I wrote this exclusive Dallas Cowboy 2005 Season Preview myself about
Week 2 of the Preseason. I've updated it; where I've added stuff
since the original version, I put it in parenthses and
wrote 'Addition:'

I'm a Texan that's been following football, especially Cowboy's
football, since 1980, and I've been closely following the drafts and
the pre-season magazines since around 1990.

This year, many of the NFL Pre-season magazines have been unkind to
the Cowboys. Many of the sportswriters have presumed that the 10-6
of two years back was the fluke, and the 'boy's 6-10 record of last
year was over-achieving.

The highest prediction I can find is in Pro Football Weekly's pre-
season magazine, which states they expect the Cowboys to finish no
better than second in the NFC East with a 7-9 record and missing the
playoffs.

Many commentators also state that Dallas has a really tough schedule
this year, so breaking even at 8-8 would be too optimistic.

Really? Are they sure about that?

Let's look at the complete 2005 Dallas Cowboy schedule:

at San Diego
Washington at home
at San Francisco
at Oakland
Philadelphia at home
N. Y. Giants at home
at Seattle
Arizona at home
bye week
at Philadelphia
Detroit at home
Denver at home
at N.Y. Giants
Kansas City at home
at Washington
at Carolina
St. Louis at home

How many of those teams last year finished at or below .500? NINE.

San Francisco (2-14) Arizona (6-10), St. Louis (8-8), Washington (6-
10), N.Y. Giants (6-10), Oakland (5-10), Detroit (6-10), Carolina (7-
9) Kansas City (7-10)

And remember, the Cowboys play the Giants and the Redskins twice each.

How many teams on Dallas' schedule this year finished with a winning
record last year, but Dallas beat them?

Seattle (9-7)

How many games against teams with below .500 records do the Cowboys
play at home? Four of them: Redskins, Giants, Lions, and Cardinals.

If Dallas LOSES EVERY SINGLE GAME IT PLAYS AGAINST A PLAYOFF TEAM
FROM LAST YEAR, it would still finish 10-6.

San Diego, Philadelphia (twice), Seattle, St. Louis, Denver.

Even if you posit Dallas losing two games it should win, (let's say
Arizona and Washington)it's also true they will win one or two games
in upsets, perhaps over Philadelphia or San Diego.

I see the Cowboys finishing at no worse than 9-7 this year. With
luck and avoiding injuries, if everything comes together, (and T.O.
continues to make waves in Philly, heh heh) 11 - 5 at best.

Defensive breakdowns, especially in the secondary,did the Cowboys in
time and time again last year. Lack of a pass rush combined with
dissarray in the secondary cost the 'Boys at least 5 games.

The distinct lack of a running game for most of the year also hurt,
until rookie back Julius Jones took to the field again after missing
over half the season.

Inconsistency at Quarterback also hurt the Cowboys in their losses,
especially down the stretch in the last 4 games, when Vinny
Testaverde threw some very ill-advised passes.

All of these problems have been addressed by one of the most savy
coaches in the game.

Will the Cowboys have a pass rush this year? Well, Bill Parcells is
determined the answer to that question will be a definate 'Yes' by
drafting two big DE's and a LB in the first four rounds of the
draft. DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, and Kevin Burnett are just too
darn good to sit them down on the bench all year; look for Parcells
to play Ware at OLB, along with Burnett, while Spears lines up as a
pass-rushing end on the edge. And don't forget that La'Roi Glover
and Greg Ellis haven't gone anywhere. When Dallas is in a 4-3
alignment, they'll get their playing time.

(Addition: Chris Canty came along faster than expected and has
already played in the second half of some of the regular season
games. Ratliff, another DLineman taken in a later round, also made
the team. As a matter of fact, all the rookies made the team!)

With a pass rush, some of the pressure should be taken off that
secondary, and the interceptions will go up. Terrence Newman had his
confidence shaken after being flagged early and often last year as he
adjusted to the new rules. This year the secondary won't have to
cover for as long if the front seven get that upfield push that
Parcells is looking for.

(Addition - so far that prediction about the interceptions has been
right on the money. While the Dallas secondary has struggled with
giving up the big pass play the first 3 games of the year, they have
also intercepted at least one pass in every single game this year,
preseason included)

Will the Cowboys have a more consistent running attack this year?
Almost certainly. If Jones gets hurt again, Anthony Thomas, Eric
Bickerstaff and rookie Marion Barber III are ready to step in.
Rashard Lee and Eddie George could not get it done, and so both are
gone.

I've watched Barber III in 4 games at Minnesota and he's the same
type of back as Julius Jones: great burst into the hole, and amazing
cutback skills. Anthony Thomas had some good seasons with the Bears,
and I've always thought the poor performance the last few seasons was
due to the atmosphere that developed there and a poor OLine. Keep
your eye on Barber. He's going to surprise people the same way Julius
Jones did last year.

