that does have real value to the team, just as Fred Lynn's amazing abilities at Fenway had real value to the Red Sox. Holliday has been more valuable to the team than Helton, despite Helton's advantage in road numbers.
 
And I don't mean to denigrate Holliday. Matt has batted .301 on the road with 11 homers, and that's a good hitter. You might even say a very good hitter. But not a guy who has done enough to be an MVP candidate.
 
------------ --------- ------
 
As for Galarraga, there was no real surprise there. Like every major player who has left Coors, his road stats in his final year with Colorado provided an excellent predictor of his performance with his next team.
 
* Andres Gallaraga  hit .295 on the road with 20 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors, he hit .305 with 44 homers
* Vinny Castilla hit .269 on the road with 13 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first full season out of Coors, he hit. 260 with 25 homers.
* Dante Bichette hit .287 on the road with 14 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors he hit .294 with 23 homers.
* Larry Walker played only 144 more games after he left Coors, batting .286 with 26 homers. That's a tough one to create a comp for because he was traded mid-season and injured the previous year, but his lifetime performance on the road per 162 games was .278 with 27 homers. That sounds like the exact same guy who showed up in St Louis.
 
------------ --------- --------
 
By the way, I don't mean to cast any indirect aspersions on Jake Peavy with what I wrote above. While most of the Padres staff appears to be more than merely competent only because of their home park, Peavy is just plain good. He's 10-1 2.16 on the road. Some of the other stats are crazy: David Wells has a 7.99 era on the road. Chris Young has 1.69 at home, 4.52 on the road. Trevor Hoffman: 1.80 at home, 3.68 on the road.)
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 12:16 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

    It makes no sense to me to include park effects when considering players for awards.  Players should be evaluated based on what they actually accomplished for their teams, rather than what they might have done on a "level playing field".  If I understand Greg's argument, he is suggesting that Coors Field stats should be completely disregarded.  This makes about as much sense as Al Gore's contention that mere mortals can affect the weather.
 
    Park effects do have value in evaluating players but not for awards.  If another team wanted to trade for Holliday, they should certainly take his home-road stats into consideration.  I remember that many baseball analysts felt that the Atlanta Braves made a big mistake in 1998 when they signed Andres Galarraga after he had 5 big years in Colorado since it was felt he was largely a product of Coors Field.  All he did was to go .305-44-124 with a .595 slugging percentage in his first year in Atlanta.
 
    If I had an MVP vote, it would probably not be for Holliday but he would certainly be in the conversation.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@ msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups .com
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2007 11:36:29 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!
You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!
Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)
The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: 364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.



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#600 From: billcgilbert@...
Date: Mon Oct 1, 2007 2:54 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		bgilbert35
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Greg-
 
    I think we have an irreconcilable difference of opinion.  But that is one thing that makes baseball interesting.  Jim Baker's post was instructive, showing that Holliday ranks high even when using sophisticated metrics that include park effects.
 
    I have been leaning toward David Wright as the National League MVP but, if I had a vote, I'd give it to Jimmy Rollins with Wright second and Holliday third.  Who would be your choice?
 
Bill Gilbert
 
      
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Scoop <unclescoopy@...>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 3:31:07 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Frankly, Bill, your argument makes no sense to me at all. In essence what you are saying is this: any decent hitter in either league would earn MVP consideration from you if they were traded to the Rockies, since they would "accomplish" so much by accumulating slo-pitch softball stats in half of their games. The point is that a hitter's accomplishments should be measured by what they contribute to winning, not to amassing raw stats.  The reason for considering park effects is that big stats at Coors do not really contribute a spectacular amount to winning, because the context is so very different from any other park. One needs many more runs to win games there. If you were to hit .376 with 25 homers in your home games in San Diego, you would contribute enough to winning that you'd certainly get my MVP vote. But a man who creates 75 runs in his home games at Coors (where 838 runs have been scored this year) contributes no more to winning than a man who creates 55 runs in San Diego (601 runs). To put it another way, if you assume a flawless correlation between runs and OPS (not completely accurate, but useful for the moment), a guy who has an OPS of 1.000 playing half of his games at Coors contributes no more to winning than a guy with an OPS of .833 who plays half of his games in San Diego.
 
Adrian Gonzales, with an OPS of .846, contributes about as much to winning as Holliday, with an OPS over 1000.
 
And they play for teams with about equal records. In fact, they play for nearly identical teams. Here are the road records for the two teams:
 
Padres Scored  401 Allowed 364
Rockies Scored  382 Allowed 362
 
(Yes, that's right, the Rockies' pitchers have allowed fewer runs on the road than the vaunted Padres' staff. Pitching for the Rockies is a thankless task, indeed.)
 
The assumption that Adsrian contributes as much as Matt is certainly not dispelled when one drills down inside the road stats. Indeed, you might conclude that the teams have equally potent offenses, and Gonzales actually contributes somewhat more offensively to his team than Holiday. Adrian's road OPS is .893 with 17-56, compared to .860 11-55 for Matt. The difference between the two men is that Gonzales's home numbers make his annual contribution look somewhat anemic, while Holliday's home numbers make him seem like ... er ... Dante Bichette.
 
Of course I don't think Coors Field stats should be disregarded. I would not argue to base all judgment on road stats and ignore one's ability to capitalize on a home field. It's just that Coors numbers have to be measured in light of how many runs are needed to win at Coors. Holliday's talents are not worthless. Although Todd Helton actually has slightly better road numbers this year (868 OPS to 860), Holliday is now WAY better at capitalizing on the unique properties of Coors, and that does have real value to the team, just as Fred Lynn's amazing abilities at Fenway had real value to the Red Sox. Holliday has been more valuable to the team than Helton, despite Helton's advantage in road numbers.
 
And I don't mean to denigrate Holliday. Matt has batted .301 on the road with 11 homers, and that's a good hitter. You might even say a very good hitter. But not a guy who has done enough to be an MVP candidate.
 
------------ --------- ------
 
As for Galarraga, there was no real surprise there. Like every major player who has left Coors, his road stats in his final year with Colorado provided an excellent predictor of his performance with his next team.
 
* Andres Gallaraga  hit .295 on the road with 20 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors, he hit .305 with 44 homers
* Vinny Castilla hit .269 on the road with 13 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first full season out of Coors, he hit. 260 with 25 homers.
* Dante Bichette hit .287 on the road with 14 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors he hit .294 with 23 homers.
* Larry Walker played only 144 more games after he left Coors, batting .286 with 26 homers. That's a tough one to create a comp for because he was traded mid-season and injured the previous year, but his lifetime performance on the road per 162 games was .278 with 27 homers. That sounds like the exact same guy who showed up in St Louis.
 
