Thanks for the promo Dean. I'd have been disappointed if you agreed with me on everything, that ain't what this list is about. 8^) ... certainly ... together ...
1314
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 7, 2002 9:19 pm
... So it sounded like you were suggesting Sacramento as the team to beat. A few years ago, someone on the internet kept track of people's forecasts of...
1315
harlanzo
Oct 8, 2002 12:56 am
... think ... the ... MJ will miss games again. There has been talk of monitoring his minutes better but I assume collins and MJ will forget about that by ...
1316
John Hollinger
alleyoop2
Oct 8, 2002 3:26 am
I got my copy of the book in the mail today, so it should be in stores any day now. As far as Sacramento, yes I do think they are the team to beat, although I...
1317
Michael K. Tamada
tamada2
Oct 8, 2002 4:45 am
... [...] ... [...] ... Yes, Hughes in a good year might be about equivalent to Fox in overall ability, but I agree with Harlanzo, they're polar opposites in...
1318
Michael K. Tamada
tamada2
Oct 8, 2002 5:14 am
On Tue, 8 Oct 2002, John Hollinger wrote: [...] ... Barry's 2002 season was indeed his best one so far, but was it really that much better than his 2000...
1319
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 8, 2002 4:14 pm
... expect ... in ... be ... really that ... is ... that steep ... awful ... the ... Same example that came to my mind. Both John and Brent have what I call...
1320
bchaikin@...
Oct 8, 2002 5:22 pm
Same example that came to my mind. Both John and Brent have what I call "unstable"; stats in that the efficient numbers they post are highly due to the fact...
1321
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 8, 2002 6:17 pm
... other ... at their ... what a ... (touches/min). as ... 1/4 of ... shooters ... handle it, ... guards ... and pass ... his career ... What Rick says about...
1322
harlanzo
Oct 8, 2002 6:47 pm
... that ... ways ... Do you know what the general decrease in efficiency a player experiences with more touches? I don't have numbers in front of me now but...
1323
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 8, 2002 7:03 pm
... It varies a lot. Stackhouse and Iverson are guys who aren't efficient but who are at about a constant efficiency without much regard to shots taken....
1324
bchaikin@...
Oct 8, 2002 8:13 pm
Do you know what the general decrease in efficiency a player experiences with more touches? I don't have numbers in front of me now but I wonder if you looked...
1325
harlanzo
Oct 9, 2002 12:20 am
... similar to ... simply ... way. so ... be one ... would you ... scored by ... who have ... 82 and - ... I think it is just simply a matter of seeing to what...
1326
bchaikin@...
Oct 9, 2002 3:52 am
I think it is just simply a matter of seeing to what extent fg% and to/possessions change in between 2 seasons of the same player. Take some examples of...
1327
Mike G
mikel_ind
Oct 9, 2002 2:18 pm
Bob, good job on the clarification of methods. I see line 1 and line 2 of the statistics headings are misaligned, and some of the categories are actually...
1328
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 9, 2002 2:43 pm
A key philosophy I've worked on is that players can only stay the same or get less efficient as they take on a greater load of the offense, given their...
1329
Mike G
mikel_ind
Oct 9, 2002 2:48 pm
... I still think the over-reliance on MJ last year led to his long minutes which led to his wearing down. This year, it may be different, with Stackhouse...
1330
bchaikin@...
Oct 9, 2002 5:47 pm
This is pretty radical. Does anyone know what team ppg differential typically produces in terms of W-L record? My guess is 6.3 ppg and 57-25 is closer to...
1331
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 9, 2002 7:18 pm
... 82 games ... similar), you ... differential is ... (actually ... for the ... wins, and ... winning six ... put won a ... two ... their ... plus or ... our ...
1332
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 9, 2002 7:41 pm
... My thought, too. But I really don't know. Not many 40 year old supermen around. ... one ... As usual, I'm off traveling in nevernever land without my...
1333
Mike G
mikel_ind
Oct 9, 2002 7:43 pm
I have sorted out 142 current (active last year) players who have at least 3 years in the league, and looked for trends in their productivities. In other...
1334
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 9, 2002 9:21 pm
... at ... than ... a ... weight ... So their tendex # divided by a wtd avg of the previous 2 years with the weights being 2 and 1? ... And these are by per 36...
1335
Richard Scott
aussievamp2
Oct 10, 2002 1:57 am
Have also seen that Bill James pythagorean method applied to the NBA to, to do this. The exponent, of course, is radically different. ... From:...
1336
Mike G
mikel_ind
Oct 10, 2002 2:05 am
... For no particular reason, I used the ratio 3:2. ... Per-36 is a quick way of saying it; it's really a 'projection' (or prediction, extrapolating to 36 min....
1337
Mike G
mikel_ind
Oct 10, 2002 6:24 am
Okay, back with an improved list of who's hot and who's not. Now I have a list of 240 guys who have played the last 4 years, and another 60 who have played 3...
1338
Michael K. Tamada
tamada2
Oct 10, 2002 1:12 pm
On Thu, 10 Oct 2002, Mike G wrote: [...] ... [...] ... Interesting stuff, it'll be interesting to see how much predictive value they have. Some of these stats...
1339
Michael K. Tamada
tamada2
Oct 10, 2002 1:22 pm
... And then there's DeanO's normal probability model approach. All of them I'm sure lead to similar results, I wonder if some of them are more accurate than...
1340
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 10, 2002 3:20 pm
... NBA to, to do this. The exponent, of course, is radically different. ... them ... There's ... I once compared the normal probability approach to different...
1341
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 10, 2002 3:27 pm
Not sure what inspired what, but the NBA GM's had their picks for bust out years, too. Online at http://www.nba.com/preview2002/General_Manager_Survey.html ...
1342
Dean Oliver
HoopStudies
Oct 10, 2002 5:42 pm
Gotta run pretty quick, but here are some of my #'s for the guys Bob calculated. I've always figured that how efficiently a player performs is a function of...
