As the Padres face a big uphill battle in San Francisco this weekend, we look at some news items....

• Yu Darvish's likely posting fee could be around $25MM and the right-hander might look for a five-year deal from an MLB club, suggest sources of Matt Cerrone of Metsblog.com.  The Mets, Yankees, Rangers and Braves are listed as four of the eight teams who have shown an interest in Darvish, and we know the Rays have watched him pitch as well.  
• Pedro Feliciano's struggles against right-handed hitters will prevent the reliever from earning a big contract this winter, writes David Brown of Yahoo Sports.  The fact that Feliciano is a Type A free agent will also hurt his cause, since teams will shy away from losing a draft pick to sign a limited relief pitcher.
• Rafael Soriano, Cody Ross, David DeJesus and Francisco Rodriguez are among several free agents or trade candidates that Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic thinks the D'Backs might consider acquiring.
• Bob Gebhard, the Diamondbacks' vice-president and special assistant to the GM, will survive the expected front office changes in Arizona this winter, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
• Nightengale also tweets that Tim Wallach is "picking up plenty of steam" in regards to the Toronto manager's job.  The Rockies have granted hitting coach Don Baylor permission to interview for that same position, reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
• The Everett Daily Herald's Kirby Arnold lists several Mariners who might not be with the team next season, including Jose Lopez, David Aardsma and Casey Kotchman.
• Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Baseball America's Jim Callis that he hasn't been fired by L.A., and is "working for the team until...told otherwise" (both Twitter links).  Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tweeted about "rumors starting to swirl" that White and the Dodgers were parting ways earlier in the day.  White was one of several candidates interviewed for the Arizona general manager's job that eventually went to Kevin Towers.
• The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore lists five possible replacements for Adam Dunn if the Nationals don't re-sign the slugger.
• In a chat with fans on Thursday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News predicted that the Rangers would announce contract extensions for manager Ron Washington and GM Jon Daniels within a week of Texas' final playoff game.
• Trevor Hoffman hasn't decided if he will play next year yet, but if he does, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy predicts Hoffman will look for "a situation in which he at least has a chance to be the closer."

The Padres' late-season collapse has no doubt been tough to take for San Diego fans, but it could get even tougher when and if the Friars revert to their cost-effective ways.  San Diego's unexpected playoff push extended Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell's stays with the club, and while the Padres have no ready answer to replace Gonzalez at first base, their deep bullpen may lead to Bell's departure.

ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that San Diego "will at least consider" dealing Bell and installing Mike Adams as the closer going into 2011.  Bell agreed to a one-year, $4MM deal last winter to avoid arbitration, but Olney predicts that Bell could earn in the range of $6-$8MM next year, when he hits arbitration for the final time.  The Padres have the payroll space to pay Bell that much if they wanted to (as Cot's Baseball Contracts notes, the Friars have a measly $1.1MM committed to players for next season), but that type of outlay on a closer is a luxury that small-market teams usually can't afford.

Adams, meanwhile, made $1MM this season and is entering his second arbitration year.  After posting a 1.84 ERA, a 10.2 K/9 rate and a 3.78 K/BB ratio over his three years in San Diego, Adams is sure to earn a nice raise, but it will still fall below Bell's $4MM earnings from this season.  If the Pads were to offer Adams a two-year contract worth $5.5MM, Adams would probably accept to gain a bit of security in case he struggles finishing games.  MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith recently looked at how Adams' contract situation compared to that of Oakland's Michael Wuertz.

Bell is no stranger to the trade market.  His name popped up in multiple rumors when Joe Nathan was injured last spring and was even whispered to be on the block at the July trade deadline when San Diego was in first place.  If the Padres shop him around again this winter, the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Angels and Rays are a few of the clubs who could be looking for a proven closer.  The Braves and Cardinals could also be added to that list if Billy Wagner and Ryan Franklin both retire.

It's not exactly a ringing vote of confidence when a GM refers to the issue of his manager returning next season as "the million-dollar question" (Twitter link) but that's just how Pirates general manager Neal Huntington referred to the club's situation with manager John Russell.  Speaking with Jim Bowden of FOXSports.com, Huntington said that the club would evaluate their major league staff after the season and didn't seem to hint as to whether or not Russell would be back in 2011 (both Twitter links).

Both Huntington and Russell had their contracts extended last winter, though there were some rumors that Russell could be fired back in June.  Russell has a 185-296 record in three years as Pittsburgh's manager, and while it's hard to entirely blame Russell given the team's lack of talent, the fact that the Pirates has the league's worst record this season doesn't help his case.  Russell was Huntington's first hire as the team's manager back in November 2007.

Should Pittsburgh decide to go in a different direction, they will be the seventh club (after the Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Mariners and Marlins) looking for a new manager this winter.  This number could rise if Milwaukee declines to pick up Ken Macha's option, the Mets fire Jerry Manuel, Tony La Russa leaves St. Louis and Joe Girardi doesn't re-sign with the Yankees.  One potential managerial opening is all but officially closed with Dusty Baker on the verge of re-signing with the Reds.

Both the Cubs and White Sox are playing out the string on 2010, but long-time stars from both clubs could be on the move this winter.  Here's an update on a few of them...

