| Throwin' Elbows: Breaking down the playoff races |
| By Sean Deveney -
There you are, a hapless NBA-head sitting at your cubicle, trying to catch glimpses at the box score page in the newspaper without the boss noticing, subtly memorizing the standings page so that you can zone out during your next meeting and juggle the standings numbers in your head. It is a tough time of year to be both a 9-to-5 worker and a pro hoops fan because, well, how can they expect you to get any work done at a time like this? There are just six game days left in the NBA regular season, and not until late Wednesday night will we be absolutely certain of the first-round playoff matchups. For the uninitiated, the current standings jumble must look like a stocks page to an eight-year-old.
Have no fear, though, because I have spent the last week or so sifting through numbers, conversing with some of the top mathematicians the DeVry Institute has to offer and working my abacus until my knuckles were sore. What I have come up with is this: There are only a handful of numbers and dates that really matter, and you can ignore everything else. The first thing you need to know is the league's tiebreaker system, which goes like this: 1. Head-to-head record Knowing that, we can just about figure out the entire playoff picture, right here right now. Here are the key things to know: Important number, Part I: 34-14. That is the Spurs' conference record this year, and if you think the Mavericks have a chance to regain the top seed in the West, then 34-14 is the reason they can't. Dallas trails San Antonio by one game and faces the Spurs on the last day of the season. But all the Spurs have to do is win their next three games (they have won 10 in a row, mind you), and the season finale against Dallas won't matter. If the Spurs and Mavericks win their last three, San Antonio will be 61-20, and Dallas will be 60-21 heading into that last game. The Spurs have a 2-1 season-series advantage, so, if Dallas wins that finale, both teams will be 61-21, with a season-series split. But San Antonio's conference record is 34-14, and Dallas' is 31-17, which means the second tiebreaker goes to the Spurs. The West's top seed is virtually theirs, bumping Dallas to No. 3 (the Kings are a lock at No. 2). Important game, Part I: Lakers at Blazers, Sunday. Really, this is the only game that matters in the West the rest of the way. The Blazers are No. 4 right now, at 48-30. The Lakers and Timberwolves are tied at No. 5, with 48-31 records. The Lakers close with Denver and Golden State, and they'll win both. The Timberwolves close with the Clippers, Bulls and Grizzlies, and they should win all three. Portland has Memphis, Phoenix (at home) and the Clippers, and should win those games. That means the Timberwolves will be 51-31, and slated for the No. 5 seed no matter what. The important thing to know about the Blazers is that they are 1-3 against Minnesota this year, and 1-2 against the Lakers. If they lose to LA on Sunday, they will be (at best) 51-31 by year's end, but will lose the tiebreaker and have the No. 6 seed. In that scenario, the Lakers also will be 51-31, but they will have the conference-record tiebreaker on their side over the Timberwolves. The Lakers would be No. 4. Should the Blazers topple the Lakers, they probably will wind up with 52 wins and the No. 4 seed. Minnesota (51 wins) will stay at No. 5 and the Lakers will be No. 6 with 50 wins. Basically, the Timberwolves will be cheering like crazy for the Blazers on Sunday because it means a first-round date with Portland, instead of the Lakers. The Mavericks (who are No. 3) will be rooting like heck for the Lakers, so that they get the Blazers in the first round and not LA. So there you have the West playoffs, essentially reduced to one tiebreaker and one game of importance: 1. Spurs Now, let's peek at the East, shall we? Considering the top four teams in the East are within two games of each other, it probably looks as though Detroit, New Jersey, Philadelphia or Indiana could win the top spot in the East. Not so fast. Important number, Part II: 15.4. That is the number of rebounds per game Ben Wallace averaged this season for the Pistons, and with Wallace unlikely to play for the rest of the regular season, Detroit has an uphill climb. Three of the Pistons' last four are on the road, and they have a gimme home game against the Cavs. If they can win one of their road games, they can finish 2-2, which puts them 50-32 overall. New Jersey's next three games are against the Bulls, Raptors and Hornets, which should be three wins, before the closer in Indiana. That means the Nets should have 51 wins before the Pacers game, ensuring they finish ahead of Detroit and setting up a situation where the Pacers and Pistons are dueling for the Central Division title and the No. 2 spot. Important number, Part III: 3-1. The Pistons' misfortune does not mean the Nets will be handed the top seed in the East because the Sixers (currently 47-31) have won three of four against New Jersey (48-30) this season and hold the tiebreaker advantage. Should the Sixers sweep their final four games (and facing the Knicks, Hornets, Bulls and Wizards, they have a good chance to do so), New Jersey would have to sweep its last four to stay ahead. That lends a heap of importance to . . . Important game, Part II: New Jersey at Indiana. Not only could this game, on the season's last day, determine whether New Jersey or Philadelphia gets the top slot as Atlantic Division champ, it could determine whether Indiana or Detroit wins the Central and the automatic No. 2 seed. The second-place team in the Central gets the No. 4 spot and a very tough matchup against the Hornets. If Detroit really struggles without Wallace and goes 1-3 to close, the Pacers only need to go 3-1 the rest of the way. They play at home against the Magic, then on the road against the Bucks and Knicks, before the Nets finale. It is doubtful Indiana will win out, but going 2-1 heading into the New Jersey game is a good bet, and if the Pistons really flop, that gives the Pacers a chance. They have split their season series with Detroit but will own a better conference record than the Pistons, giving them the tiebreaker. That is all you really need to know about the East. There is a chance Boston could slide ahead of New Orleans to No. 5, but with two road games and some awful recent performances for the Celtics, that won't happen. The Celtics also could slide behind the Magic to No. 7, especially because Boston must play in Orlando Saturday. But the Magic have three road games ahead, so that is unlikely, too. The East shapes up this way: 1. New Jersey or Philadelphia See, isn't that simple? |
Al <albert_kempo@...> wrote:
where can i go to see who faces whom in the playoffs?
who are the mavs facing 1st?
thanks
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