------------ --------- --------
 
By the way, I don't mean to cast any indirect aspersions on Jake Peavy with what I wrote above. While most of the Padres staff appears to be more than merely competent only because of their home park, Peavy is just plain good. He's 10-1 2.16 on the road. Some of the other stats are crazy: David Wells has a 7.99 era on the road. Chris Young has 1.69 at home, 4.52 on the road. Trevor Hoffman: 1.80 at home, 3.68 on the road.)
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 12:16 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

    It makes no sense to me to include park effects when considering players for awards.  Players should be evaluated based on what they actually accomplished for their teams, rather than what they might have done on a "level playing field".  If I understand Greg's argument, he is suggesting that Coors Field stats should be completely disregarded.  This makes about as much sense as Al Gore's contention that mere mortals can affect the weather.
 
    Park effects do have value in evaluating players but not for awards.  If another team wanted to trade for Holliday, they should certainly take his home-road stats into consideration.  I remember that many baseball analysts felt that the Atlanta Braves made a big mistake in 1998 when they signed Andres Galarraga after he had 5 big years in Colorado since it was felt he was largely a product of Coors Field.  All he did was to go .305-44-124 with a .595 slugging percentage in his first year in Atlanta.
 
    If I had an MVP vote, it would probably not be for Holliday but he would certainly be in the conversation.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@ msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups .com
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2007 11:36:29 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!

You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!

Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)

The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: 364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.




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#599 From: Cyril Morong <cyrilmorong@...>
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 7:57 pm
Subject: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		cyrilmorong
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I should have said that the Ramirez on the list I sent before was Hanley
 
Cy Morong

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#598 From: "Scoop" <unclescoopy@...>
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:24 pm
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		billclintonus
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If only Win Shares made even the slightest bit of sense!
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 12:16 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Here are the NL Win Shares leaders according the the Hardball Times
 
Wright   32  
Pujols   29  
Byrnes   28  
Beltran  27  
Ramirez  27  
Cabrera  27  
Utley   26  
Rollins  26  
Holliday  26  
Fielder  26 
 
Cy Morong


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#597 From: Cyril Morong <cyrilmorong@...>
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:16 pm
Subject: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		cyrilmorong
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Here are the NL Win Shares leaders according the the Hardball Times
 
Wright   32  
Pujols   29  
Byrnes   28  
Beltran  27  
Ramirez  27  
Cabrera  27  
Utley   26  
Rollins  26  
Holliday  26  
Fielder  26 
 
Cy Morong

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#596 From: Jim Baker <jimbaker1066@...>
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 12:10 pm
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		jimbaker1066
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Inspired by this thread, I've been looking at various BP metrics for the best NL players. The chart is attached and the definitions of those metrics are below. Holliday surprised me and rates very high in WARP3.
 
Remember that Baseball Prospectus metrics do take into account park effects and league context, so this high rating for Holliday is not just a Coors thing working here. WARP3 includes defense, the other three numbers I looked at do not, although VORP and VORPr take into account the position a player plays. A shortstop and a firstbaseman who both hit .291/.351/.509 playing on the same team in the same number of games would have different VORP because, while those are great numbers for a shortstop, they're more typical of a first baseman. WARP3 also includes pitchers.
 
For those that don't want to crack the file or who don't have Excel, the WARP3 leaders are these heading into the last day of the season:
 
 
VORP
Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.
 
VORPr
VORP rate. Runs/game contributed beyond what a replacement level player would produce. Also a rate stat.
 
EqA
Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.
 
WARP3
WARP3 is WARP2 (Wins Above Replacement Player, with difficulty added into the mix. One of the factors that goes into league difficulty is whether or not the league uses a DH, which is why recent AL players tend to get a larger boost than their NL counterparts.) expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. Initially, I was just going to use (162/season length) as the multiplier, but this seemed to overexpand the very short seasons of the 19th century. I settled on using (162/scheduled games) ** (2/3). So Ross Barnes' 6.2 wins in 1873, a 55 game season, only gets extended to 12.8 WARP, instead of a straight-line adjustment of 18.3.
For most hitters, at least, it is just that simple. Pitchers are treated differently, as we not only look at season length, but the typical number of innings thrown by a top starting pitcher that year (defined by the average IP of the top five in IP). We find it hard to argue that pitchers throwing 300 or more innings a year are suffering some sort of discrimination in the standings due to having shortened seasons. This why Walter Johnson has almost no adjustment between WARP-2 and WARP-3, while his contemporaries Cobb, Speaker, and Collins all gain around 7 or 8 wins.


billcgilbert@... wrote:
    It makes no sense to me to include park effects when considering players for awards.  Players should be evaluated based on what they actually accomplished for their teams, rather than what they might have done on a "level playing field".  If I understand Greg's argument, he is suggesting that Coors Field stats should be completely disregarded.  This makes about as much sense as Al Gore's contention that mere mortals can affect the weather.
 
    Park effects do have value in evaluating players but not for awards.  If another team wanted to trade for Holliday, they should certainly take his home-road stats into consideration.  I remember that many baseball analysts felt that the Atlanta Braves made a big mistake in 1998 when they signed Andres Galarraga after he had 5 big years in Colorado since it was felt he was largely a product of Coors Field.  All he did was to go .305-44-124 with a .595 slugging percentage in his first year in Atlanta.
 
    If I had an MVP vote, it would probably not be for Holliday but he would certainly be in the conversation.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2007 11:36:29 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!
You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!
Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)
The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: .364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.


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#595 From: "Scoop" <unclescoopy@...>
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 8:31 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		billclintonus
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Frankly, Bill, your argument makes no sense to me at all. In essence what you are saying is this: any decent hitter in either league would earn MVP consideration from you if they were traded to the Rockies, since they would "accomplish" so much by accumulating slo-pitch softball stats in half of their games. The point is that a hitter's accomplishments should be measured by what they contribute to winning, not to amassing raw stats.  The reason for considering park effects is that big stats at Coors do not really contribute a spectacular amount to winning, because the context is so very different from any other park. One needs many more runs to win games there. If you were to hit .376 with 25 homers in your home games in San Diego, you would contribute enough to winning that you'd certainly get my MVP vote. But a man who creates 75 runs in his home games at Coors (where 838 runs have been scored this year) contributes no more to winning than a man who creates 55 runs in San Diego (601 runs). To put it another way, if you assume a flawless correlation between runs and OPS (not completely accurate, but useful for the moment), a guy who has an OPS of 1.000 playing half of his games at Coors contributes no more to winning than a guy with an OPS of .833 who plays half of his games in San Diego.
 
Adrian Gonzales, with an OPS of .846, contributes about as much to winning as Holliday, with an OPS over 1000.
 
And they play for teams with about equal records. In fact, they play for nearly identical teams. Here are the road records for the two teams:
 
Padres Scored  401 Allowed 364
Rockies Scored  382 Allowed 362
 
(Yes, that's right, the Rockies' pitchers have allowed fewer runs on the road than the vaunted Padres' staff. Pitching for the Rockies is a thankless task, indeed.)
 