• Paul Konerko talked to the media (including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune) on Thursday about his pending free agency.  Konerko was non-committal about the idea of taking a hometown discount to remain in Chicago and said the White Sox have to make some organizational upgrades to match the division-winning Twins.  He was open to the idea of being a full-time DH, though he still wants to play first base.
• Gonzales also notes that "there has been an assumption" that Konerko will go to the Angels to play for old colleague Mike Scioscia or to the Diamondbacks, as he lives in Arizona during the offseason.
• Another pending White Sox free agent, A.J. Pierzynski, is more open to a return, writes Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com.  Padilla thinks Pierzynski could be brought back on a one-year, $4.5MM contract to give Chicago more time to polish Tyler Flowers in the minors, but you'd think Pierzynski could find a multi-year deal elsewhere.
• Carlos Zambrano's red-hot second half (he's 7-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 10 post-All Star break starts) has been "the perfect showcase" to drum up a trade market for the right-hander, says CBSSports.com's Scott Miller.  As Miller points out, the Cubs' quest to deal Zambrano won't be easy given Zambrano's contract, but the team may be helped by the fact that the free agent starting market is short of ace-caliber pitchers aside from Cliff Lee.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein appeared on WEEI's Dale & Holley radio show on Thursday morning to recap and discuss Boston's 2010 season.  WEEI.com's Jerry Spar and ESPNBoston.com both have partial transcripts of the interview, and here are some of the hot stove highlights...

• In part due to the multitude of injuries that befell the club, Epstein admitted that the team's pitching and defense (the offseason focus on which led to the signings of John Lackey and Mike Cameron) were actually Boston's biggest weaknesses in 2010.
• The Red Sox will "have to completely fix the bullpen" in the winter.  Epstein said that he pursued several midseason trades for relievers: "We were aggressive with our prospect proposals, and those guys weren’t moved. So, yeah, I would have loved to have made a trade for a reliever. I feel bad, I feel like we didn’t get it done."
• In regards to three specific bullpen targets (Matt Capps, Brian Fuentes and Kerry Wood), Epstein said that Washington wanted Daniel Bard for Capps, the Twins were able to make a move for Fuentes first due to a higher waiver position, and the Yankees "were willing to take on just a little bit more of [Wood's] salary."
• Epstein admitted that the team can improve the flow of communication between the medical staff and the players.  He didn't comment on whether or not the Red Sox were looking to make some changes to their training staff in the wake of their injury-filled season.

Jim Thome needs 15 more plate appearances to reach 350 for the season, which would unlock an $0.1MM incentive bonus within the one-year, $1.5MM deal he signed with Minnesota in the offseason.  Thome has already hit two such plate appearance clauses, boosting his season total up to $1.7MM --- still a huge bargain for the Twins given Thome's team-leading 25 homers and .631 slugging percentage.

The future Hall-of-Famer said he might retire a champion if the Twins win the World Series, but in all likelihood, Thome will be back in 2011 to gun for the 600-homer club.  (Thome enters Thursday's action with 589 career long balls.)  With so many teams looking for offense this winter, here's what interested clubs should be considering when looking at Thome.

The Pros

• Thome has a whopping 1.155 OPS against right-handed pitching.
• Though he'll easily command more than he did in 2010, Thome is still a bargain compared to pricier DH options on the market like Adam Dunn, David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez.
• He just missed out on Type B free agent status, so a team can sign Thome without draft pick compensation.
• Thome is universally regarded as one of the most well-liked and well-respected players in the game.  This intangible factor shouldn't be ignored when a general manager is deciding whom to bring into a clubhouse, especially in the case of a young team looking for a veteran presence.

The Cons

• Thome hasn't been anything but a DH or a pinch-hitter for the last three seasons.  His lack of a defensive position will limit his market to American League teams.
• The 40-year-old Thome has battled nagging thigh and back injuries this season and can't be counted on to play every day.
• Along those same lines, Thome's slash line against lefties this season (in 91 PA) is .238/.297/.476.  Thome will need to be paired with a right-handed hitting DH who can pick up the slack against southpaws.

The Verdict

It seems another one-year contract is in the cards for Thome, who probably wouldn't have it any other way given that he's toying with retirement.  Despite the fact that he's only suited for a platoon DH role, Thome will probably be able to get a deal worth as much as $5MM.  Such a total would still be a steal if Thome can replicate his 2010 campaign.

Which AL teams could take an interest in Thome?  Minnesota is the first choice; Thome has become a folk hero at Target Field due to his role in the Twins' AL Central title and the club already has interest in bringing him back.

Aside from the Twins, the Red Sox (if they don't pick up Ortiz's 2011 option), Tigers, Angels, Rays and White Sox could also give Thome a look.  Chicago pursuing Thome would be rather ironic, since it was the team's failure to pursue Thome last winter and subsequent lack of production from the DH role that was allegedly one of the factors in the Ozzie Guillen/Kenny Williams tension over the summer.  New York might also have an interest; if the Yankees stick to their plan of using the designated hitter spot to give Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada a break from playing the field, they could DH those two against lefties and sign Thome to start against righties. 

Baltimore, Oakland, Seattle and (if Adam Lind moves to first base) Toronto are teams who are looking for offense and might have an opening at DH.  If Thome is still looking for his first World Series title, however, he's more likely to sign with a contender.

5:09pm: Baker tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that the contract is a two-year extension.

11:29am: It’s not official yet, but Reds manager Dusty Baker will be back next season on a multi-year contract, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News. Baker told McCoy that the sides are close to a deal and a confidante of Baker’s said it’s a matter of “dotting I’s and crossing T’s” at this point. 

The deal, which will probably be for three seasons, could be announced within the week, but it’s more likely that we’ll hear an official announcement after the postseason. Baker led the Reds to an NL Central title this year in his third season as the team’s manager. Prior to joining the Reds, Baker managed the Cubs for four seasons and led the Giants to the 2002 World Series.

The Reds have been discussing a contract with Baker since offering him an extension in August. The 61-year-old earned over $10MM on his current three-year deal and it would be a surprise to see the Reds offer less for another three-year term.

Miguel Olivo never played a major league game for the A's, but he signed with Oakland as an amateur free agent 14 years ago today. Here are some afternoon links, including an update on Olivo...

