Hornsby Chapter SABR colleagues:

 

The completion of the regular season has probably cleared up any remaining doubt about the Cy Young race in the American League, but further muddied the picture in the National League.

 

In our voting, our chapter's prognosticators gave a clear nod (6 of 6) to Johan Santana to pick up the AL CY.  The Twins' late run to seize the AL Central crown, plus Santana's MLB leading 19 wins should make him a shoo-in (not to mention his leadership in other statistical categories).

 

While our voters gave Chris Carpenter the nod in the NL (4 of 6 picked him to win), the Cards' September problems, plus two ineffective starts late by Carpenter, have probably thrown the NL race wide open.  From my research so far on "when do relievers win the Cy Young", the conditions could exist for a reliever to win in the NL this year.  Those conditions seem to be:  a) no starter for a contending team has a dominant season and/or b) a reliever sets a significant milestone.  This could lead to Trevor Hoffman winning, or Wagner or maybe even Saito.  Carpenter, Webb, and Oswalt all may draw significant votes, although Carpenter is the only one of those three that pitched on a division winner.

 

The BBWAA voters will let us know in due time.  In the meantime, any comments or debate???

 

Monte Cely