Bargains and busts
Top 20 values on the market -- and eight to avoid
Posted: Wednesday November 8, 2006 10:56AM; Updated: Wednesday November 8, 2006
4:05PM
Also in this column:
• The latest on Matsuzaka
• Sheffield's likely landing spot
• Burrell softens trade stance
• More news and notes

Bargain hunting in baseball may be tougher than ever this winter, when the
free-agent list is
mostly mundane and contracts are nonetheless expected to rise significantly.

The early signs all add up to a bonanza for the precious few available stars,
with Alfonso
Soriano, Carlos Lee, Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito and Japanese League wunderkind
Daisuke Matsuzaka --
who only gets to negotiate with one team, today's winning bidder -- about to
cash in big. The
low-rated, wet World Series notwithstanding, baseball is thriving. It's now a $6
billion industry,
and there's lots of loot to go around. As usual, of course, a lot of it will be
spent foolishly
(you know Orioles owner Peter Angelos is itching to overspend).

Yet, there will still be a few deals out there, and shrewd general managers
(Billy Beane, Omar
Minaya and Kenny Williams, to name a few) are sure to find them. I'm not sure if
anyone is going
to be able to duplicate the steal of last winter, Frank Thomas,whom Beane
grabbed for a guaranteed
$500,000 (plus $3 million in incentives). But if you look hard enough, you'll
surely find some
worthwhile purchases, even on the decidedly unexciting list of 191 free agents.
Here's my 20
potential bargains:

Bargains

Randy Wolf went 4-0 with a 5.56 ERA but figures to be stronger next season as
his comeback from
Tommy John surgery continues.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
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1. Randy Wolf, starting pitcher. They say it takes a full year to recover from
Tommy John surgery,
a normally successful procedure that requires patience. Wolf came back last year
and didn't lose a
game, but he probably wasn't yet at full strength. Now he should be.

2. Frank Catalanotto, outfielder. Name another .297 career hitter who's never
made more than $2.75
million. The essence of consistency, he's batted between .293 and .301 the past
four years. He's a
solid everyday player at a backup's price.

3. Thomas, DH. The only reason he makes the list is that the reported figures
being talked about
aren't even close to what he's worth. One report suggested they were discussing
a two-year deal
for $9 million, another was two years for $15 million.

4. Vicente Padilla, starting pitcher. One former MVP said Padilla had "the best
stuff of any
free-agent pitcher.'' And yet his pay isn't expected to be close to the top-tier
pitchers, thanks
to a driving mishap and some career inconsistency.

5. Moises Alou, outfielder. Sure, he's old (40). Yes, he's injury prone. No
question, he can make
Barry Bonds look fleet. Even so, the man can rake. When he plays, he's one of
the more productive
corner outfielders around. Better yet, he might have to settle for a one-year
contract.

6. Chad Bradford, reliever. One of Minaya's many bargain-basement acquisitions
that worked,
Bradford won the confidence of Willie Randolph to the point where he got as much
October airtime
as any other Mets reliever.

7. Jason Schmidt, starting pitcher. He's going to get a huge deal but maybe not
one to match Zito
or Matsuzaka. Schmidt's main problem is a lack of hype. The second is the belief
he's headed home
to Seattle. If he goes anywhere else, it will be a surprise.

8. Bonds, outfielder. A lot of teams will avoid him because he doesn't move like
he used to, and
more will avoid him because they don't want to deal with his considerable
baggage. The Giants
started what appears to be testy talks by saying they no longer are aiming to
build around him.
But the guess here is they take him back for something just north of $10
million. Considering
someone is going to trade players for the right to pay Gary Sheffield $13
million, Bonds, who
finished strong and had a .999 OPS overall, looks reasonably priced from here.

9. Juan Pierre, outfielder. He won't come cheap, but at say $7 million a year,
that's still barely
half what Rafael Furcal makes. Not bad for a bonafide leadoff hitter.

10. Steve Trachsel, starting pitcher. OK, so he isn't getting a Purple Heart for
that abbreviated
playoff appearance. But he produced 15 wins for $2.5 million in 2006, a bargain
by any standard.

11. Ron Villone, reliever. The guy is a pro who takes the ball and doesn't
complain. The one worry
would be whether he suffered from the same Torre Burnout that got Paul Quantrill
and Tanyon
Sturtze before him.

12. Bernie Williams, outfielder. He only wants to play for the Yankees, if he
plays at all. That
sort of hurts his leverage, even with Scott Boras representing him.

13. Kerry Wood, starting pitcher (or reliever). He's a huge gamble. But think of
the possibilities
if he makes it back. When healthy, he's as talented as anyone.




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14. Orlando Hernandez, starting pitcher. He's a threat to win an October game or
to come up with a
calf tear out of nowhere. He's a rarity in the modern game in that he's never
been paid what he's
worth.

15. Bengie Molina, catcher. Minaya, a pretty good judge of talent, was prepared
to pay him $20
million last year before Molina overplayed his hand into a one-year, $5 million
Blue Jays deal.
Things didn't work out in Toronto, so it could be two years in a row that Molina
doesn't get what
he wants on the free-agent market.

16. Greg Maddux, starting pitcher. He's looking for a two-year deal, which seems
like a lot for a
man who already has pitched long enough for 333 victories. But a team could
probably get two years
of Maddux for what it takes to sign Roger Clemens for four months.

17. Mike Piazza, catcher. The man can still hit. And he still can't throw. He's
basically the same
guy who left New York, just with a much lower pricetag attached to him.