• Steve Foster of Inside the Rockies breaks down some of Colorado's offseason decisions and says Olivo wants to stay in Denver next year.
• Brewers owner Mark Attanasio gave GM Doug Melvin a strong vote of confidence, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
• Mark Buehrle repeated to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that he'll consider retiring after the 2011 season.
• Rockies manager Jim Tracy told Troy E. Renck and Jim Armstrong of The Denver Post that he'd "absolutely" like to see Jeff Francis on next year's team. Colorado will likely decline its $7.5MM option for the lefty's services, but could re-sign him nonetheless.
• Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the Yankees are not going to offer Javier Vazquez arbitration this winter and predicts that the right-hander will sign a one-year deal with a base salary of $4MM or so.
• Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports explains why he considers Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston "a proud and often outspoken man who carried himself with dignity in a business that isn’t always fair."

The MLB Players Association officially announced what MLBTR reported earlier in the week: that MLB and its players have agreed to make significant changes to the offseason calendar. Teams now have five days of exclusive negotiating rights with departing free agents instead of 15 and the deadlines for tendering contracts and offering and accepting arbitration have also been moved up. The date changes, which MLBTR reported in detail this Monday, will apply to the next two offseasons (2010-11 and 2011-12).

The Players Association also announced the implementation of “stricter rules” (for the MLBPA, MLB, clubs, players and agents) to guard against collusion and “restrictions on the abilities of the clubs, players and agents to conduct their free agent negotiations through use of the media."

Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse hears that Arizona’s payroll will sit between $50-60MM next year. The Diamondbacks started the season with a $75MM payroll, but shed considerable salary with a flurry of midseason trades. They now have just shy of $20MM committed to the 2011 team (not including potential free agents or arbitration-eligible players). Here’s the latest on the Diamondbacks:

• Krasovic hears that the D’Backs considered offering Mark Reynolds to the A’s for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Vin Mazzaro before Kevin Towers took over as the team’s GM.
• The club also talked to the Tigers about exchanging Rick Porcello for Stephen Drew earlier in the summer, but Detroit wasn’t interested.
• Krasovic wouldn’t be surprised to see the Diamondbacks sell high on Kelly Johnson, who is heading into his final season of arbitration.

Agent Scott Boras has added another one of the offseason's most intriguing free agents to his client list. Rafael Soriano hired Boras to represent him, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.

As Boras recently pointed out to Jon Heyman of SI.com, Soriano is “one of the top closers in the game.” The 30-year-old leads the American League in saves (44) and has a 1.76 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 63 appearances. MLBTR's Luke Adams recently pointed out that Soriano has set himself up for a multi-year deal, possibly even a three-year contract.

Boras, who has negotiated massive free agent deals for the likes of Matt Holliday, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, recently added Jayson Werth to his list of clients. Soriano, Werth, Adrian Beltre and Carlos Pena highlight Boras' free agents this offseason.

The Rays' chances of re-signing Soriano seem slim, but they could obtain two picks in next year's draft if Soriano turns down arbitration and signs elsewhere. Soriano, a projected Type A free agent, could theoretically accept an arb offer, as he did a year ago, but that probably won't concern the Rays. Soriano seems unlikely to accept arbitration and the Rays could trade him if he does, just as Atlanta did last offseason.

Home field advantage in the Division Series and League Championship Series hasn't given teams the advantage you might expect, as ESPN.com's Buster Olney shows. But the Rays, Yankees and Twins presumably want home field advantage anyways and there's no question that the teams' respective owners would like the extra revenue. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:

• Some MLB executives expect the Red Sox and Angels to get into a bidding war over Carl Crawford this offseason. He’d be a good fit on either team, though Mike Cameron would likely become a bench player if the Red Sox signed Crawford or Jayson Werth.
• High-ranking executives wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rangers’ payroll rise to $90-100MM. The team opened the 2010 season with a $65MM payroll, so that would be a substantial increase.
• There seems to be a very good chance that Adam LaRoche and Mark Reynolds, who have combined  to strike out 375 times this season, will not be on the D’Backs in 2011. LaRoche will probably hit free agency this winter, but Reynolds has $13MM remaining on his contract and would have to be traded.

The Cardinals have a number of needs to address this offseason and GM John Mozeliak repeated to Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that ownership is prepared to boost the team’s payroll if necessary. The Cardinals will look to add starting pitching, relievers, catchers and other position players this offseason. Throw in Tony La Russa’s uncertain future and Albert Pujols’ looming free agency and Mozeliak has a busy winter ahead.

The Cardinals will need a fifth starter and they’ve already initiated discussions with Jake Westbrook, who has pitched well in St. Louis so far. Miklasz reports that the team will likely look to “spruce up” its left-handed relief, too.

The club will also look to add offense to complement Pujols and Matt Holliday. Mozeliak told Miklasz that he’d like to acquire "a couple of guys who can hit 15 to 20 homers." The front office also intends to add pop behind the plate and will likely look for a backup catcher who can contribute offensively.

The 82-76 Cardinals would also like improved middle infield defense and better baserunning. It's been a disappointing season for the Cardinals, but Mozeliak seems prepared to make a number of changes before the 2011 campaign begins.

Jake Westbrook and the Cardinals have mutual interest in working out a deal to keep the starter in St. Louis, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. GM John Mozeliak says the club “obviously has interest” in re-signing Westbrook and has reached out to the pitcher’s representatives. Discussions haven’t picked up yet, but Westbrook says he wouldn’t mind signing a deal before other teams have the chance to bid on him.

"I'm definitely going to be open-minded about pretty much everything," Westbrook said. "If they had interest, I've definitely enjoyed my time here. I've gotten to know the guys well. The organization is definitely one that everybody knows about, that I've certainly heard a lot about, and now, firsthand, I've gotten to see that everybody was right."

