A world--class 400—meter specialist does experience up to 1 second
drop-off in time over each 100 meters in a 400—meter race when
compared to their 100—meter times (up to 4 seconds total).
Asafa Powell is not a world—class 400—meter specialist. He seems to
be nearly purely a short dash runner who knows how to, but because of
the physiology, cannot come close to the "US—Triplets" in 200—meter
races. Therefore, it seems save to assume that he will experience a
drop—off in time greater than 4 seconds. Moreover, the race will
happen early in the season – in spite of that speed must be
established early in the season, he will be months away from his top
speed.
My guess would be that at present or at virtually any time, he can
race over 100 meters in a time close to 10 seconds flat (10.00); let
me make a wild guess: knowing that everything alive in the universe
does follow certain distribution (in case of men, from IQ scores to
ability to pole vault), and falls into different "drawers" (with
certain exceptions) rather neatly—you could risk saying that he can
run 10.20—second 100—meter race at any time, since the dashers from
the lower drawer seem to be nearly—incapable of breaking 10.20.
Summing up, 4_x _10.20 seconds + 4 + unknown = 40 + 0.80 + 4 +
unknown = 44.80 seconds + unknown;
What would be the unknown?
Let me guess: his 100 m PB is about 9.8 seconds and his 200 m PB is
about 19.9 – 0.3 second slower combined time of both 100's. There is
no difference in human PB's over 100 and 200 meters except for those
caused by training and physiology (the world record for 200 meters
is faster over each 100 meters than the world record for 100 meters –
the fastest man ever has been Michael Johnson). This means that 0.3
seconds must be at the very least added per 200 meters to his time.
44.8 seconds + 0.6 second = 45.4 second
Knowing that he may not be able to run like M.J. (the genius's
approach as I would call it: first 100 m—gain maximum speed by the
very end; second 100 m -- free—wheel and slow down as little as
possible `chilling'; third 100 m – regain the near maximum speed by
the middle of the turn; last 100 m start gliding as late as possible
and relax your body as well as keep your stride the same right into
the rigor mortis.) However, he is too aware and intelligent to run it
like a "butthead" (all out first 200 meters and a prayer over the
last 200 meters). I do believe that he will run the first 50 meters
fast, and that he will start sprinting with 350 meters left – he will
try to stay under his maximum speed for the next 50 meters, but
feeling that he is getting tired too quickly, and starting to feel
anxious, he will blast it out on the back straight; in turn, his
bravado will cost him dearly over the last 50 meters off the race. He
will end up walking over the finish line.
Final prediction: 46.0 to 47.0 seconds for the first one lap race.


--- In asafapowell@yahoogroups.com, "jamaicantrackfan"
<jamaicantrackfan@...> wrote:
>
> Powell to run one lap opener in Kingston
> Tuesday 16 January 2007
> Kingston, Jamaica - World 100m record holder Asafa Powell will open
> his 2007 season at a local track & field meet on 27 January.
>
> The track meet, named in the honour of Jamaica's 1988 Olympic 200m
> silver medallist, Grace Jackson, will be staged at the National
> Stadium east complex.
>
> Powell's coach Stephen Francis confirmed his athlete participation
at
> the local meet, but said "he will run the 400m. That's the way we
> normally start the season," Francis told AFP.
>
> Powell, who ran 12 wind legal sub-10 second times in 2006 and won a
> share of the IAAF Golden League Jackpot, will run two 400m races
this
> season.
>
> "He is going to run two 400m races this season, both locally. The
> second one will probably be at Gibson Relays, an international meet
> (February 24 th) at the National Stadium or G.C. Foster Classic, a
> local meet (March 10th)," added Francis.
>
> Anthony Foster for the IAAF
>