18. Chan Ho Park, starting pitcher. With the albatross of the $65 million
contract removed (not
that all of us wouldn't like a similar albatross), maybe he'll go back to being
the pitcher he can
be.

19. Jose Guillen, outfielder. Tremendous talent, terrible year, attitude
questions ... just the
sort of recipe for a bargain.

20. Richard Hidalgo, outfielder. He took the year off to clear his head. But
he's still only 31,
and not all that far removed from being a $10 million-a-year player.

The market, such as it is, will produce quite a few busts, as well. Or if not
busts, players who
don't come close to living up to their enormous contracts. Here's a guess as to
who they might be:

Busts

Carlos Lee has hit more than 30 home runs in each of the past four seasons.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
1. Carlos Lee, outfielder. He's a threat and he can hit, and he'll get his
money, quite possibly
even from a National League team (the Astros, Cubs and maybe even the Mets will
be bidding). But
he looks like a DH waiting to happen, and that wait might be shorter than you'd
imagine.

2. Mark Loretta, second baseman. Maybe someone will notice that .309 slugging
percentage on the
road, maybe not. In any case, he doesn't look like he's going to get back to the
man who compiled
200-plus hits for the Padres in 2004.

3. Gary Matthews Jr., outfielder. Give the guy credit for his superb '06 season.
But be
forewarned, he's had only one big year. He'd be better off staying in Texas with
hitting coach
Rudy Jaramillo but it doesn't look like that's happening, not when someone's
going to open the
coffers and pay like crazy for someone who may turn out to be a one-year wonder.

4. Jeff Suppan, starting pitcher. He made himself millions in October, when he
was a playoff hero
and political pitchman in Missouri. You couldn't turn your TV on in St. Louis
without finding out
how he and Kurt Warner really dislike stem-cell research. But I digress. The
smart money says
never to pay for one monster month when there's a whole career to weigh.
Sometime in the midst of
his heroics we started hearing how he might make "Carl Pavano money.'' I suppose
that refers to
$10 million a year given to a lifetime .500 pitcher. Just hearing that name
might give teams
pause, however. My two cents: Both Suppan and Jeff Weaver might be wise to stay
on Cardinals
pitching coach Dave Duncan's program.

5. Julio Lugo, infielder. Looked like a star with the Devil Rays, but by the end
he was behind
Marlon Anderson in the Dodgers' playing-time hierarchy. He's a versatile player.
But is he worth
the $8-10 million he might seek?

6. Ted Lilly, starting pitcher. He's tough, no question about that, as evidenced
by his TKO over
Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. We can be pretty sure Lilly's not returning to
Toronto. But there
are a lot of teams chasing serviceable pitching, probably a little too hard.

7. Craig Wilson, first baseman. Showed all the spark of a 15-watt bulb after
getting out of
Pittsburgh and getting a chance with the Yankees.

8. Gil Meche, starting pitcher. Looks from here like the classic underachieving
big right-hander,
the West Coast's version of Kris Benson. Someone's going to pay an arm and a leg
to get a pretty
good arm. Yet, even throwing 95 mph with great breaking stuff, he's never been
the consistent
winner he should be.




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Dissecting Daisuke



The Yankees may be favored to land Matsuzaka, but the Rangers, Mets, Red Sox and
Cubs are among
other clubs also expected to make viable bids by today's deadline. Matsuzaka may
be the catch of
the winter, and the big-spending Yankees, Mets and Red Sox have to like the fact
that the posting
fee isn't subject to the luxury tax.

The unusual posting system, whereby only one team wins the right to negotiate
and the posting fee
is returned if the player goes unsigned, is already coming under fire before the
winner is known.
"The posting rules favor large-market clubs," one general manager said. "They're
outdated and ripe
for tampering."

There have already been reports of tampering accusations in Japan, and it's no
wonder. The
existing rules invite suspicion and maybe more.

The last superstar who posted, Ichiro Suzuki, wound up as one of the biggest
bargains in baseball,
$14 million over three years. While the system seems to work against the player,
that sort of
price cut isn't expected this time, not with Boras expected to invoke Roy Oswalt
as a comparison
(Oswalt got $73 million for five years). The leverage is that Matsuzaka can
return to Japan and
become a full-fledged free agent one year from now.

Sheffield update
Having already rejected several proposals for Sheffield, including an Orioles
offer that included
Benson, the Yankees made the right call to exercise Sheffield's option. But
they'd probably prefer
not to let the bidding drag beyond the next week or two. As one competing
executive pointed out,
"Between the wrist and attitude, there are a lot of questions."

In other words, the Yankees ought not to get greedy, not as greedy as Greedy
Gary. Seven teams are
said to be involved -- the Cubs, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Orioles, Tigers and
Indians -- but the
Yankees are hoping their decision to officially exercise the $13 million option
for 2007 will show
how serious they are about trading him and spur better offers. The Cubs, who may
yet lose third
baseman Aramis Ramirez and have money to spend, are a logical spot, but Chicago
is also looking at
bidding on Soriano.

And while the Cubs shouldn't think Sheffield will be satisfied without an
extension, they may have
reason to believe he'll be less upset to go there, based on the word of his
pseudo-agent Rufus
Williams (a pseudo agent is a guy who represents someone without much experience
and for very
little pay), who told the Chicago Tribune that Sheffield could tolerate the Cubs
or White Sox. The
White Sox like Sheffield but don't really need him. The Yankees might prefer to
ship Sheffield to
the NL, anyway.

And here's another advantage for the Cubs, who have relief pitching to offer: If
they get him,
they could try to tell him that the street that abuts right field was named for
him. It is, after
all, Sheffield Avenue.






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