The Cardinals have experience locking up starters on the cusp of free agency; they signed Kyle Lohse to an extension two years ago this week and locked up Joel Pineiro in October of 2007. Lohse will figure into the team’s 2011 rotation if healthy, but the Cardinals could still use starting pitching depth. Westbrook won’t cost as much as Lohse did ($41MM), but as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained yesterday, he could be in line for a two-year deal worth $15MM or so.

Westbrook has put together 195 solid innings this year, posting a 4.38 ERA between Cleveland and St. Louis. In 11 starts since joining the Cards, the right-hander has pitched especially well, posting a 3.88 ERA.

The agent for Ted Lilly anticipates mutual interest between his client and the Dodgers, but suspects other teams might make better offers.

“I’m just not sure the Dodgers at this point are going to get to a range that will be very easy for us to achieve come December,” agent Larry O’Brien told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. “I’m pretty confident that there’s a minimum three-year deal out there for Ted.”

Lilly, who turns 35 in January, has pitched well for the Cubs and Dodgers this season. He has an overall ERA of 3.71 with 7.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 186.2 total innings. He and teammate Hiroki Kuroda will be among the more appealing free agent starters not named Cliff Lee.

As Rosenthal points out, Lilly currently projects as a Type A free agent, but not by much. It may not matter, since the Dodgers would have to offer arbitration to obtain compensation picks and that doesn’t seem likely given their recent history.

Friday night links, as Jered Weaver takes over the AL strikeout lead in Texas....

• The Blue Jays received permission to interview Ron Roenicke, the Angels' bench coach, for their managerial opening, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
• Buck Showalter says that potential free agents from other clubs have expressed interest in coming to Baltimore, tweets MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli.
• Jim Riggleman tells MASN's Ben Goessling that he's comfortable with the Nationals' starting pitching even if the club doesn't land a top starter this winter.
• Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post wonders if the Nationals could target Yu Darvish as that potential impact arm. There's no guarantee Darvish will be available this offseason, but the Nats have scouted the Japanese righty in person "at least nine times."
• The Rangers should sign Jon Daniels to a contract extension, according to Jean-Jacques Taylor of the Dallas Morning News.
• Bobby Jenks tells Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune that he's anticipating a "weird offseason" in Chicago.
• Jim Leyland knows that if the Tigers don't have a good year in 2011, he could be done in Detroit, as John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press writes.

In his latest appearance on WEEI's Big Show, Peter Gammons discussed the playoffs, the offseason, and, of course, the Red Sox. Here are the highlights:

• The Red Sox will likely pick up David Ortiz's 2011 option in part because they'd be afraid to see him playing for the Yankees or Rays if they let him go.
• Adrian Beltre was never comfortable in Seattle like he was in Los Angeles and is in Boston. Gammons thinks the third baseman could end up signing with the Tigers this winter and wonders if he'd be uncomfortable in Detroit's spacious home park.
• Although Adam Dunn insists he doesn't want to DH, he may end up having no other choice. The Nationals appear unlikely to re-sign Dunn because "they don’t know where to play him in the field," according to Gammons, who says the Yankees are a potential destination for the slugger.
• If they pursue either player, the Red Sox are more likely to go after Carl Crawford than Jayson Werth.
• Crawford signing with the Angels may not be as likely as people think, Gammons says, since owner Arte Moreno "isn’t always great with free agents."
• Daisuke Matsuzaka is a trade candidate this winter, and Gammons can envision Boston dealing him to the Mets for Carlos Beltran.

The Nationals are sending scouts to watch Brandon Webb pitch in instructional league games over the next week, reports Bill Ladson of MLB.com. According to Ladson, Webb would have interest in playing in Washington if the Diamondbacks don't re-sign him, in part because of his relationship with Nats GM Mike Rizzo.

Rizzo, the former director of scouting for the D'Backs, drafted Webb in the eighth round of the 2000 draft. The right-hander has spent his entire career in Arizona's organization, but hasn't pitched in a big league game since Opening Day 2009 because of shoulder issues. Webb faced hitters for the first time in nearly two years earlier this week; though he reportedly topped out around 81 mph, the 31-year-old said his arm felt good.

Despite his lengthy layoff from the majors, Webb will be seeking a significant base salary this offseason, as agent Jonathan Maurer told MLBTR in August. The former Cy Young winner and his agent will be using contracts like those signed by Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, and Rich Harden as "conversation starters."

We know the Nationals will be targeting a front-line starting pitcher over the winter, and prior to 2009, Webb would have fit the bill. It's possible he could return to that form, but as we saw with Sheets, Penny, and Harden this season, high-upside arms aren't always prudent investments. Nonetheless, as MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith pointed out, the Nats are a team that could have interest in an upside starter like Webb on a short-term contract, particularly while Stephen Strasburg recovers from Tommy John surgery.

Earlier in the week, we heard that if Trevor Hoffman plays in 2011, he'd likely look for a situation where he has a chance to close, meaning his time in Milwaukee could be nearing an end. Hoffman said as much to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel today, when asked about the possibility of the Brewers retaining him for next season.

"[John Axford] is their future," said Hoffman. "That’s just the way it is. It’s nothing bad, no ill feelings or anything. They have their future and it’s time for me to move on if I’m going to continue doing this at a certain capacity. If I’m going to continue playing, I don’t want to continue in this capacity. I’d like to see what’s out there, if there’s option to close somewhere."

The one-year contract that the 42-year-old signed with Milwaukee last October includes a $7MM mutual option ($750K buyout) for 2011. Even Hoffman knows that the Brewers won't exercise the option though, asking rhetorically: "Why would they pay $7 million for me to pitch in this role?"

