Feb. 26 update

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the third Schmolik 64 update for 2007. This is my 14th season
doing the Schmolik 64. I will be making updates periodically up to
Selection Sunday, March 11, 2007. My final bracket will be done after
the Big 10 championship on Selection Sunday.

I only choose up to the top 12 seeds in each regional until
Championship Week since the bottom four are usually reserved for
champions of "one-bid" conferences. Most of the teams that "lead"
those conferences now will not gain automatic bids because they fail
to win their conference tournament. Giving these teams a "seed" would
not be accurate, even if the teams do win their automatic berth since
their seed may change due to their position among the eventual teams
in those bottom seeds.

Records as of Feb. 25, 2007.

ST. LOUIS REGIONAL (Fri/Sun March 23-25)

At Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat March 15-17
1 Ohio State (26-3) vs 16
8 Notre Dame (22-6) vs 9 USC (21-8)

At Columbus, OH - Fri/Sun March 16-18
5 Vanderbilt (18-9) vs 12 Missouri State (20-9)
4 Maryland (22-7) vs 13

At Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat March 15-17
6 Boston College (19-9) vs 11 Villanova (18-9)
3 Memphis (24-3) vs 14

At Chicago, IL – Fri/Sun March 16-18
7 Air Force (22-6) vs 10 Arizona (18-9)
2 Kansas (25-4) vs 15

SAN ANTONIO REGIONAL (Thur/Sat March 22-24)

At New Orleans, LA – Fri/Sun March 16-18
1 Florida (25-4) vs 16
8 Marquette (21-8) vs 9 Illinois (21-9)

At Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun March 16-18
5 Nevada (25-2) vs 12 Winthrop (21-4)
4 Duke (22-7) vs 13

At Columbus, OH - Fri/Sun March 16-18
6 Michigan State (21-8) vs 11 Virginia Commonwealth (24-6)
3 Southern Illinois (24-5) vs 14

At New Orleans, LA – Fri/Sun March 16-18
7 Louisville (20-8) vs 10 Stanford (17-10)
2 Texas A&M (24-4) vs 15

EAST RUTHERFORD REGIONAL (Fri/Sun March 23-25)

At Winston Salem, NC - Thur/Sat March 15-17
1 North Carolina (24-5) vs 16
8 Butler (24-5) vs 9 Xavier (21-7)

At Sacramento, CA - Thur/Sat March 15-17
5 UNLV (22-6) vs 12 Syracuse (20-8)
4 Washington State (23-5) vs 13

At Buffalo, NY – Thur/Sat March 15-17
6 Texas (21-7) vs 11 Georgia Tech (18-10)
3 Pittsburgh (24-5) vs 14

At Chicago, IL - Fri/Sun March 16-18
7 Kentucky (19-9) vs 10 Oregon (22-7)
2 Wisconsin (26-4) vs 15

SAN JOSE REGIONAL (Thur/Sat March 22-24)

At Sacramento, CA - Thur/Sat March 15-17
1 UCLA (24-3) vs 16
8 Creighton (19-10) vs 9 Old Dominion (23-7)

At Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun March 16-18
5 Brigham Young (20-7) vs 12 Georgia (16-10)
4 Virginia (18-8) vs 13

At Winston Salem, NC - Thur/Sat March 15-17
6 Tennessee (18-9) vs 11 San Diego State (20-8)
3 Virginia Tech (19-8) vs 14

At Buffalo, NY – Thur/Sat March 15-17
7 Indiana (18-9) vs 10 Texas Tech (18-11)
2 Georgetown (22-5) vs 15

By Conference:

Big East – 7
ACC – 7
Pac 10 – 6
Big 10 – 5
SEC – 5
Big 12 - 4
MWC – 4
MVC – 3
Colonial - 2

Other - 5 (C-USA, WAC, A-10, Horizon, Big South)
Remaining Automatics - 17
Remaining At Large Bids – 0

Comments:

RPI data courtesy of ESPN.com's Bracketology Section.