The assumption that Adsrian contributes as much as Matt is certainly not dispelled when one drills down inside the road stats. Indeed, you might conclude that the teams have equally potent offenses, and Gonzales actually contributes somewhat more offensively to his team than Holiday. Adrian's road OPS is .893 with 17-56, compared to .860 11-55 for Matt. The difference between the two men is that Gonzales's home numbers make his annual contribution look somewhat anemic, while Holliday's home numbers make him seem like ... er ... Dante Bichette.
 
Of course I don't think Coors Field stats should be disregarded. I would not argue to base all judgment on road stats and ignore one's ability to capitalize on a home field. It's just that Coors numbers have to be measured in light of how many runs are needed to win at Coors. Holliday's talents are not worthless. Although Todd Helton actually has slightly better road numbers this year (868 OPS to 860), Holliday is now WAY better at capitalizing on the unique properties of Coors, and that does have real value to the team, just as Fred Lynn's amazing abilities at Fenway had real value to the Red Sox. Holliday has been more valuable to the team than Helton, despite Helton's advantage in road numbers.
 
And I don't mean to denigrate Holliday. Matt has batted .301 on the road with 11 homers, and that's a good hitter. You might even say a very good hitter. But not a guy who has done enough to be an MVP candidate.
 
---------------------------
 
As for Galarraga, there was no real surprise there. Like every major player who has left Coors, his road stats in his final year with Colorado provided an excellent predictor of his performance with his next team.
 
* Andres Gallaraga  hit .295 on the road with 20 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors, he hit .305 with 44 homers
* Vinny Castilla hit .269 on the road with 13 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first full season out of Coors, he hit. 260 with 25 homers.
* Dante Bichette hit .287 on the road with 14 road homers in his last year at Coors. In his first season out of Coors he hit .294 with 23 homers.
* Larry Walker played only 144 more games after he left Coors, batting .286 with 26 homers. That's a tough one to create a comp for because he was traded mid-season and injured the previous year, but his lifetime performance on the road per 162 games was .278 with 27 homers. That sounds like the exact same guy who showed up in St Louis.
 
-----------------------------
 
By the way, I don't mean to cast any indirect aspersions on Jake Peavy with what I wrote above. While most of the Padres staff appears to be more than merely competent only because of their home park, Peavy is just plain good. He's 10-1 2.16 on the road. Some of the other stats are crazy: David Wells has a 7.99 era on the road. Chris Young has 1.69 at home, 4.52 on the road. Trevor Hoffman: 1.80 at home, 3.68 on the road.)
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, September 30, 2007 12:16 AM
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

    It makes no sense to me to include park effects when considering players for awards.  Players should be evaluated based on what they actually accomplished for their teams, rather than what they might have done on a "level playing field".  If I understand Greg's argument, he is suggesting that Coors Field stats should be completely disregarded.  This makes about as much sense as Al Gore's contention that mere mortals can affect the weather.
 
    Park effects do have value in evaluating players but not for awards.  If another team wanted to trade for Holliday, they should certainly take his home-road stats into consideration.  I remember that many baseball analysts felt that the Atlanta Braves made a big mistake in 1998 when they signed Andres Galarraga after he had 5 big years in Colorado since it was felt he was largely a product of Coors Field.  All he did was to go .305-44-124 with a .595 slugging percentage in his first year in Atlanta.
 
    If I had an MVP vote, it would probably not be for Holliday but he would certainly be in the conversation.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@msn.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2007 11:36:29 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!

You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!

Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)

The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: 364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.



Reply | Forward | Messages in this Topic (26)
#594 From: billcgilbert@...
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:16 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		bgilbert35
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    It makes no sense to me to include park effects when considering players for awards.  Players should be evaluated based on what they actually accomplished for their teams, rather than what they might have done on a "level playing field".  If I understand Greg's argument, he is suggesting that Coors Field stats should be completely disregarded.  This makes about as much sense as Al Gore's contention that mere mortals can affect the weather.
 
    Park effects do have value in evaluating players but not for awards.  If another team wanted to trade for Holliday, they should certainly take his home-road stats into consideration.  I remember that many baseball analysts felt that the Atlanta Braves made a big mistake in 1998 when they signed Andres Galarraga after he had 5 big years in Colorado since it was felt he was largely a product of Coors Field.  All he did was to go .305-44-124 with a .595 slugging percentage in his first year in Atlanta.
 
    If I had an MVP vote, it would probably not be for Holliday but he would certainly be in the conversation.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@...>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, September 29, 2007 11:36:29 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!

You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!

Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)

The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: .364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.



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#593 From: "LeBritton, Joe" <joe_lebritton@...>
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:12 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		jlebritt
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I agree that Rockies hitters' stats are inflated by the Coors Field effect. By the same logic, shouldn't Rockies pitchers with good records get a "Coors Field premium"? Let's see how many Cy Young votes Jeff Francis gets.

Joe LeBritton



----- Original Message -----
From: hornsby@yahoogroups.com <hornsby@yahoogroups.com>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com <hornsby@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Sat Sep 29 22:04:52 2007
Subject: Re: [hornsby] Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they?

I've always agreed with opinions like yours. 

Michael Bass

Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@...> wrote:

                Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!
                You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!
                Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)
                The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: .364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.


________________________________

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#592 From: Michael Bass <maxmuscleaustin@...>
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:04 am
Subject: Re: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		maxmuscleaustin@...
Send Email Send Email
 
I've always agreed with opinions like yours. 
 
Michael Bass

Greg Wroblewski <unclescoopy@...> wrote:
Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!
You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!
Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)
The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: .364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.

Catch up on fall's hot new shows on Yahoo! TV. Watch previews, get listings, and more!

Reply | Forward | Messages in this Topic (26)
#591 From: "Greg Wroblewski" <unclescoopy@...>
Date: Sun Sep 30, 2007 4:36 am
Subject: Sigh. The fans never seem to catch on to this Coors thing, do they? 		billclintonus
Offline Offline
Send Email Send Email
 
Today the Rockies fans were cheering "MVP" for Matt Holliday. Matt has batted .301 with 11 homers on the road. Multiply his road number times two - 22 homers with a tepid .485 slugging average, .859 OPS. Not exactly MVP material. (He has batted .376 with 25 homers and 78 RBI at Coors!

You'd think we would learn from past mistakes. Back in 1995, Greg Maddux had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball. He was 19-2 with an ERA below 1.70, about 40% of the league average. No twenty game winner has ever earned a .900 winning percentage, and Maddux is the only 19 game winner to do so, and therefore earned that year the all-time record for most wins with a .900 winning percentage. He got fewer MVP votes than Dante Bichette, who hit 31 homers at Coors, 9 on the road!

