Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the first Schmolik 64 update for 2007. This is my 14th season
doing the Schmolik 64. I will be making updates periodically up to
Selection Sunday, March 11, 2007. My final bracket will be done after
the Big 10 championship on Selection Sunday.

I only choose up to the top 12 seeds in each regional until
Championship Week since the bottom four are usually reserved for
champions of "one-bid" conferences. Most of the teams that "lead"
those conferences now will not gain automatic bids because they fail
to win their conference tournament. Giving these teams a "seed" would
not be accurate, even if the teams do win their automatic berth since
their seed may change due to their position among the eventual teams
in those bottom seeds.

Records as of Feb. 11, 2007.

SAN ANTONIO REGIONAL (Thur/Sat March 22-24)

At New Orleans, LA – Fri/Sun March 16-18
1 Florida (23-2) vs 16
8 Virginia Commonwealth (21-5) vs 9 Maryland (18-7)

At Sacramento, CA - Thur/Sat March 15-17
5 Washington State (21-4) vs 12 Illinois (18-9)
4 Brigham Young (18-6) vs 13

At Buffalo, NY – Thur/Sat March 15-17
6 Virginia Tech (16-7) vs 11 Purdue (16-9)
3 Georgetown (18-5) vs 14

At New Orleans, LA – Fri/Sun March 16-18
7 Creighton (17-8) vs 10 Georgia (13-9)
2 Texas A&M (21-3) vs 15

SAN JOSE REGIONAL (Thur/Sat March 22-24)

At Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat March 15-17
1 Ohio State (22-3) vs 16
8 Villanova (16-7) vs 9 Florida State (17-8)

At Winston Salem, NC - Thur/Sat March 15-17
5 UNLV (20-5) vs 12 Gonzaga (18-8)
4 Kentucky (18-6) vs 13

At Chicago, IL – Fri/Sun March 16-18
6 Nevada (21-2) vs 11 Oklahoma State (18-5)
3 Marquette (20-5) vs 14

At Sacramento, CA - Thur/Sat March 15-17
7 Clemson (19-5) vs 10 Vanderbilt (15-8)
2 UCLA (20-3) vs 15

EAST RUTHERFORD REGIONAL (Fri/Sun March 23-25)

At Winston Salem, NC - Thur/Sat March 15-17
1 North Carolina (22-3) vs 16
8 Stanford (15-8) vs 9 Kansas State (18-7)

At Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun March 16-18
5 Air Force (20-4) vs 12 Providence (15-8)
4 Indiana (17-6) vs 13

At Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun March 16-18
6 Arizona (17-7) vs 11 Georgia Tech (16-8)
3 Southern Illinois (20-5) vs 14

At Columbus, OH - Fri/Sun March 16-18
7 Virginia (15-7) vs 10 Xavier (18-7)
2 Pittsburgh (22-3) vs 15

ST. LOUIS REGIONAL (Fri/Sun March 23-25)

At Chicago, IL - Fri/Sun March 16-18
1 Wisconsin (24-2) vs 16
8 Tennessee (17-8) vs 9 USC (18-7)

At Buffalo, NY – Thur/Sat March 15-17
5 Butler (22-3) vs 12 Texas (17-7)
4 Boston College (18-6) vs 13

At Columbus, OH - Fri/Sun March 16-18
6 West Virginia (18-5) vs 11 Missouri State (18-7)
3 Kansas (21-4) vs 14

At Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat March 15-17
7 Duke (18-7) vs 10 Oregon (20-5)
2 Memphis (21-3) vs 15

By Conference:

ACC – 9
Big East – 6
Pac 10 – 6
Big 10 – 5
Big 12 - 5
SEC – 5
MVC – 3
MWC – 3
Other - 6 (WAC, A-10, C-USA, Colonial, Horizon, WCC)
Remaining Automatics - 17
Remaining At Large Bids – 0



Comments:

Ohio State beat out UCLA for the final #1 seed after UCLA's loss to
West Virginia last week. Despite UCLA having the #1 overall
RPI*, Ohio State has the #1 conference RPI and a superior last 10
record (9-1 to 7-3). UCLA has more top 25 wins but more losses
outside the top 25 (Ohio State has none). Texas A&M and Pittsburgh
are also in contention for #1 seeds.

Nine teams from the ACC? They are the #1 conference in the RPI and
have eight teams with an RPI in the top 35. Georgia Tech has
three top 25 wins and six top 50 wins (due to most of the ACC wins).

How about the SEC? They have five bids and all five are in the same
division, while no team from the SEC West made it. Well, no
SEC West team has a winning record while four in the East do. If one
division has Florida and Kentucky, is it more impressive to go 5-5
in the East or the West? That's before considering conference RPI.

Gonzaga could be in trouble if they don't win their conference
tournament. Their RPI currently is at 57 and their conference RPI
is 99.

It's been a while since Illinois has been a bubble team. This will
test my impartialness with the Schmolik 64. All the RPI numbers
look reasonable now. They look to be favored in all but one of their
remaining games, so a 9-7 record and a first round Big 10
tournament win should be enough to warrant a bid and keep me from
making a tough call on my own school. Then again, it's not
like the Selection Committee is any better (George Mason? Air Force?
Utah State? Tennessee a #2 seed?)


*RPI data courtesy of ESPN.com's Bracketology Section.

Schmolik