(Addition: The Cowboy's running game has been only adequate in the
regular season. No back has rushed for more than 100 yards yet.
They seem to be sending Julius Jones between the tackles too much;
that's not his strength since he's not a straight ahead power runner)

That leaves Quarterback. Some people are down on Bledsoe, but I'm not
one of them. Parcells knows what Bledsoe's strengths are, and will
cater to them, instead of trying to make him a long ball QB like they
did in Buffallo. Bledsoe lost his job to Brady in N.E. after getting
hurt, then suffered from a lack of a running game in Buffallo the
last two seasons, until Willis McGahee came back from an injury. The
Bills finished strong and Bledsoe had a lot to do with that once the
running game kicked in because he didn't have to carry the whole
offense by himself anymore. In Dallas he will have a much better
OLine, plus a running game that is improving fast.

Also, remember that once upon a time, Bill Parcells brought out the
best in another big, slow QB with limited mobility by the name of
Phil Simms.

(Addition: After 3 weeks, Drew Bledsoe is the 3rd highest rated
passer in the NFL. He has also distributed the ball very well; in
two games I recall 7 different Cowboys caught more than 2 passes. He
threw two interceptions against the 49ers, but one of those was a
juggled pass that Keyshawn Johnson popped upward over the sideline.
The other one seemed to be a communication breakdown where a receiver
ran the wrong way or Bledsoe expected him to break towards the
sideline, because he threw the ball straight to a 49er defender, who
returned the interception for a TD. A 6 TD - 2 Int. isn't all that
bad; let's just hope that Bledsoe throws another 6 TD's before
throwing his next pick.)

Week by week breakdown:

Week 1: San Diego Chargers: This is a team on the way up, and they
hit their stride last year, turning things around from a 4-12 record
to go 12-4, win the AFC West and then suffered a first round exit at
the hands of the wild-card Jets. If Dallas wins this, it's a upset.
I don't think they do it on the road. Here's the Boy's first lost of
the year.

0-1.

(Addition: OK, the Boy's suprised me here by coming from behind to
win this game in the 4th quarter 28-24. A great win against a tough
team on the road.)

Week 2: Washington Redskins. This is a team in disarray. Joe
Gibb's inaugral season back at the helm in Washington was a
disaster. The QB situation is unsettled, the 80's style offense was
easily stopped by the defenses it faced, and the injury bug played
havoc with a very good defense. At home the 'Boys take the Skins.
Here's their first win of the year.

(Addition: The Cowboys surprised me again: not only did they lose
this game, they lost it after dominating the 'Skins defensively for 3
1/2 quarters, and then gave up 2 long TD bombs with less than 4
minutes to play. The offense sputtered and only managed 13 points.)

1-1.

Week 3: San Francisco 49ers. How bad did it get in S.F. under Dennis
Erickson? The Niners managed a total of 9 wins....in the last two
seasons; 7 in '04, 2 last year. They have a new coach, a new
quarterback, and a lot of work to do. No instant miracle here.
The 'Boys first road win of the year.

(Addition: Actually, new coach Nolan almost DID pull off a miracle
here - the Cowboys needed a 4th quarter comeback to steal a 34-31 win
on the road. Sheesh. Two road wins and the one home game so far is
a loss. Still, the 'Boys are 2-1 at this point, as I predicted, so I
can't complain.)

2-1.

Week 4: Oakland Raiders. Hey, the Raiders got Randy Moss! Instant
turnaround, right? Wrong. It'll take a lot more to revive this team
than having Kerry Collins throw bombs down the field to Moss. This
team won 5 games last year. No doubt they'll be better, but I don't
buy all the instant turnaround hoopla surrounding the Moss trade.
There are way too many holes on defense, as evinced by the Raiders
spending 5 of their seven draft picks on the defensive side of the
ball. The Raiders will score more TD's with Moss...but this defense
still can't stop anybody. The Cowboys win this one on the road.

(Addition: The Raiders are 0-3 going into this game and have totally
embarassed all preseason observers that picked them to win the AFC
West and even make it to the Super Bowl. Still, the Cowboys had
better not go to sleep or expect an easy game - this is a Raider team
playing for pride now that is simply DESPERATE for a win)

3-1.

Week 5: Philadelphia Eagles. This is the Cowboy's home game against
the Eagles and the best chance to steal a game from them this year.
Last year, after losing the first contest with Philly pulling away
easily in the second half, the 'Boy's fought the Eagles down to the
wire in the rematch, losing 7-12 when the Eagles were arguably a
better team than in the first game, and peaking towards the
playoffs. T.O. is making waves over his contract and trash-talking
at McNabb, who has so far had the class to brush aside the
controversy. Still, if Owens holds out and misses part or all of
training camp, the Eagles could be a team trying to overcome
dissension in the ranks when they come down to Texas. Here's where I
predict the first major upset of the year: The Boys win a close one.

(Addition: We're over a week away from this game, and it's already
shaping up to be a very intriguing matchup. Dallas has shown twice
that they can come from behind and win on the road, so this Dallas
team won't panic if they are behind in the second half at home. The
Eagle defense has been terrific; despite a Week 2 blowout of the
49ers, this Philly offense has struggled. That defense has helped
Philly win two close games. Against the Raiders last week the
offense again sputtered, and it came down to a last second FG attempt
by a kicker with a pulled hamstring. If Dallas looks much more
impressive against Oakland than the Eagles did, oddsmakers might
call this game even. This week the Eagles face a dangerous Chiefs
team that is coming off an embarassing loss to the Broncos on Monday
Night Football. I'm still predicting that Dallas wins this at home
in a close one)

4-1.