Bichette had virtually the same splits that year as Holliday does this year. He hit .377 at Coors (Holliday .376) and .300 on the road (Holliday .301)

The mighty slugger Matt Holliday is 26th in the league in slugging average on the road, behind Ryan Church,  Chase Utley, Xavier Nady, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart, and Josh Willingham. It is especially interesting to compare Willingham and Holliday. Take away Coors, and they are the same player! Slugging averages: .487 and .485. OBP: .364 and .374. Home Runs: 11 apiece. RBI: 53 and 55. (Willingham listed first in each case.) Yet I don't hear a lot of fans chanting "MVP" when the mighty Willingham comes to the plate.


Reply | Forward | Messages in this Topic (26)
#590 From: "Gary McIntosh" <mcintosh@...>
Date: Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:25 pm
Subject: Re:The Old Cardboard eNews Issue #41 (September 2007) 		garymcut
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I am a collector and I subscribe to Old Cardboard.  Brett’s magazine is, in my opinion, the best in the business.  I look forward to every issue…full of great articles and outstanding pictures of the cards of yesteryear….very well researched and very well written

 

Gary D McIntosh CPA

 


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#589 From: Monte Cely <cely@...>
Date: Fri Sep 28, 2007 8:18 pm
Subject: Everyone's a Critic... 		celyloveboat
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Hornsby SABR chapter colleagues:  Article today in Dow Jones' Smart Money magazine... not much new, but interesting to see a financial mag weigh in on MLB's issues...
 
We hope you enjoy the material and can take a moment to visit the free website at www.smartmoney.com.
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SmartMoney is committed to protecting electronic privacy for users of its internet services. While SmartMoney hopes the article you received was forwarded by a friend, SmartMoney does not warrant the accuracy of the information's content or delivery and does not verify the sender's e-mail address.
To view this content directly on SmartMoney.com, click this link:
http://www.smartmoney.com/10things/index.cfm?story=october07
10 Things Major League Baseball Won't Tell You
By Barry Petchesky
September 28, 2007

1. "So much for the national pastime."

As of 1985, a quarter of Americans considered baseball their favorite sport. But with Nascar and soccer on the rise, that figure had dropped to 14% by 2006, according to a Harris Poll, or half as much as pro football. Over the same period, according to Nielsen Media Research, postseason TV viewership fell by half; the 10 worst-rated World Series have all been played in the past decade.
Baseball's problems are worsened by inconvenient game times, designed to snare prime-time ad dollars. Afternoon playoff games are a relic, night games on the West Coast don't begin until after 10 in the East, and World Series games routinely end after midnight. "It's not conducive to new fans," says sports writer Buster Olney, who has covered baseball for 18 years. "No kid could stay up that late."
An MLB spokesperson says the game is "quite healthy," pointing to increased attendance, Web site hits and fantasy-baseball interest. But Gary Gillette, co-chair of the Society for American Baseball Research's Business of Baseball Committee, disagrees. "The diehards will always be there for baseball," says Gillette. "But the casual fans have left in droves."

2. "Scalping tickets is illegal — unless, of course, we do it."

in 2002 Richard Kosterman was arrested and convicted under antiscalping laws after trying to sell an extra ticket to the Mariners' opening day. He challenged the ruling — not because he disputed the charges but because the team was doing the very same thing.
Since 2001 teams have partnered with online brokers, allowing ticket holders to sell their seats for whatever the market bears; the team gets the initial sale as well as a 25% cut of the profit from the resale. Not only are fans held hostage by this institutionalized price gouging (resale price, and not face value, is printed on the ticket), but any competition is eliminated. In August, MLB tapped StubHub to be its exclusive reseller in the estimated $10 billion market. "Baseball saw ticket resellers as a threat," says lawyer Kim Gordon, who represented Kosterman, "so they decided to get their cut and try to force the other guys out."
Challenges to the policy have generally failed on grounds that online sales fall outside municipal scalping laws. "It's completely legal," says Rebecca Hale, director of public information for the Mariners. "There's nothing left to be said."

3. "We're as American as apple pie — and job outsourcing."

A study by the Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport at the University of Central Florida showed the number of Hispanic players has doubled since 1990, up to 29.4% as of last season. Baseball has become "highly dependent" on Latin America, says Adrian Burgos Jr., author of "Playing America's Game: Baseball, Latinos and the Color Line."
Signing bonuses for Latino players are comparable — rarely more than five figures — to those of American players taken in the seventh round of the amateur draft, says Alan Klein, author of "Growing the Game: The Globalization of Major League Baseball." Compared with the routine seven figures given to top American players, it's no wonder several hundred are signed each year from the Dominican Republic alone. "Teams are looking for a competitive advantage," says Burgos, "sometimes at the expense of exploiting workers." (An MLB spokesperson declined to comment.)
Foreign-born players now account for almost half of minor league rosters — though 98% will never make the majors, says Jose Luis Villegas, author of "Away Games: The Life and Times of a Latin Ballplayer."

4. "We make it tough for you to watch your team play."

"Watch every game live!" trumpets MLB.TV, an online video-on-demand service that's designed to let fans keep up with their favorite teams even if they can't see them on TV. Tell that to Steve Buhr. The Cedar Rapids resident, like the rest of Iowa, is unable to watch games for six different teams that claim the state is in their broadcast range. To protect the teams' market share, the league blacks out local games on MLB.TV and Extra Innings, the cable and satellite package, though fans pay up to $200 for these services.
The culprit is an arcane map of "broadcast territories"; 30 years after it was drawn, though, games are shown on regional cable channels. An MLB spokesperson says the league is aware of complaints and is looking into the problem, but that's little consolation for folks like Buhr, who is a four-hour drive from any major league stadium. A fan of the blacked-out Minnesota Twins, Buhr canceled his MLB.TV in the spring and has resigned himself to watching highlights the next morning, since his cable company doesn't carry Twins games. "If you picture a wheel with spokes, the hub would be Cedar Rapids," he says. "It's not a good place to be a baseball fan."

5. "We still haven't cleaned up our act."

According to Major League Baseball, Mark McGwire's 1998 home-run-record chase netted it $1.5 billion in ticket, merchandise and ad sales — though there are now suspicions he was using steroids. Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams say in "Game of Shadows" that baseball knew for years that steroids were behind the new power-hitting face of the game, but it didn't take action because of the money. "They're seeing these players show up with all this new muscle, and they're not stupid," Williams says. "There's a willful looking the other way."
In the wake of the scandal, MLB has adopted drug testing, but its policy has holes: For example, a maximum of 5% of major leaguers are tested off-season. There's also the problem of designer drugs being created, for which no tests exist. And where the Olympics has spent almost $10 million trying to develop a reliable test for human growth hormone, baseball gave only one $500,000 grant, to Don Catlin of the Anti-Doping Research Institute. "It can be done," Catlin says, "but I'm not sure it can be done for the budget we have." (A spokesperson for Major League Baseball declined to comment.)