After an extremely successful first year with the Brewers in 2009 (1.83 ERA, 37 saves), Hoffman struggled this season, losing the closer's job to Axford and recording a 5.89 ERA. However, most of the right-hander's disastrous outings came in the season's first two months; since June 3rd, he has posted a 2.67 ERA in 32 appearances. Those numbers could be enough for a team to take a flier on Hoffman next year, but even if he receives offers, the all-time saves leader doesn't know whether he'll be back.

"I might not get to that stage (of fielding offers)," Hoffman said. "I might make my decision before I ever get to that. It would have to be a fit like this. I don’t know how many fits are out there like this."

After the season, the Reds will face a decision on Bronson Arroyo that will essentially be worth at least $9MM. Arroyo's $11MM option could increase to $13MM based on innings pitched, but the right-hander tells Hal McCoy of the Daily Dayton News that he thinks the team will exercise the option rather than pay the $2MM buyout.

"They have to pick up my option, no matter what, even if they planned to trade me,” Arroyo said. “They have to pick it up. If they let me walk for free ($2 million), they’d be giving me a huge lottery ticket."

Arroyo hints that while he wouldn't expect to earn Derek Lowe money ($15MM annually) if he becomes a free agent, his numbers (215.2 IP, 3.88 ERA) are probably good enough that teams would be willing to match or exceed the price Cincinnati would have to pay to keep him. When MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at the possibility of Arroyo reaching free agency, he agreed, suggesting the 33-year-old could earn a contract worth $20MM over two years. Still, Arroyo doesn't sound like he expects to hit the open market, indicating that he'd prefer to remain in Cincinnati anyway.

"I’d like to be here for a few more years," said Arroyo. "We have a young club with the opportunity for success down the road and I’m comfortable in my surroundings and I enjoy the city. I’d like to be here for at least three more, but it all depends on what they want."

The Mets haven't won a championship since Frank Cashen and Davey Johnson led them to the top of the baseball world in 1986. Since then, they've cycled through five GMs and eight managers with mixed results. Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel, who are currently in charge of the team, won't be back in the same capacity next season. We don't know who will be running the Mets from here on, but it’s not too early to vote.

Will the Mets be better off under new leadership?

Click here to vote and here to view the results.

Links for Friday, before all eyes turn to Clayton Richard and Matt Cain...

• The D'Backs will likely bring interim manager Kirk Gibson back in 2011, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
• The D'Backs are close to an agreement with Jerry Dipoto that would keep the exec in Arizona as director of scouting and player development, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
• Astros GM Ed Wade told Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle that he can see Nelson Figueroa being the team's fifth starter in 2011. The 36-year-old goes to arbitration this winter, assuming the Astros offer a contract.
• Jonathan Papelbon would like to set the market for closer contracts when he hits free agency after next season, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Papelbon has his doubters after a tough season, but he says he's looking forward to a dominant 2011 campaign.
• Some MLB executives are convinced that the Royals will dangle Zack Greinke as trade bait this winter, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
• Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reminds us of some of Omar Minaya's best and worst moves, since it looks like the Mets may soon replace their GM.
• Free agent pitching prospect Barret Loux will start accepting offers today, according to Kendall Rogers of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter).

Three American League GMs told Jon Heyman of SI.com that they believe their team's stars deserve to win the MVP. Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton and Robinson Cano all have strong cases for the award, but if Heyman had asked Theo Epstein or Alex Anthopoulos, there's a good chance he would have heard Adrian Beltre or Jose Bautista mentioned, too. Here are Heyman's latest rumors:

• The Rays hope to re-sign Carlos Pena this offseason, though it looks like Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano will sign elsewhere. Crawford recently told Yahoo’s Jeff Passan that he’s open to signing anywhere and indicated that he realizes he isn’t likely to return to Tampa Bay.
• Jose Reyes would like to sign long-term in New York. It looks like he’ll be negotiating his deal with a new general manager; Heyman reported earlier today that Omar Minaya will not be the Mets GM for long.
• Speaking of GMs, Heyman adds Blue Jays exec Tony LaCava to his list of potential GM candidates. Heyman reports that the Blue Jays have about 14-15 managerial candidates, including Bob Melvin, Don Baylor, Yankees coach Rob Thomson and Brian Butterfield.

If the Tigers sweep their double-header against the Orioles today, their first round pick in the 2011 draft won't be protected. In fact, if the Tigers win any two of their four remaining games, they'll have 82 wins, more than the A's, Dodgers, Angels or Marlins could possibly end up with. As our reverse standings page shows, those clubs are now 78-81, so none of them will finish better than 81-81.

Teams in the lower half of the standings have protected first round picks in the following year's draft, but teams in the top half of the standings do not. If the Tigers win two more games and sign a Type A free agent who turned down arbitration, they would lose their top pick in the 2011 draft. Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and Adrian Beltre are among the projected Type A free agents who may end up on the Tigers' offseason shopping list.

Last year, the Tigers lost their first rounder to the Astros for signing Jose Valverde, but they still ended up drafting highly-regarded players including Nick Castellanos, Chance Ruffin and Drew Smyly. Amateur scouting director David Chadd may have another challenge ahead if GM Dave Dombrowski signs a Type A free agent or two.

The Phillies, Rays, Yankees, Twins, Giants, Braves, Rangers, Reds, Padres, Red Sox, White Sox, Rockies, Blue Jays and Cardinals will also have exposed first round picks this offseason, so the Tigers would be in good company.

GM Omar Minaya and manager Jerry Manuel will not return to the Mets organization in those roles next year, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. As expected, the Mets will decline Manuel's 2011 option and fire or re-assign Minaya, who is under contract through 2012.

Manuel, now in his third season as Mets manager, has managed the team to a 202-212 record. The Mets are 77-82 this year, headed for a second consecutive fourth place finish.

