Here is my take: Computer analysis has it right now that the Cubs
should win 87 games and be in the race for the WC.

We know that the roster is going to change even more, that is the
consequence of going to Spring Training.

We also know that players emerge and play well or play poorly.
Projecting what they will do one has to look at indicators:

FA years historically has a better impact on the performance than
not, barring injury.

Injuries happen and effect more than an individual has on a team's
overall performance.

On par the Cubs need to turn 11 games around from last year and win
90 games.

How much impact will Pierre and possibly Hairston in the 1-2 spot be
better than Patterson and Perez? How about Pierre's defense and
baserunning? If Hairston is indeed really healthy will he score 90-
100 runs?

How much impact will having Cedeno at SS in taking away opponent's
hits?

How much impact will having Murton in the Batting order over DuBois
and Hollandsworth?

How much impact will Eyre & Howry have over Hawkins and Remlinger?

Here are the uncertainities. starting pitching, period.

Zambrano's health due to the WBC. Does Prior really have an elbow
problem and why Hendry is stocking up with Miller & Sim'chi plus
taking the option on Rusch? Wood will not be ready till closer to
Memorial Day than April Fool's day. Has Maddux finally hit the wall
or does he have 200 innings left? Can Williams, Hill, Guzman
actually pitch in the SHOW?

Rusch is a 5 inning pitcher
Maddux is a 6 inning pitcher
Wood is only starting 20 games.
Miller is not ready until June 15-30
Guzman has a brittle record
Hill has a lack of command pattern
Williams has a focus history

So that means Zambrano and Prior have to carry the load?

So I am excited this year. To me their are basically two holes in
the Cubs roster as it stands right now.

Front and center is a bona fide #3 starter. Whether the farm system
emerges that person or a trade Cubs cannot go with both Rusch and
Maddux burdening the bullpen. I think Zito or Wells is the answer
but Zito the cost might be too high or not available at all.

Number two and more subtle is a RH bat for RF platoon. Jones would
kill RHP'ing but would be a burden with LHP'ing. Grissom is not the
answer but I think Mench is.

So finishing this thought I think the Cubs can get Mench with Walker
and Theriot going to Texas.

Getting Wells could possibly be trading Perez (where Boston needs a
SS badly) and possibly getting Graffanino in return. Cubs would have
to probably trade Rusch or Williams/Hill/Guzman mix and not the
worst.

Inserting Wells (a 42-year old) appears risky but in fact he is a
200 IP steady starting pitcher who could take the Cubs to July when
Wood and Miller would be healthy.

Trading Graffanio and Mench for Walker and Perez would make for a
big improvement on the Cubs bench. Graffanino would provide better
backup for Ramirez and for emergency purposes be there for SS and
2B. Mench would be a real 4th OF where the Cubs could carry Grissom
as the 5th OF to back up Pierre.

This roster would have the best chance winning 90plus games barring
significant injury to (Lee, Ramirez, Pierre)





--- In DiehardCubsFans@yahoogroups.com, Conj <conj98@...> wrote:
>
> I hope...
>
> --- Tom Imbordino <jazzfusion981@...> wrote:
>
> > Excellent post, RW.
> >
> > rw_nemanich <bobsue_nemanich@...> wrote:
> > Any of you can take a pessmist view of the upcoming '06
> > season, heck
> > history is on your side. But why then be a fan unless you
> > like suicide
> > watches.
> >
> > That said I will also point out that did anyone predict
> > or think that
> > Derrick Lee was going to jump from .278 and 30-33 HR's to
> > .335 and
> > 46-HR's?
> >
> > Or the previous year watching Ramirez go from a .250 and
> > 15 HR's to a
> > .318-.302 31-35-HR's type of hitter?
> >
> > Or did anyone of you know of or even predict that Murton
> > and/or Cedeno
> > would be minor league stars let alone ascend to THE SHOW
> > and maintain a
> > .300 plus (Murton .321 and Cedeno .300 respectively)
> > average?
> >
> > Or how many of you predicted that Barrett would emerge as
> > one of the
> > better offensive catchers going from .206 BA to
> > consecutive years of
> > .287 and .276 with 16 HR's each year?
> >
> > How many predicted the ascent and command of Zambrano
> > when he emerged in
> > '03 43-25 and averaging about a 3.00 ERA? How about the
> > emergence of
> > Wuertz and Ohman?
> >
> > So here is my optimist view of '06 and why.
> >
> > Pierre: A FA year with a team that is not distracted by
> > dismantling
> > Pierre not only returns to career numbers but exceed
> > them: BA-.330
> > (OBP-.382) and 60-SB on 80 attempts.
> >
> > Hairston: A FA year where he is finally healthy he earns
> > the starting 2B
> > job, 2.95-BA (.375-OBP) 25-SB on 36 attempts.
> >
> > Lee: He signs an extension and still produces BA-.329,
> > 44-HR's and
> > 120-RBI's
> >
> > Ramirez: Now a star he bats .309, 38-HR's and 125-RBI's
> >
> > Jones: He settles down into a regular platoon (with a
> > still unknown
> > OF'er acquired in the Walker/prospect trade), he tears up
> > RHP'ers
> > batting .318 hitting 16-HR's.
> >
> > Murton: He continues to simply hit, hit, hit batting .340
> > with .390-OBP
> > and stroking 14-HR's.
> >
> > Barrett: He continues to be a consistent hitter at .285
> > and 16-HR's
> >
> > Cedeno: He solidifies the SS and even though he bats 8th
> > he maintains a
> > .290-BA and .360-OBP
> >
> > Prior returns to form winning 20-9, Zambrano is 18-8 and
> > Maddux returns
> > to 15-12, while Wood remains healthy but only is 10-5.
> > There still is
> > one pitcher unknown who is 12-9. That is 75 wins and
> > Rusch is 5-5 or 80
> > wins and the bullpen is 18 wins. Dempster has 39 saves.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > to go directly to
> > group:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/DiehardCubsFans/
> >
> >
> >
> > ---------------------------------
> > YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS
> >
> >
> > Visit your group "DiehardCubsFans" on the web.
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > DiehardCubsFans-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo!
> > Terms of Service.
> >
> >
> > ---------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ---------------------------------
> > Relax. Yahoo! Mail virus scanning helps detect nasty
> > viruses!
> >
> > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> >
> >
>
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
> http://mail.yahoo.com
>