6. "The players aren't the only ones getting injured."

A Seattle Mariners game in 2000 would have been only the second one Dee Middleton-Taylor attended, but she never even made it to her seat. "I was thinking, this is a great day, and the next thing I know, I was hit," she recalls. She had been struck in the face by a ball in pregame warm-ups. It shattered bones in her face and lacerated her cornea, requiring multiple surgeries. "You don't expect anything like this to happen," she says.
Maybe you should. Injuries among fans struck by balls are more common than you might think, says Middleton-Taylor's lawyer, Brad Fulton. The team was compelled to turn over five years' worth of incident reports, and Fulton says the file was five inches thick. "Sometimes there are four or five or six a game," he says. "Way more than they want you to know." (Hale, speaking for the Mariners, says that five injuries in one game does happen but is unusual.)
King County's superior court ruled against Middleton-Taylor, holding that fans assume the risk when they enter a ballpark. "There are warnings on the ticket," says an MLB spokesperson, "and announcements made before the game. Fans should be aware."

7. "Our accounting defies the laws of nature..."

Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig told Congress in 2001 that the league showed a $232 million loss for the year, but only months later Forbes reported the figure as an operating profit of $75 million. Though baseball disputes the methodology, no one denies that the game's finances are as complex as they are secretive. Experts paint them as the antithesis of most accounting scandals: Team owners exaggerate their losses. "When they say they're breaking even, they're making money," Gillette says. "And when they say they're making a small profit, they've got a printing press in the basement."
Owners pay themselves and family members for executive positions (the Yankees' George Steinbrenner has variously employed two sons, two daughters and three sons-in-law), and, of course, the salaries are listed as expenses. Most significant is the revenue from concessions, parking and television, which aren't counted as profit even though the money goes straight into the team's coffers. As former MLB President Paul Beeston famously boasted when he was a Toronto Blue Jays executive, "I can turn a $4 million profit into a $2 million loss and get every national accounting firm to agree with me."

8. "...while you're the one picking up the slack."

Baseball's annual revenue tops $5 billion and is rising every year. So only by crying poverty can teams like the San Francisco Giants, who raised ticket prices 129% from 1995 to 2005, justify quadrupling the national inflation rate. The average cost for a family of four to see a game now tops $175, according to Team Marketing Report, a sports marketing publisher. "If fans think [teams are] making too much money," says Gillette, "they'll be less willing to pay rip-off prices for hot dogs and scorecards."
But where the public gets soaked the most is in the construction of new ballparks. Nineteen new stadiums have been built in the past 15 years, with six more on the way. And with only one exception, those new parks are largely or entirely funded with tax dollars. "They don't have to pay for the stadium, and they don't have to pay property taxes," says Neil deMause, author of "Field of Schemes: How the Great Stadium Swindle Turns Public Money Into Private Profit." "But they get to keep the gate receipts. Does that seem fair?" It's not chump change either; deMause says the new Yankee Stadium will cost $1.3 billion to build (though the team initially told the city it would run $800 million), with roughly half covered by local, state and federal tax money.

9. "We've got friends in high places."

With no equal in American culture, baseball enjoys a lot of special treatment. But perhaps none is more striking than the unique antitrust exemption it has held since it was granted by the Supreme Court in 1922. Calling it a "historical anomaly," Andrew Zimbalist, economist and author of "In the Best Interests of Baseball: The Revolutionary Reign of Bud Selig," says the ruling came down "partly because at that point in time interstate commerce had a different meaning, and partly because Oliver Wendell Holmes and William Howard Taft were big baseball fans."
A spokesperson for Major League Baseball calls the effects "negligible," but the ruling leaves the league with very few checks on its power. Minor league players are bound to their teams, team owners have major hurdles to jump to sue the league, and the league can decide where a team plays. Montreal Expos fans found this out the hard way, when MLB up and moved their team to Washington, D.C., after the 2004 season.

10. "The most valuable thing in a pack of baseball cards is the gum."

Collecting baseball cards sure isn't what it used to be. Over the past quarter-century, many fans have hung on to their childhood collections with the expectation that they'd be worth a lot of money one day. But in today's market, that's highly unlikely. Why? Because everyone else had the same idea. "It used to be, 'My mom threw out my baseball cards,'" says Tracy Hackler, associate publisher for Beckett, the industry's leading price guide. "Well, that's what created the market. Mom throwing out the collection made the ones that weren't thrown out worth something."
Not only have too many cards been saved, but too many are currently being produced. Topps had a virtual monopoly on the baseball card market until 1981, when a court ruling forced MLB to grant licenses to companies including Fleer, Donruss and Upper Deck, flooding the market. Now it's not the 10-year-old buying a pack for the gum inside who's going to get rich, but the serious collector who already has money to invest in rare cards. As Hackler warns, "Trading cards aren't for you if you look at them and see dollar signs and college educations and second homes."
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#588 From: billcgilbert@...
Date: Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:41 pm
Subject: The Old Cardboard eNews Issue #41 (September 2007) 		bgilbert35
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    Old Cardboard is operated by Lyman and Brett Hardeman in Austin.  Lyman was a SABR member who came to one of our meetings a couple of years ago.  I'm on his mailing list and some of you may be also.  Since I'm not a collector, this newsletter is of little value to me so I plan to unsubscribe.  Those who are interested can subscribe using the link below.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Forwarded Message ----
From: Old Cardboard eNews <eNews@...>
To: billcgilbert@...
Sent: Friday, September 28, 2007 1:12:44 PM
Subject: The Old Cardboard eNews Issue #41 (September 2007)


Your Information Resource for Vintage Baseball Cards
eNews Issue #41 (September 2007)      www.oldcardboard.com

Please Note: If images are not loading in this email, click here.

Welcome to Old Cardboard, the most complete reference resource for information about collecting vintage baseball cards and related memorabilia.  More information about this eNewsletter and its companion website and magazine are found at the bottom of this page.

Contents:
1. Updated Auction and Show Calendar
2. A Rare New Find: 1933 R306 Butter Cream Ruth
3. Latest Updates to the OldCardboard.com Website
4. T205 Gold Border Player Acquires New Identity
5. OC Magazine Issue #13 on Schedule for mid-October Delivery


1. Updated Auction and Show Calendar

The following is a summary of vintage card events coming up in the next 30-45 days. For the most current listings on additional vintage card shows and auctions, see the Show and Auction Calendar on the Old Cardboard website.


OC eNewsletter Sponsor

September 2007

28 Phone/Internet 19th Century Only Auction (see website for details).

October 2007

12-14 Reading, PA Philadelphia Sports Card & Memorabilia Show (see website for details).
17-18 Phone/Internet Huggins & Scott Auctions (see website for details).
24-25 Phone/Internet Mastro Classic Collector Auction (see website for details).
27 Phone/Internet Heritage Auctions (see website for details).