Minaya replaced Jim Duquette in 2004, soon after he resigned as the GM of the Montreal Expos. As Mets GM, Minaya signed Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez and Francisco Rodriguez to contracts that are now holding the team back. However, the GM locked David Wright and Jose Reyes up to affordable extensions, acquired Johan Santana and, more recently, found R.A. Dickey on the scrap heap. 

The New York Post reported that the Mets could have difficulty attracting top executives, but the team should have plenty of options to choose from. Heyman reports that the Mets may be considering White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn, former D'Backs GM Josh Byrnes and longtime A's GM Sandy Alderson. Here's a look at several other candidates to replace Minaya. 

On this date 15 years ago, the Yankees and Rockies became the first Wild Card teams in baseball history. Both were eliminated in the League Championship Series however, with the Mariners and Braves doing the honors. Nine Wild Card teams have reached the World Series since, with the Marlins (1997 & 2003), Angels (2002), and Red Sox (2004) taking home championships.

A few days before the 2010 postseason begins, let's look around the baseball blogosphere...

• 1 Blue Jays Way interviewed Mel Queen, Toronto's senior adviser of Player Development.
• Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness tries to find a taker for Jonathan Broxton.
• Pine Tar And Pocket Protectors attempts to determine if a Carlos Zambrano trade would be worth it for the Cubs.
• Royals Review wonders if Gregor Blanco is part of Kansas City's future.
• Red Sox Beacon looks at what Boston must do to fix its bullpen.
• Beyond The Box Score breaks down the performance of the Yankees' four $20MM a year players.
• The Sports Banter places odds on whether or not four clubs could acquire Albert Pujols.
• Cubs Pack tries to figure out who will hit leadoff on Chicago's north side next season.
• The Southpaw examines Jose Bautista's MVP case.

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here

Mark Reynolds can hit the ball out of the park, but he's a leading reason why the D'Backs are striking out so much. No MLB team has ever whiffed more times than the 2010 D'Backs and Reynolds, who leads the National League in Ks for the third consecutive season, is the main culprit. He's tied for fifth in the league with 32 homers, but that .198/.321/.434 line looks thin.

The simplest way for GM Kevin Towers to reduce Arizona's 2011 strikeout total would be to trade Reynolds. The third baseman is under contract for two more years and will earn $13MM or more before his deal expires. Reynolds has been a below average defender for the past four seasons (according to UZR) and he doesn't have much experience at any position but third base.

It would have been considerably easier to trade Reynolds a year ago, when he was coming off a 44 homer season and a more respectable batting average. If the D'Backs shop him this winter, they may have to wait for some of the teams in search of a third baseman to determine where they fit in the Adrian Beltre sweepstakes.

For example, it's hard to imagine the Red Sox and Angels trading for Reynolds before Beltre signs. The White Sox could also have interest, but Chicago has Dayan Viciedo and Mark Teahen, so a Reynolds acquisition seems unlikely. Toronto may non-tender Edwin Encarnacion, but the Blue Jays already have their share of all-or-nothing hitters, so Reynolds doesn't seem like a fit.

The Tigers (16th in MLB in homers) and Padres (22nd) could use power and could create room at third for Reynolds. The A's rank 29th in baseball in homers, will be looking for power this offseason and may non-tender Kevin Kouzmanoff, so they may be the best fit of all. Arizona thought about offering Reynolds to Oakland before Towers took over, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the sides spark up talks. 

Rockies manager Jim Tracy told Troy Renck of the Denver Post that the Rockies want to add an “impact bat” this offseason. According to Renck, Colorado has interest in Conor Jackson and will target Victor Martinez if the Red Sox don’t lock him up.

Jackson, a non-tender candidate, can play first base or left field; Martinez can catch and play first. The Rockies appear to want a right-handed complement to Todd Helton and Martinez, a switch hitter, would satisfy that requirement. But Colorado has Chris Iannetta under contract and a mutual option for Miguel Olivo's services, so the team isn't desperate for catching help.

Adding an outfielder is a priority for the Rockies, according to Renck. Seth Smith isn’t conisdered an everyday player because of his late summer struggles, so the Rockies will consider free agent outfielders and trades.

The Rockies already have two electrifying hitters: Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, but Tulo told Renck that he’d like to see some of the organization’s young players improve so the Rockies can reach the postseason in 2011.

Adrian Beltre has now batted 640 times this season, so the value of his 2011 player option doubled from $5MM to $10MM. But the third baseman will probably have the chance to earn considerably more than $10MM as a free agent this offseason, so the value of his player option doesn't matter a whole lot.

“It doesn’t mean anything to me,” Beltre told Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. “It’s a testament that I was able to stay healthy, and be in the lineup almost every day. But that’s it.”

Beltre, 31, already has 28 homers and a American League-best 49 doubles. He has combined his strong defensive play with a .321/.365/.553 batting line and seems primed for another big free agent payday. The Mariners signed Beltre to a five-year $64MM deal after the 2004 season.

A few links to check out as the Padres live to fight another day...