Week 6: New York Giants. Also at home, and also a team that
struggled mightily last year and is rebuilding. Dallas split their
games with the Giants last year, though the loss was the season's
final game with nothing on the line for either team. It's going to
be Eli Manning's first season as a full-time starter, so the Giants
will be looking for their D to win games for them. It won't be
enough. Dallas takes this game at home.

(Addition: In Week 3, the Chargers totally and completely exposed the
Giant secondary, toasting and roasting and flambeing them. That was
Drew Brees throwing to Antonio Gates and 2 adequate WR's. Drew
Bledsoe has Jason Witten, Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson, plus
emerging widout Patrick Crayton and Julius Jones, who has begun
demonstrating he can catch the ball out of the backfield. If the
Chargers could hang 40+ points on the Giants, what do you think
Cowboys are going to do?)

5-1.

Week 7: Seattle Seahawks. On the road, against a team that has
underperformed against expectations the last 2 seasons. I like some
of the moves the Seahawks have made in the off-season, and Dallas has
to lose a close one in the first half of the schedule, so I pick this
one. Dallas loses to Seattle.

5-2.

Week 8: Arizona Cardinals. This is a home game. And the Cardinals
are once again in transition. The QB shuffle continues, and they'll
make it interesting for awhile, but the Cowboys win this.

(Addition: Arizona has been one of the season's biggest
dissapointments. Kurt Warner was ineffective before pulling his
groin in week 3. The Cardinals are at present 0-3, and by the time
this game rolls around they could be 0-7, at best 2-5.)

6-2.

That's my call for the first half of the season. Now somebody could
go, "No way Dallas takes the Eagles. Ain't gonna happen." So let's
say Dallas loses that one. I simply take the Seattle game back and
call it for Dallas; after all, Dallas did beat them last year. It's a
close call. Either way, the first half of the schedule ends at 6-2.

The first half of the schedule doesn't worry me. It's the second half
where things get hairy. This is where the 'Boys will lose at least 3-
4 games.

Week 9: The Cowboys bye week as they get ready for a re-match with
the Eagles.

Week 10: The Philadelphia Eagles. On the road in Philly. Quick,
which team has Bill Parcells drafted and traded and signed FA's the
last two years with beating them in mind? The Eagles, of course. I
don't think Dallas can win both matchups with the Eagles this year,
so I posit a split with the Eagles taking this game in Philly in a
close one.

6-3.

Week 11: Detroit Lions. At home on Thanksgiving. The Lions are
getting better, and this is Harrington's make or break year. Dallas'
improved pass rush makes a big difference as they win this one.

7-3.

Week 12: Denver Broncos. Another home game. But the Broncos are a
dangerous team. One week hot, the next week cold. It mostly
depends on how Jake Plummer is playing. I say Dallas loses.

7-4.

Week 13: N. Y. Giants. This game is in New York, but by this time I
think Dallas is getting excited and gaining momemtum for a playoff
run. Dallas takes this one.

8-4.

Week 14: The Kansas City Chiefs. Hey, Priest Holmes can't get hurt
EVERY year. This year the Chiefs should help make the AFC West the
most competitive in football. With that offense, I don't think the
Cowboys can stay with them. The lose this to the Chiefs at home.

8-5.

Week 15: Washington Redskins. On the road, the 'Boys will have
something to prove, fighting for a playoff berth. Unless Joe Gibbs
pulls off a miracle in Year Two of his rebuilding plan, Dallas wins
this easy.

9-5.

Week 16: Carolina Panthers. This one is dangerous. Dallas could be
battling Philly neck and neck for the Divison title or at least
jockeying for a wild card spot. Like Dallas, the Panthers are a team
that was out of sync last year and finished much below what they were
capable of. On defense especially this team is much further along
than Dallas. That's why I'm going for the Panthers to win at home.

9-6.

Week 17: Saint Louis Rams. Dallas finishes the regular season at
home with a team that finished 8-8 last year but notice their last 3
games before their playoff loss to Atlanta: they beat the Eagles and
the Jets and then knocked Seattle out of the playoffs. Still, there
are a lot of holes on this team and the defense is still pourous. I
pick Dallas taking this as a must-win game for a play-off spot.

10-6.

There you have it: A winning record. Which, as I stated above, not
one pre-season magazine has predicted for Dallas so far this year.

I did call several close games against Dallas that many fans would
call for them to win, so I did try to be conservative in my picks.
Some people would say Dallas will take Seattle and Carolina. Could
be. Every team wins at least two it should lose and loses two it
should win.

I wrote this to encourage Dallas fans not to believe all the negative
predictions being given by all the 'experts' out there who are
picking Dallas to finish second in the NFC East with a record
under .500.

Remember: this 'tough' schedule has 9 teams on it that finished
below .500 last year, and Dallas plays two of those teams twice.

9-7 at the worst. 11-5 at the best. And the conservative pick: 10-
6.

You heard it here first.

manofaiki