Hornsby Chapter SABR colleagues: 

 

The NL Cy Young Award is due to be announced Nov. 14.  The article (URL below) written by Tom Singer on MLB.com predicts that Trevor Hoffman of the Padres will take the award.  My research (which I hope to present at our tentative Winter meeting) into "Why do Relievers Win the Cy Young Award" indicates that the conditions may indeed be right for a reliever to win the 2006 Cy Young in the NL.

 

While I don't agree with all of Singer's points, I do think he's close to being on point by saying that Hoffman may get this year's NL CY as a "lifetime achievement" recognition.  My tentative conclusions from my research indicate that relievers may win the CY when one (or more) of three conditions exist that season:

1.  No starter on a contending team has a dominant season.

2.  A reliever achieves a "career" or "MLB Lifetime" record.

3.  External factors (strike, lock-out, etc) shorten the season and muddy the traditional "yardsticks" used to measure starting pitchers.

 

I think you can argue that #2 definitely applies to Hoffman (set all-time ML saves record) and #1 "sort of" applies (no NL pitcher was truly dominant for the entire season; and none won 20 games - although I doubt that any GM in his right mind would trade Carpenter or Oswalt for Hoffman even-up).

 

We'll see later this month.

 

Here's the URL to Singer's article:

 

Best regards, Monte

 

Monte Cely

(512) 310-9777