2. A Rare New Find: 1933 R306 Butter Cream Ruth

For many years, vintage collectors believed that the R306 set, issued in 1933 by Butter Cream Confectionery Co. of Union City, NY, contained only 29 cards. Then in 1989, two examples of a previously unknown Ruth card showed up at the National Sportscard Show held that year in Chicago. The Ruth card brought the checklist for the set to an even thirty cards.

Unfortunately, one of those two cards was later lost in a shipping mishap, leaving only one example of the Ruth card that remained in hobby hands. Until a recent disclosure of another R306 Ruth card by Robert Edward Auctions (REA), no additional examples of the card have ever been found. The newly discovered card is thus one of only two surviving examples in an already scarce set.

This most recent example, according to REA President Robert Lifson, was only recently made known to him and will be one of the highlights of REA¢s Spring 2008 auction. The visually appealing REA example is shown here. As seen, it has a Type 1 (Sept. 1st coupon) back--the only one known for a Ruth card. Both of the earlier examples are known to have Type 2 (Oct. 1 coupon) backs.

This most recently discovered Butter Cream Ruth card has been graded PSA-4 (VG-EX).

Additional information about the R306 Butter Cream set is can be found on the Old Cardboard website including examples of both back types, a detailed checklist and gallery of all thirty cards.

Note: Hobby auctions in the next few months will present an exceedingly rare opportunity for a collector-investor to own a complete set of all thirty cards from the R306 set. The REA auction next April will include the newly discovered Ruth card. Before then, however, a full "partial" set of the remaining 29 cards in the set (excluding Ruth) are being offered in a Lew Lipset auction set to close on November 1. Both auctions are expected to bring very active bidding and record prices. We wish our readers the best of luck in both.



OC eNewsletter Sponsor

3. Latest Updates to the OldCardboard.com Website

We are continually expanding the Old Cardboard website with more set profiles, checklists and set galleries. Recent (past 30-40 days) additions include:

Set Checklists have been added for:
1910   "Orange Borders"
1910   E125   American Caramel Die-Cuts
1933   R306   Butter Cream

Set Galleries have been added for:
1910   E125   American Caramel Die-Cuts
1933   R306   Butter Cream

We continue to update the website with checklists and full set galleries for additional vintage issues, so check in often to check out the latest additions. There are now many thousands of card images on the Old Cardboard website and the list continues to grow. We welcome and encourage feedback with checklist additions, card images, error corrections and suggestions. Please send all input to editor@....

4. T205 Gold Border Player Acquires New Identity

Mark Fimoff is not a vintage baseball card collector. He does, however, have a passion for Deadball Era photos. As a Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) photo ID expert, Fimoff has compared countless photos of Deadball Era players. In his pursuit, he has discovered an identity error long overlooked by collectors of the 1911 T205 "Gold Border" set.

As the result of some fine detective work, Fimoff has provided Old Cardboard with compelling evidence that the T205 card labeled as Wilbur Goode (example at right) is in fact not Wilbur. By the way, Wilbur spelled his last name Good--not Goode as printed on the card.

Further, through his research, Fimoff believes that he has positively identified the pictured player and developing a brief article that presents his findings. The article is now planned for publication in Issue #14 (Winter 2008) of Old Cardboard magazine.

Be sure to check out the article to find out the true name of the player pictured on the card and how, through Fimoff's detective work, the case of this 97-year identity theft was solved. Meanwhile, further information on the T205 set can be found on the "T205 Gold Borders" page of the Old Cardboard website.

5. OC Magazine Issue #13 on Schedule for mid-October Delivery

The content for Issue #13 (Fall 2007) of Old Cardboard magazine is now at the printer and scheduled for delivery by mid-October as promised. This Fall 2007 issue marks the beginning of our fourth year of publication. All issues to date have been produced in full-color and delivered on or ahead of schedule. We appreciate your continued support as we renew our commitment to bring you the most comprehensive information resource for vintage baseball cards and memorabilia.

The cover for this latest issue highlights our lead article by Joe Gonsowski, a second-time author for Old Cardboard magazine. Gonsowski's thorough research has not only uncovered a number of early photographs produced by Detroit's Tomlinson studios, he has located a newspaper clipping from the Detroit Free Press that pinpoints the exact date and time that the photo session took place. The photos from this session found their way onto several card sets familiar to vintage collectors, including the N172 Old Judge regular issue as well as the N173 Old Judge Cabinets, the N338-2 "Big League" issue of S. F. Hess tobacco, the Lorillard Tobacco Detroit team card, the Detroit team cards from two different sets produced by Kalamazoo Bats, and more.

The second article in the Fall 2007 issue, written by David Hornish, supplements the lead article from our last issue. This Part II of Hornish's two-part series focuses on the Topps Gum Company's inserts and other special issues from the 1950s. Together, the two-part series profiles all of Topps' sets (both mainstream and special issues) from the company's first decade of issuing baseball cards for promoting their gum products.

A third article by Jon Canfield (another second-time Old Cardboard author), focuses on the 1887 N184 set produced by W. S. Kimball tobacco company of Rochester, New York (which happens to be Canfield's home town). Highlights of Canfield's article include a set overview, a gallery of all 50 cards in the multisport set, career information about the four baseball "champions" in the set, background information about the company that produced the set, the company's founder, and a companion album for the set (designated "A42" in the American Card Catalog) that was offered as a mail-in premium.

Another brief article put together by the Old Cardboard staff showcases a panoramic photograph auctioned last year by Heritage Galleries of Dallas, Texas. The photo provides a unique view into the dead-ball era of baseball and records a game played August 30, 1908 between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Giants. The article narrative includes background perspective (all related to the content of the photograph) about the pennant race and World Series held that year.

The above feature articles are in addition to the magazine's regular "Editor's Notebook," "Collector's Dugout," and "Old Cardboard Crosswords" sections. Abstracts for each of the above articles, including thumbnail images of the full-color page layouts, can be viewed on the Old Cardboard website.

Lyman and Brett Hardeman
Old Cardboard, LLC.

Old Cardboard, LLC. was established in December, 2003, to help bring information on vintage baseball card collecting to the hobbyist.  Produced by collectors for collectors, this comprehensive resource consists of three components: (1) Old Cardboard Magazine, (2) a companion website at www.oldcardboard.com and (3) this eNewsletter. The Old Cardboard website contains more than 500 pages of descriptive reference information for baseball card sets produced fifty years ago or longer.  Each of these set summaries has a direct set-specific link to auctions and a similar link to 's powerful search engine for further research.  The website also includes a Show and Auction Calendar, an eBay Top 50 Vintage Sellers List, and much more.  As a result, the Old Cardboard website makes a great "Alt-tab" companion for vintage card shoppers and researchers.  Old Cardboard eNews provides current hobby news, upcoming shows and auctions, and updates to the website and the magazine.  It is published around the middle of each month.  For a FREE subscription to the eNewsletter, or for subscription information on Old Cardboard Magazine, please visit the website at www.oldcardboard.com.  If you find this information resource helpful, please tell your friends.  We need your support and your feedback. Thank you.

