Take a deep breath, tiger.

Please note that my question asked what the committee WILL do, not
what they SHOULD do.

If Stony Brook wins their conference tournament, they will be no
better than a 13 seed -- certainly one of the Top 5 one-bid
conference winners, but not an at-large by any stretch.

That said, the previous record for "best RPI left out of the
tournament" is, I think, aroud 30. Stony Brook is well on pace to
break that this year.

Now keep breathing.

I've been doing my own bracket projections for several years now,
and have gotten pretty good at it. I recognize that the Stony Brook
women are an anomaly. But they are such a dramatic anomaly that the
question should at least be asked. Put the name "Old Dominion"
or "Louisiana Tech" on those Seawolf jerseys and the question is
different, even though the numbers are virtually the same. Take
Hartford out of the America East and Stony Brook becomes virtually
indistinguishable from Indiana State, a virtual lock for the at-
large field regardless of their conference tournament results.

Still breathing, tiger? Good.

My guess is Stony Brook and Hartford are battling for one spot. If
Stony Brook gets it, they'll be a 13. If Hartford gets it, they
could be as high as 9 or 10, but more likely a 12. But with numbers
this weird, I just don't know.