As this concerns college basketball, I know this is slightly off- subject, but I think there are some here who may be interested in helping with a project I...
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lk_maxwell@...
Aug 9, 2001 3:45 pm
I have just been reading through this thread and this is exactly the type of project I would be willing to have over at my website, ...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Aug 16, 2001 12:28 am
I did a quick analysis of the Charlotte Sting, who went 1-10 to start the season and 17-4 to end the season, to finish at 18-14. I'd like to do a historical...
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harlanzo@...
Aug 17, 2001 12:21 pm
I can think of a couple of less dramatic but still streaky teams. the 95-96 cavs made the playoffs after a 0-7 (or 8) start. AFter a really mediocre start,...
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Michael K. Tamada
tamada@...
Aug 17, 2001 12:46 pm
... Though you conclusion is correct, I don't think the formula you used is correct. E.g. if a team goes 1-10, with a true probability of winning of .563,...
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Charles Steinhardt
charles@...
Aug 17, 2001 3:26 pm
I once looked at the question of whether baseball teams were "streaky" from a mathematical point of view. For anybody familiar with generating functions I'd...
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John Grasso
johng@...
Aug 17, 2001 3:44 pm
I've recently being doing some research on the 1970-71 NBA season (individual high games - not streaks). This was the first year for the Buffalo, Cleveland...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Aug 17, 2001 4:11 pm
... the ... I just use the BINOMDIST() function in excel to calculate the probabilities of exceedences. It is pretty similar, if not the same to what MikeT...
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John Grasso
johng@...
Aug 17, 2001 4:24 pm
... The 6-4 wasn't quite at the end of the season - after that hot streak they went 4-19 to finish the season - still they won 10 of their 15 victories in ...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Aug 17, 2001 4:33 pm
... is ... winning of ... occuring, ... Because ... 17-4 ... The multiplication of the two numbers doesn't seem quite right. My calculations would have been...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Aug 17, 2001 5:21 pm
... "streaky" ... generating ... have ... Horrible how work gets in the way of actual quality science. ... more ... and ... games, a ... team's ... Pitching...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Aug 17, 2001 5:41 pm
... Something I realized about this analysis is that there are a lot of _possible_ streaks in a season. Though the 7-0 streak at the end had a 0.7% chance of...
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Charles Steinhardt
charles@...
Aug 17, 2001 6:06 pm
... Well, the other work I'm doing is (hopefully) quality science too... :) ... I might suggest a few things, though admittedly without facts to back them up....
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Charles Steinhardt
charles@...
Aug 17, 2001 6:59 pm
I really need to dig up that paper... :)...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Aug 17, 2001 8:49 pm
... Lucky bum. ... baseball and ... easy for ... imagine ... every ... less ... momentum, and ... I have my doubts about this given the general info suggesting...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Aug 17, 2001 9:12 pm
Forgot to finish the formula on Win% calculations... ... is ... Win%A_B = [Win%A*(1-Win%B)]/[Win%A*(1-Win%B)+(1-Win%A)*Win%B] ...
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Dean LaVergne
deanlav@...
Aug 18, 2001 1:06 am
... From: Charles Steinhardt [mailto:charles@...] 2) There is no equivalent of the free throw in baseball, and in fact all new stadia are forced to...
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Charles Steinhardt
charles@...
Aug 18, 2001 1:35 am
Very interesting (and obviously not what I'd expect looking from the point of view of a fan). Anybody know why the FT disparity has dropped (and how strongly...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Aug 30, 2001 1:27 am
... Given the extra work I did to evaluate the odds of a x% team having a streak of a certain type, I figured I'd go back to this post and post the actual odds...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Sep 11, 2001 12:37 am
The concept of similarity scores is one that Bill James viewed as one of his most important. His introduction to the method in the '86 Abstract: The most...
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Michael K. Tamada
tamada@...
Sep 11, 2001 1:08 am
Just some thoughts off the top of my head: I agree that this is something that ought to be done for basketball. I'm a little leery of the work that's been...
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harlanzo@...
Sep 11, 2001 1:27 am
To me, the problem that most jumps out in triyng to create similarity scores in basketball is that the sum total of a basketball player's contributions are not...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Sep 11, 2001 2:15 am
... something ... work ... to see ... I've asked Bill about the approach he took and why he took it. I don't expect to hear back anytime soon. ... useful ... ...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Sep 11, 2001 2:35 am
... This being the case a study might still be ... (ie ... I think we should start here, but not limit it this way. Your example of Houston and Blackman is...
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Michael K. Tamada
tamada@...
Sep 12, 2001 7:37 am
... [...] ... The weights are not scalar, but are instead implicitly contained in a matrix. I usually use a stat package called SPSS but I just checked and ...
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Mike Goodman
msg_53@...
Sep 13, 2001 4:05 am
... Excellent move, Dean ... This is one reason I have concentrated on combining all scoring- related data into one "scoring ability" number. It seems quite...
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Mike Goodman
msg_53@...
Sep 13, 2001 4:26 am
... ....discriminant analysis and logistical regression .... Euclidean distance, ... distance does NOT take into account the second ... others. ... A friend of...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Sep 13, 2001 5:16 pm
I looked a little more at James' rules and figured that I wouldn't take a more rigorous cut and just adapt what he had. I decided to start with season...
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Dean Oliver
deano@...
Sep 13, 2001 6:26 pm
There were slight errors in my calcs on the previous post. I'm working on slight tweaks to the method (weights are too heavy on blocks and steals, I think,...
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deano@...
Sep 14, 2001 2:43 am
Well, I'm learning that season totals are pretty good for comparisons of most things, but may not reflect what we often think about. Looking at things as a...