In case you were wondering, I usually make new brackets from scratch.
I do not use the previous one and move teams up or down. A team that
moves down isn't necessarily intentionally dropped.

Only in the SEC does the top team in the conference lose to the worst
team in the conference (and without their star player). I almost
considered dropping them to a #2 seed and you can argue their loss is
worse than BOTH Wisconsin losses last week (not to mention their
Vanderbilt loss last Saturday, aka StormCourtGate). I originally had
Wisconsin ahead of Florida on Sunday, thinking the Ohio State game
would drive up Wisconsin's conference RPI. But it is still in the
teens (while Florida is still #4 even after losing to LSU). Florida
also has one more top 25 win and is one game better in their last 10,
so they stay ahead of Wisconsin this week. The polls are split with
the coaches favoring Florida and the writers favoring Wisconsin. One
team I do not favor is Kansas. Kansas's RPI is 15, way lower than
either of these teams or North Carolina. The Big 12 is way down this
year, and Kansas has yet to beat any of the other Big 12 teams
projected in this bracket. I'm sorry, but if Texas A&M came into your
gym and beat you, you're not the best team in your conference. I
would even rank Georgetown ahead of you now (more top 25 wins, more
top 50 wins, and a much higher conference RPI). I finally relented in
putting Kansas ahead of Memphis this week, which is also debatable.
Memphis has only one top 50 win, but is it really their fault their
conference is so bad?

Villanova's RPI is going to be a challenge for the Committee. Their
RPI is way ahead of four teams (Marquette, Syracuse, DePaul, and West
Virginia) that are all ahead of Villanova in the standings and all
beat the Wildcats (DePaul won at Villanova). It will be hard to leave
them out or leave one of the Big East teams that finish ahead of them
out (especially Syracuse if Syracuse beats them this week for the
season sweep). The scary thing is Villanova isn't a bad team.
Actually, their conference RPI (27) is ahead of Syracuse (41), DePaul
(34), and West Virginia (69) due to the unbalanced schedule. West
Virginia and DePaul were among the last teams I left out. The Big
East currently has six teams guaranteed of winning records. DePaul
will have a winning record if it can beat South Florida at home
(pretty likely). West Virginia will have a winning record it can beat
Cincinnati at home (also pretty likely). Villanova and Providence can
sweep their games for a 9-7 record. Someone with a winning record
from the Big East is likely to be left home. NCAA bids will clearly
be on the line in the Garden.

Over in the ACC, six bids are virtual locks. Georgia Tech has to be
considered ahead of Clemson right now if the ACC is to get a seventh
bid. They have two top 25 wins (Clemson has none). Also, Clemson is 2-
8 in their last 10. Florida State has four top 25 wins, but is 0-4
combined vs. Georgia Tech and Clemson. Even if Florida State beats
one of them in the ACC tournament, can you say Florida State is
better than either of them (unless Florida State upsets North
Carolina in the tournament)?

Does anyone want to win the SEC West? Will the SEC West champion have
above a .500 record? I'd love to see the SEC East go undefeated
against the West in the SEC tournament (South Carolina, last place in
the East, has beaten both Mississippi and Mississippi State, who lead
the SEC West).

Out west, I do not understand the polls. BYU leads the Mountain West,
yet UNLV and Air Force (who lost to TCU) are both ranked ahead of
them. San Diego State's win over BYU put them into this week's
projection. USC certainly recovered after last week's stunning loss
to Arizona State with a pair of wins, moving them back into sole
possession of third place. The Pac 10 looks to be the easiest major
conference to project. They will get exactly six bids unless
something really goes haywire.

The next update will not be until Tuesday night and will be the first
to list the entire bracket. I want to get as many conference
champions in the bracket before the Big East tournament begin on
Wednesday.

Schmolik
http://members.aol.com/schmolik