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#587 From: Michael Bass <maxmuscleaustin@...>
Date: Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:26 am
Subject: Observations/Questions 		maxmuscleaustin@...
Send Email Send Email
 
Unless Arizona wins all three of their remaining games and the Angels and Yankees fail to win one of their final three, every playoff-bound A.L. team will have a better record than that of their N.L. counterparts.  Does anyone know if this has ever happened to either league before?  If not, then when was the last time this happened in the pre-wild card days?
 
Also, if the Mets don't make the playoffs, this would have to go down as one of the most incredible collapses in baseball, ever.  The Mets could literally have collapsed twice down the final stretch of the season.  What makes this more amazing is that they are doing it against the worst teams in the league.  Would there be any precedent for this (short of the Phils though they did play some tough teams late in the '64 season - including the Cardinals)?
 
Michael
 

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#586 From: billcgilbert@...
Date: Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:30 am
Subject: More on Texas Baseball HOF Dinner 		bgilbert35
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----- Forwarded Message ----
From: "SABR.Notes@..." <SABR.Notes@...>
To: billcgilbert@...
Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2007 11:25:20 AM
Subject: [SABR Texas - Houston Chapter]

From: SABR Member Bob Dorrill mailto:Bdorrill@... {-- Click here to reply.
------------------------
HOUSTON AREA (LARRY DIERKER) SABR MEMBERS AND FRIENDS

As promised, following are the details for the 2007 Texas Baseball Hall of Fame Induction Banquet scheduled for Friday November 9, 2007 at the J. W. Marriott Houston, 5150 Westheimer (across from the Galleria) starting with a reception at 6 p.m. and dinner at 7 p.m.

Inductees include  Austin native outfielder/DH/manager Don Baylor, Astros outfielder Cesar Cedeno, Astros infielder/manager Phil Garner, Rangers outfielder Juan Gonzalez, Beaumont native and Hall of Famer Frank Robinson, pioneer sports journalist Anita Martini (deceased) and Negro star Willie Wells (deceased). Jimmy Wynn will present the Toy Cannon Award to Astros VP Marian Harper.

Fellow SABR member Greg Lucas will serve as master of ceremonies and there will be both silent and live auctions on a variety of memorabilia before and during the dinner.

Tickets are $75 each. As in he past I will be happy to coordinate reservations for SABR members wishing to attend the Induction Banquet and sit together as a group. Please send me a check made out to the Texas Baseball Hall of Fame for the number of tickets you desire along with a self addressed stamped envelope so I can mail you your tickets. My address is Bob Dorrill, 2318 Crimson Valley Ct., Kingwood, TX 77345-2101.  

Please mail your check so that I can receive it by October 12th. If you want to pay me at our meeting on October 9th, that will be fine too but please remember the postage paid envelope. Last year we had 24 SABR members and friends in attendance.

If you have any questions, please let me know.

Bob
------------------------
SABR Notes are being sent to you because you are a member of the Society for American Baseball Research. All members with an email address of record receive membership-wide announcements from the executive director. Members who are affiliated with local chapters or research committees will receive email from those groups as well. To modify your email address, committee memberships, or chapter affiliations, log into the MySABR section of the members-only site: http://members.sabr.org/members.cfm?a=mys

To contact the sender of this SABR Note email: mailto:Bdorrill@....


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#585 From: billcgilbert@...
Date: Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:27 am
Subject: Texax Baseball Hall of Fame Dinner 		bgilbert35
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Here is information on the Tecas Baseball Hall of Fame Dinner in Houston on November 9.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


 
Here is a link to the PDF versions of the banquet cover letter, order form, and inductee list:
 
You can also direct people to http://www.tbhof.org/banquet for details.
 
 
 
 
 

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#584 From: Jim Baker <jimbaker1066@...>
Date: Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:59 pm
Subject: Live Chat tonight on BP 		jimbaker1066
Online Now Online Now
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Hi all.
 
I'll be doing a live chat tonight on Baseball Prospectus at 5:00 PM Central Time. You do not need a subscription to participate. Even if you can't participate while it's taking place, I'd love it if you could submit some questions beforehand:
 
 
Thanks,
 
Jim Baker

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#583 From: gmartinez46@...
Date: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:05 am
Subject: Re: More milestones 		shisa46
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This is a very impressive feat. I think 200 hits means a lot of things
-- consistency, productivity and endurance.

That Ichiro is going for his eighth consecutive 200-hit season next
season says a lot. That's never been done in MLB history (modern era
anyway, since 1900).

And that Michael Young is hot on his tail says a lot about Young.

As most of you know, the theme to my meeting quiz a couple weeks ago was
200 hits. At the time, Young had somewhere about 180 hits, and so I
didn't think he was going to make it.

I'm glad to see I was wrong.

Gilbert

----- Original Message -----
From: Jan Larson <janlarson@...>
Date: Wednesday, September 26, 2007 9:10 pm
Subject: Re: [hornsby] More milestones
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com

> Correction - Young's streak is FIVE consecutive 200+ hit seasons.
>
>
> >
> > Michael Young collected three hits in the Rangers' 16-2 win over
> > the Angels.  Those hits gave Young 200 for the season and
> extended
> > his streak of consecutive 200+ hit seasons to six.  Ichiro
> > currently has seven consecutive 200+ hit seasons.
> >
> > Albert Pujols homered in the first inning against Milwaukee
> > extending his streak of .300/30/100 seasons to seven (from the
> > start of his career).
> >
> >
> > --
> > We've Got Your Name @ www.mail.com!!!
> > Get a FREE E-mail Account Today - Choose From 100+ Domains
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
>
> >
>
>
> --
> We've Got Your Name @ www.mail.com!!!
> Get a FREE E-mail Account Today - Choose From 100+ Domains
>
>

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#582 From: "Jan Larson" <janlarson@...>
Date: Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:10 am
Subject: Re: More milestones 		jan_a_larson
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Correction - Young's streak is FIVE consecutive 200+ hit seasons.


>
> Michael Young collected three hits in the Rangers' 16-2 win over
> the Angels.  Those hits gave Young 200 for the season and extended
> his streak of consecutive 200+ hit seasons to six.  Ichiro
> currently has seven consecutive 200+ hit seasons.
>
> Albert Pujols homered in the first inning against Milwaukee
> extending his streak of .300/30/100 seasons to seven (from the
> start of his career).
>
>
> --
> We've Got Your Name @ www.mail.com!!!
> Get a FREE E-mail Account Today - Choose From 100+ Domains
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

>


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#581 From: "Jan Larson" <janlarson@...>
Date: Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:22 am
Subject: More milestones 		jan_a_larson
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Michael Young collected three hits in the Rangers' 16-2 win over the Angels. 
Those hits gave Young 200 for the season and extended his streak of consecutive
200+ hit seasons to six.  Ichiro currently has seven consecutive 200+ hit
seasons.