• The Marlins told interim manager Edwin Rodriguez that he will be evaluated after the season and there is no managerial commitment for 2011 yet, according to Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post (Twitter links).
• Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun says that the Orioles brain trust and new manager Buck Showalter have already had "extensive conversations" about the direction they want to go this offseason.
• ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes hears that Daisuke Matsuzaka would be willing to waive his no trade clause if it sent him to the West Coast. John Hickey of AOL Fanhouse says the Mariners might be willing to discuss a trade with the Sox, as long as the price is low (both Twitter links).
• The Phillies have asked their entire coaching staff to return for the 2011 season, writes MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. It's no sure thing they'll all return though; GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he's had at least one inquiry on a coach for a managerial opening.
• Josh Byrnes told Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links)that he'd be interested in returning to a GM role if the situation was right. Rosenthal didn't ask him about the Mets, as Omar Minaya is technically still their GM.
• Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes that Jeremy Guthrie has graduated to being a "go-to starter" and shouldn't be traded by the Orioles.
• Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh-Post Gazette says that Pirates team president Frank Coonelly and owner Bob Nutting will soon decide the fate of GM Neal Huntington and other baseball personnel, and that Huntington will have input into the future of manager John Russell if he's retained. Both are under contract through next season, but Huntington's job appears to be safer. The GM was non-committal when discussing Russell during an interview Thursday night. 
• Adrian Beltre has put himself into a real nice position heading into free agency, writes Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe. The third baseman said that he "will give everyone a chance" when it comes to listening to contract offers, but ultimately he will do what's best for him and his family. 
• Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider req'd) that he is not looking to trade Matt Kemp, but he will certainly listen to any offers that come his way. "But there's not going to be any shopping on our part," said Colletti. He expressed a similar sentiment about the team's other "core younger guys."
• Even though he is on his way out as Blue Jays manager, Cito Gaston told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that he feels the team will need some veteran relievers next season. Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg could all depart via free agency this winter.

This season hasn't gone according to plan for Chan Ho Park, who is currently with the Pirates after being designated for assignment by the Yankees, but he told MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch that he's leaning towards playing at least one more season. If he does return, he'd be willing to remain in Pittsburgh if there's mutual interest...

"It's a good team with a good future," Park said. "If I play for this team next year, a .500 or winning record is going to be a big goal for this team. I want to be a part of that and have that. We have so much talent here."

GM Neal Huntington left the door open for a reunion, but the two sides haven't talked about anything definitive yet. The club likes the way he has mentored the young pitchers on the staff.

Park indicated that a guaranteed contract would certainly tilt the scales towards a return. Money might not be of much importance though; not only has CHoP banked over $85M in his career, he's also married to the daughter of the 76th wealthiest man in Japan.

The 37-year-old righty has pitched to a 4.66 ERA in 63.2 innings this season, but he's been much better since moving to Pittsburgh: 28.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9. He picked up his 124th career win just last night, setting the record for the most ever by an Asian-born pitcher in MLB. 

Tim Wakefield confirmed to The Boston Globe's Amalie Benjamin that the 2011 season would be his last in the big leagues (Twitter link). The 44-year-old knuckleballer is under contract for just $2MM next year.

Wakefield has both started and relieved this season, pitching to a 5.20 ERA in 135 innings before today's start against the Yankees. The former Pirate has posted a 4.37 ERA during his 18-year career, and is poised to join the 200 win club next summer. He had been working on what amounted to a lifetime contract worth $4MM annually since 2006, but the two sides restructured the deal last offseason.

Ken Rosenthal's weekly Full Count video is up over at FOX Sports; here are your highlights:

• The Cubs would be taking a risk if they choose to wait for the Yankees' season to end to interview Joe Girardi for their managerial opening. Given that six to ten managerial openings may arise, other candidates such as Eric Wedge and Bob Melvin (who's interviewing today), as well as their internal candidates (Mike Quade and Ryne Sandberg) could find work elsewhere.
• Boston pitching coach John Farrell's contractual clause that prevents him from interviewing for managerial openings expires this offseason. Rosenthal says he's likely to interview with at least one club. He turned down a chance to interview with the Mariners years ago, but may be a fit once again.
• Seattle, meanwhile, is also looking at Ted Simmons, Joey Cora, and others. They ultimately may prefer someone with more experience than Farrell.
• Unsurprisingly, the Mets will hire a new GM before a new manager. Bobby Valentine could indeed return, but everyone involved would need to determine exactly what his responsibilities would be. Wally Backman could also be a candidate to manage the Mets, but his managerial experience comes in A-ball. If hired, the team would need to put a strong coaching staff in place around him.
• Valentine is still a candidate for the Marlins' managerial opening, as is interim manager Edwin Rodriguez, Jim Fregosi, Tim Wallach, Bo Porter, and Simmons. 
• There's still a chance that the Nationals could sign Adam Dunn to an extension, and the two sides will speak at least once more before the slugger hits the open market. At this point Dunn would require a deal at market value to return, which Rosenthal suggests could be four years, $60MM. As bad as his defense is, several metrics rate him better than Ryan Howard and Miguel Cabrera with the glove.

The Yankees acquired Javier Vazquez from the Braves last offseason to help solidify the back of their rotation, but he's proven to be of little help. It was the second time Vazquez was traded in as many offseasons, and the fifth time he was dealt in six years. Despite being in the show for 13 seasons now, he has never been a free agent, instead opting for security in the form of contract extensions. Let's look at Vazquez's stock as he prepares to hit the open market for the first time... 

The Good

• Vazquez has a reputation as one of the game's best workhorses, logging at least 198 innings (under 200 IP just once) and 32 starts every year from 2000 to 2009. His strikeout-to-unintentional walk ratio is an amazing 2,001-488 during that time (8.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9).
• He projects as a Type-B free agent, so whatever team signs him would not have to surrender a draft pick to do so. Regardless, the Yanks are unlikely to offer him arbitration anyway. 

• At 34-years-old, Vazquez is no spring chicken and all of those innings might finally be catching up to him. His average fastball velocity has dipped to just 88.7 mph this year, down from 91.1 last year and 91.7 the year before. It's gotten worse as the season has gone on as well.
• His performance this season ranks among the worst in his career. His 157.1 IP are his fewest since 1999, and his 5.32 ERA forced the Yankees to remove him from the rotation (and into long relief) earlier this month in favor of rookie starter Ivan Nova.
• Javy is also extremely homer prone, allowing 32 this season and no fewer than 20 in any single season of his career.
• Vazquez has always preferred to remain on the East Coast, close to his home and family in Puerto Rico, so West Coast clubs are likely out of luck.

