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Hi Guys -
We've got 9 FREE selections for Sunday's card, including both of your
Conference Championship football picks, all backed by in-depth
analysis from many of the nation's premier handicappers at
www.BigGreenMachine.Net
Here's our Sunday line-up:
FOOTBALL FREE PICKS
New England-Indy (Side & Total)
Philadelphia-Carolina
COLLEGE BASKETBALL FREE PICKS
St. Johns-Villanova
U.Mass - Duquesne
Virginia-Florida State
SW Missouri St - Illinois St
NBA FREE PICKS
San Antonio-Boston
Miami-Denver
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Vic Monaco,
Managing Editor,
www.BigGreenMachine.Net
PRO FOOTBALL TECHNICAL TRENDS ANALYSIS
INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis' 38-31 win last week at Kansas City gave head coach Tony
Dungy his first playoff road win in five tries as his teams are now 4-
5 SU and 4-4-1 ATS in postseason action.
On the highway, Indy is 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS this season, including a
perfect 4-0 in both categories as a dog with outright upsets at
Kansas City, Tennessee, Miami and Tampa Bay. In the last three
seasons, the underdog in conference championship games is 5-1 ATS.
The red-hot Peyton Manning is 44-of-56 passing with eight touchdowns
and no interceptions (156.9 QB passer rating) in two playoff games
this year. He has also been sacked just once in the past two weeks.
However, the league's reigning co-MVP has had his troubles in his
nine games under center against New England. Indy is 2-7 SU and ATS
in this series with Manning at the helm. He has an 18-14 touchdown-to-
interception ratio in those games.
In their November 30 meeting at Indianapolis, New England built an
early three-touchdown lead and then stopped Indy on four downs near
the New England goal line in the game's final seconds to hold on for
a 38-31 win. Bill Belichick's club is on runs of 4-1 SU & ATS in the
series, and 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against playoff teams this year.
New England has won 13 straight games and is 13-2-1 ATS since being
blown out at Buffalo in its season opener. New England failed to
cover the 5 ½-point number in last week's 17-14 win over visiting
Tennessee, but teams that won but didn't cover in the second round of
the playoffs are on a 9-2 ATS run since 1987 in conference
championship game action.
New England has allowed just three touchdowns in its last six home
games, and just 36 points in its last seven at Gillette Stadium. New
England is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS at home this year, and quarterback Tom
Brady hasn't thrown a pick at home this season. New England has the
league's best home turnover ratio this season at plus-15.
New England operates with a running back by committee approach and
has had only one game with a 100-yard rusher this year. However, Indy
has allowed at least 125 yards rushing in 11 games this season after
KC's Priest Holmes ran for 176 last week.
In the last six years, home teams in conference championship games
are just 5-7 SU and 3-8-1 ATS.
Totals Tip: Indy has gone over in six of its last eight road games.
In the past two years, the last four conference championship games
have all sailed over.
CAROLINA AT PHILADELPHIA
The Cats are 5-1 SU and ATS as a puppy this year after their double-
overtime win last week at St. Louis as a 7-point dog. Carolina has
now won and covered three straight games after a six-game pointspread
slide.
Carolina is 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS on the highway this season and 3-3 SU
and ATS versus playoff teams. And when getting at least three points,
the Cats have gone 4-1 ATS this season, with the lone loss coming by
a one-point margin at Dallas on November 23. The following week, they
lost 25-16 to Philly as a 1 ½-point home chalk. Kicker John Kasey
missed three field goals (32, 38 and 49 yards) and an extra point.
Carolina also turned the ball over on downs at the Philadelphia 8.
The Cats had a 19-17 first down advantage and 336-to-283 total yard
edge versus the Birds, but were undone by turnovers and nine
penalties. In their Wild Card win over Dallas two weeks ago, Carolina
became the first team since Pittsburgh in 1976 to have no turnovers
or penalties in a playoff game.
Quarterback Jake Delhomme has tossed seven touchdown passes in the
last five games, and the Cats have averaged 29 points and 432 total
yards in their two playoff wins over St. Louis and Dallas. Running
back Stephen Davis is trying to recover from a quadriceps injury
while his backup, DeShaun Foster, had 95 yards rushing last week
against St. Louis.
Carolina has lost just two games by more than six points this season
and it ranked 10th in the league this year allowing just 18.7 points
per game. The Cats, second in the league with 52 sacks, will face a
Philadelphia offensive line that gave up eight sacks last week to
Green Bay.
After facing first-time playoff starting quarterbacks Marc Bulger and
Quincy Carter the past two weeks, the Cats will contend with playoff-
savvy Donovan McNabb today. Under McNabb, the Birds have lost in the
last two Conference Championship games, falling at St. Louis two
years ago, and at home versus Tampa Bay last season.
Philadelphia has battled through injuries all year and will again be
without injured running back-return specialist, Bryan Westbrook, who
had 17 touches in the first game against Carolina.
Philadelphia is on runs of 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS, but has failed to
cover in its last two home games, losing outright to San Francisco in
overtime in Week 15 of the regular season, and failing versus the
oddsmakers in last Sunday's overtime triumph against Green Bay.
After rallying for a 20-17 overtime win last week over Green Bay as a
5-point home chalk, the Birds are 5-3 SU & ATS the last three years
in the playoffs. Philadelphia is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS versus playoff
teams this season.
Under Reid, Philadelphia is 24-13 SU and 26-11 ATS versus teams with
a .500 record or better. After beginning the season 0-2 SU & ATS at
their newly opened Lincoln Financial Field, the Birfds are 6-1 SU and
4-3 ATS in their last seven home games.
Philadelphia, which allowed more than 162 yards per games rushing in
its final eight regular season games, again struggled last week as
Green Bay ran for 218 yards. But the Eagles rallied from 14-0 deficit
to post their first 14-point or more comeback win since 1995.
Philadelphia is 4-5 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite.
Since 1970, home teams are 37-27-2 against the spread in conference
championship games.
Home favorites of 3 ½ to 6 ½ points, such as Philly, are 9-10-2 in
conference championship tilts.
Totals Tip: Carolina has gone over the total in three straight and
seven of its last 10 games. The Eagles have gone over in five of
seven, including their November 30 game against Carolina in
Charlotte.
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