Albert Pujols homered in the first inning against Milwaukee extending his streak
of .300/30/100 seasons to seven (from the start of his career).


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#580 From: billcgilbert@...
Date: Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:58 am
Subject: Fw: Proposal from Matt Dahlgren to all SABR members 		bgilbert35
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For info.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Forwarded Message ----
From: "mdahg@..." <mdahg@...>
To: bbrown8870@...; desrochsox@...; jhulbert@...; dlaurila@...; ebegley2@...; dittmarj@...; sammsw@...; jelinich@...; rfsmms@...; dsjac@...; bstevens@...; TPS@...; rrm19671975@...; LenLevin5@...; rhunt@...; CSacheli@...; sakrevisky@...; brak2.0@...; nrichards2@...; naplaj@...; John.Schleppi@...; jlannen@...; rhansen505@...; rjlesch_usa@...; timrask@...; danrl@...; crosley_field@...; GRhodes@...; bradcwp@...; RBuege@...; sdkrah@...; rpe@...; freas@...; tstrecker@...; caohrothgerber@...; cdcombs@...; bpkdvm@...; wjmars01@...; rejm@...; piratefan1@...; kdmccann27@...; JBall10621@...; taxidodger@...; dhasearl@...; crogers@...; Bdorrill@...; magnoliasabr@...; madcris@...; billcgilbert@...; derby@...; MELP69@...; john@...; webmaster@...; zyg626@...; bubba@...; wsimpson@...; sroney@...; btimmermann@...; GSuphan@...; mvogelsang@...; russons@...; rockies13@...; johnmoist@...; greg_king@...; Lar.11@...
Cc: Mdahg@...
Sent: Monday, September 24, 2007 6:18:55 PM
Subject: Proposal from Matt Dahlgren to all SABR members

Dear Chapter Heads: (East, Midwest, South, West)

In recent correspondence with John Zajc regarding a proposal I have offered to all SABR members he informed me of his intension to notify all chapter heads when he corresponds with them and allow the chapter heads to do with the proposal as they see fit.

As you will see in the attached proposal my offer is simple. For every book purchased from my website by a SABR member, I will return $2.00 per copy back to SABR.

Needless to say for this to benefit SABR the members will need to be notified - it is therefor the reason I am contacting you directly. Should you have any questions please let me know.

Sincerely,

Matt Dahlgren
Email and AIM finally together. You've gotta check out free AOL Mail!


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#579 From: "Jan Larson" <janlarson@...>
Date: Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:25 am
Subject: Re: Records 		jan_a_larson
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Bill -

> I believe Biggio passed Rickey Henderson tonight
> for 20th place.  He passed Carew a few days ago.

Oops!  You're right.  I saw those two names together and got them swapped.

>      I think Howard will be the founding member of the 200K club.

It seems unlikely that the Phillies will bench him given where they are in the
wild-card race.  Considering that he missed 18 games, he might have been a
position to put that record out of sight.


Jan


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#578 From: billcgilbert@...
Date: Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:10 am
Subject: Re: Records 		bgilbert35
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Jan-
 
    Good stuff.  I believe Biggio passed Rickey Henderson tonight for 20th place.  He passed Carew a few days ago.
 
    I think Howard will be the founding member of the 200K club.
 
Bill Gilbert
 
 


----- Original Message ----
From: Jan Larson <janlarson@...>
To: hornsby@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, September 25, 2007 9:42:50 PM
Subject: [hornsby] Records

Craig Biggio's sixth inning single against Cincinnati tonight was the 3056th hit of his career, moving him past Rod Carew into sole possession of 20th place all-time. Barring a barrage unlike any seen in sports history (55 hits in less than a week), he will remain in 20th place for the foreseeable future. Barry Bonds is currently in 31st place with 2935 and is second among active players. The active player with the best shot to challenge Biggio (and those above him) is Derek Jeter, currently in 117th place with 2347 hits (at age 33). Alex Rodriguez, at age 31, has 2243 hits.

Prince Fielder's 50th HR in the seventh inning against St. Louis was his second of the game and 50th of the season. Fielder becomes the youngest player to hit 50 HRs in a season (23) and he and his father, Cecil, become the first father-son combo to each hit 50 HRs in a season.

Ryan Howard did not strike out in the Phillies 10-6 loss to the Braves leaving him with 195 strikeouts on the season and tied with Adam Dunn for the single-season record.

The Mets' Sean Green singled in the fifth inning against the Nats for his 2000th career hit.

The Mets' Moises Alou extended his hitting streak to 29 games, the longest streak in the majors this season and the longest by a player 40 years or older since 1900.

Jan

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#577 From: "Jan Larson" <janlarson@...>
Date: Wed Sep 26, 2007 2:42 am
Subject: Records 		jan_a_larson
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Craig Biggio's sixth inning single against Cincinnati tonight was the 3056th hit
of his career, moving him past Rod Carew into sole possession of 20th place
all-time.  Barring a barrage unlike any seen in sports history (55 hits in less
than a week), he will remain in 20th place for the foreseeable future.  Barry
Bonds is currently in 31st place with 2935 and is second among active players. 
The active player with the best shot to challenge Biggio (and those above him)
is Derek Jeter, currently in 117th place with 2347 hits (at age 33).  Alex
Rodriguez, at age 31, has 2243 hits.

Prince Fielder's 50th HR in the seventh inning against St. Louis was his second
of the game and 50th of the season.  Fielder becomes the youngest player to hit
50 HRs in a season (23) and he and his father, Cecil, become the first
father-son combo to each hit 50 HRs in a season.

Ryan Howard did not strike out in the Phillies 10-6 loss to the Braves leaving
him with 195 strikeouts on the season and tied with Adam Dunn for the
single-season record.

The Mets' Sean Green singled in the fifth inning against the Nats for his 2000th
career hit.

The Mets' Moises Alou extended his hitting streak to 29 games, the longest
streak in the majors this season and the longest by a player 40 years or older
since 1900.


Jan


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#576 From: "Braves Rock" <br1135@...>
Date: Tue Sep 25, 2007 11:27 pm
Subject: tickets for Saturday's game 		bribriman10
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I've had some people cancel on me last minute and have 3 extra tickets
to the Astros/Braves game this Saturday. Gilbert Martinez and his wife
will be there along with myself and we'd love for others to join us.
If you want to see Biggio in his last homestand just email me back.

br1135@...

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