Vazquez seemed like a lock for a multi-year deal coming into the season, but it's hard to imagine him getting more than one guaranteed year right now. He'll likely have to settle for a one-year "prove yourself" kind of contract and hope he improves his stock next season. That said, if an offseason of rest helps him regain his old form, Vazquez could end up being a potential bargain on a short-term, low-money deal.

Over the past few seasons, Joey Votto has built up a reputation as one of the National League's best hitters. This season, he's exploded for a .323/.423/.598 slash line with 37 home runs, carrying the Reds to the postseason for the first time in 15 years. He's a frontrunner for the NL MVP award, but according the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay, the Reds' superstar "doesn't know" if he's interested in signing a long-term deal.

The club has yet to approach Votto about an extension. And, while Votto may be uncertain for the time being about the prospect of a long-term deal, let's look at his situation a little more in-depth.

Votto will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and as Fay points out, an MVP trophy (or even a runner-up finish) certainly looks nice in arbitration hearings. Ryan Howard won his case and was awarded a $10MM salary following his MVP season, though he had a Rookie of the Year trophy to his name (Votto finished second in 2008) and gaudier HR and RBI totals. Fellow Canadian and 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau had more similar numbers in his MVP season and signed for $4.5MM in his first year of arbitration, following that MVP effort.

The second time around, Howard inked a three-year deal worth $54MM rather than going through arbitration again. Morneau, who had a down year in 2007, avoided arbitration and signed for $7.4MM in his second year before erasing that deal and agreeing to a six-year, $80MM contract prior to the 2008 season. Votto could fit somewhere between the two MVP first basemen in terms of both years and dollars. As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith pointed out in examining Votto's extension candidacy in late August, the next three years could cost the Reds in the neighborhood of $30MM one way or another.

Votto's tear has continued since then, however, and in his article, Fay suggests Votto will submit a $10MM figure in arbitration this offseason. If that ends up being the case, Votto's arbitration years could cost in the neighborhood of $35MM or more.

There's no way to accurately predict the value of a contract for Votto, but contracts of some of his peers suggest that signing for five years at $15MM-$16MM per season might be fair for both sides. That would all depend though, on Votto's decision between signing or going year-to-year and hitting free agency at age 30. If that's the route he chooses, he could be in line for a mammoth Mark Teixeira-type contract on the open market.

Adam Kilgore from the Washington Post provides us with some info on the Nationals as their season draws to a close this weekend:

• The quartet of Josh Willingham, Nyjer Morgan, Roger Bernadina, and Mike Morse have seen the majority of the outfield time this season, and Kilgore says it's likely that those four do the same in 2011. It would be tough for the Nationals to land a top outfielder like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth, and beyond that there's not many attractive free agent options. Personal speculation, but if they do choose to look for free agent offense in the outfield, they could try to buy low on Magglio Ordonez.
• Manager Jim Riggleman says that despite Justin Maxwell's offensive struggles this season, the soon to be 27-year-old is too talented to give up on. Riggleman thinks everything will click for Maxwell next season and hopes he'll be a part of the club. He says there's no "last chance" situation with Maxwell.
• GM Mike Rizzo also said they're committed to Nyjer Morgan in 2011. That may have been in question with some fans as a result of his behavior and multiple suspensions this season.
• The Nationals are known to be looking for front-line starting pitching, and have Japanese phenom Yu Darvish on their radar. Darvish wouldn't be cheap, but he'll likely be more affordable than the market's only proven Major League ace -- Cliff Lee. Kilgore says it would be "speculative" to gauge Washington's interest, but notes that their scouts have seen him pitch in person at least nine times and recommended him to the front office.

Yesterday we learned that the Mets would not retain GM Omar Minaya and manager Jerry Manuel beyond this season, unsurprising moves to say the least. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that Minaya was told of his fate yesterday, but he wonders if owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon are willing to hire someone that will be brutally honest in his assessments and give him autonomy.

Former Indians and Rangers GM John Hart has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Minaya, and he of course has an impressive track record of rebuilding teams from the ground up through the farm system. Former Met pitcher Jerry Dipoto has also been mentioned as a candidate after losing out on the Diamondbacks job. Sherman also says former Athletics GM Sandy Alderson and current Rays senior vice president of baseball operations Gerry Hunsicker are strong candidates.

Whoever the Mets hire will have their work cut out for them. Manuel and presumably his coaching staff will need to be replaced, and a team that has gone 148-174 over the last two seasons despite over $275MM in combined payroll will need an overhaul. Johan Santana will miss at least part of 2011 after shoulder surgery, and the contracts of Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, and Oliver Perez ($48MM in salary next year) could prove to be untradeable. Time to vote...

Who should the Mets hire as their next GM?

Click here to vote in the poll, and here to see the results.

As expected, there has been plenty of talk about change around the Diamondbacks since new GM Kevin Towers took over last week, and that figures to continue on into the offseason. Bob Nightengale of USA Today brings us up to speed with everything going on around the team, plus more. All of the links go to his Twitter feed...

• Arizona is planning to overhaul their scouting department, and they believe Jerry Dipoto will stay if he isn't offered the Mets GM job.
• Kirk Gibson is expected to sign a two-year extension to remain on as the D-Backs manager, but the rest of his coaching staff isn't safe. Nightengale says all but two unidentified coaches will be let go. 
• Nightengale lists the popular new managerial candidates for the winter: Dodgers Triple-A manager Tim Wallach, Padres bench coach Ted Simmons, Angels bench coach Ron Roenicke, Rays bench coach Dave Martinez, and Mets third base coach Chip Hale. As many as ten teams could be looking for new skippers this offseason.